(Table 1) Normalized difference vegetation index in control and warming plots, Abisco Research Station

Extreme winter warming events in the sub-Arctic have caused considerable vegetation damage due to rapid changes in temperature and loss of snow cover. The frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase due to climate change thereby increasing the potential for recurring vegetation damage in Arctic regions. Here we present data on vegetation recovery from one such natural event and multiple experimental simulations in the sub-Arctic using remote sensing, handheld passive proximal sensors and ground surveys. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recovered fast (2 years), from the 26% decline following one natural extreme winter warming event. Recovery was associated with declines in dead Empetrum nigrum (dominant dwarf shrub) from ground surveys. However, E. nigrum healthy leaf NDVI was also reduced (16%) following this winter warming event in experimental plots (both control and treatments), suggesting that non-obvious plant damage (i.e., physiological stress) had occurred in addition to the dead E. nigrum shoots that was considered responsible for the regional 26% NDVI decline. Plot and leaf level NDVI provided useful additional information that could not be obtained from vegetation surveys and regional remote sensing (MODIS) alone. The major damage of an extreme winter warming event appears to be relatively transitory. However, potential knock-on effects on higher trophic levels (e.g., rodents, reindeer, and bear) could be unpredictable and large. Repeated warming events year after year, which can be expected under winter climate warming, could result in damage that may take much longer to recover.

Composition and alteration of volcanic rocks of ODP Hole 119-738C

During ODP Leg 119 one basement hole was drilled at Site 738, on the Southern Kerguelen Plateau. The 38.2 m of basement rocks drilled comprises three basaltic aa-lava flows with basal and top breccias, overlain by Turanian marine carbonates. Site 738 basalts probably erupted near a fracture zone, and were emplaced during the plateau-forming stage of Kerguelen Plateau evolution under quiet, subaerial to shallow water conditions. The basalts are T-MORB, chemically resembling Mesozoic continental flood basalts of the southern hemisphere. Two slightly different magma batches are distinguished by Fe, Ti, Al, Zr, and REE concentrations. Prior to eruption, the magmas had undergone significant olivine and some clinopyroxene fractionation. Incompatible and immobile trace element concentrations and ratios point to a veined upper mantle source, where a refractory mineral assemblage retains Nb, Ta, and the HREE. The basaltic melts derived from this regionally veined, enriched upper mantle have high LREE, and especially Ba and Th concentrations and bear the DUPAL isotopic signature gained from deep- seated, recycled, old oceanic(?) crust. A saponite-celadonite secondary mineral assemblage confines the alteration temperature to <170°C. Alteration is accompanied by net gains of H2O, CO2, K2O, and Rb, higher oxidation, minor Na2O, SiO2 gains, and losses of V and CaO. Released Ca, together with Ca from seawater, precipitated as calcite in veins and vesicles, plumbed the circulation system and terminated the rock/open seawater interaction.

Eocene-Oligocene calcareous nannofossil events of ODP Sites from the Southern Ocean

The evolution of the Southern Ocean climate during the late Eocene-late Oligocene interval is examined through highresolution, quantitative calcareous nannofossil analyses on samples from the Southern Ocean sections on Maud Rise and Kerguelen Plateau. We determined the abundance patterns of the counted species to clarify the biostratigraphy, which we correlated with high-resolution magnetostratigraphy [Roberts, A.P., Bicknell, S.J., Byatt, J., Bohaty, S.M., Florindo, F., Harwood, D.M., 2003a. Magnetostratigraphic calibration of Southern Ocean diatom datums from the Eocene-Oligocene of Kerguelen Plateau (Ocean Drilling Program Sites 744 and 748). In: Florindo, F., Cooper, A.K., O'Brien, P.A. (Eds.), Antarctic Cenozoic Palaeoenvironments: Geologic Record and Models. Palaeogeogr., Palaeoclimatol., Palaeoecol. 198 145-168; Florindo, F., Roberts, A.P., in press. Eocene-Oligocene magnetobiochronology of ODP Sites 689 and 690, Maud Rise, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull.], and used this data to interpret paleoceanographic changes through the late Eocene to late Oligocene. Percentage plots of the individual species, compared with R-mode principal component and cluster analysis results, allowed us to divide the assemblages into three groups: temperate-water taxa, cool-water taxa, and no temperature-affinity taxa. We attempt correlations between these paleoecological groups and the major sea-surface temperature (SST) variations with tectonic and paleoceanographic changes in the Southern Ocean. During the late Eocene, the nannofossil assemblage data reveal that there were several minor SST decreases (coolings) from 36 to 34 Ma, before the Eocene/Oligocene (E/O) boundary. A sharp cooling event, dated at 33.54 Ma (earliest Oligocene), occurred about 160 kyr after the E/O boundary, which is dated at 33.7 Ma. Relatively stable, cool conditions are interpreted to persist until the latest Oligocene, when an increase in abundance of temperate-water taxa, which corresponds to an antithetical decrease in abundance of cool-water indicators, is recorded. On the basis of our dating, the opening of the Drake Passage, allowing shallow-water circulation, began by 33.54 Ma at the latest, while the establishment of deep-water connections through the Tasmanian Gateway occurred at 33 Ma, as suggested by Exon et al. [Proc. ODP, Init. Rep. 189 (2001) 1].

Paleomagnetic of basalts from ODP Site 145-883 on Detroit Seamount

Paleomagnetic data were measured from basaltic flows cored by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) at Site 883 on the summit of Detroit Seamount, located in the northernmost Emperor seamounts. These data are important because they reflect the paleolatitude of Hawaiian volcanism for the Late Cretaceous and bear upon geodynamic models of hotspot drift. A total of 143 samples were measured, from cores acquired at two ~20-30 m apart. Most samples gave apparently reliable magnetic directions that were analyzed in a tiered fashion to compute a composite inclination vs. depth curve. One hole gave 13 distinct inclination groups, the other 10, and the two were combined into nine groups thought to represent independent measurements of paleofield direction. These data indicate normal magnetic polarity and give a mean inclination of 61.5+10.6°/-6.4° and paleolatitude of 42.8+13.2°/-7.6° (95% confidence limits). This paleolatitude is 6.2° higher than results from another ODP site (884) drilled on the lower flank of the same seamount. The difference is thought to result partly from an age difference (1-3 Myr) and partly from incomplete averaging of paleosecular variation at both drill sites. Together, the data from the two sites reinforce the conclusion that the northern Emperor seamounts were formed far north of the present-day hotspot latitude (~19.5°N) and suggest prior estimates of the amount and rate of southward drift may have been low. This analysis also illustrates uncertainties in determining paleolatitude from a small number of lava flow units from a single drill site.

Age determination of sediment core NP90-52 (Table 1)

Data on glacial erosion have been compiled and synthesised using a wide range of sediment budget and sediment yield studies from the Svalbard-Barents Sea region. The data include studies ranging in timescale from 1 to 10**6 yr, and in size of drainage basin from 101 to 105 km**2. They show a clear dependence of sediment yield on the mode of glacierization. Polar glaciers erode at rates comparable to those found in Arctic fluvial basins, or about 40 t/km**-2/ yr or 0.02 mm/yr. In contrast, rates of erosion by polythermal glaciers are 800-1000 t/km**2/ yr (or ca 0.3-0.4 mm/yr), while rates from fast-flowing glaciers are slightly more than twice this: 2100 t/km**2/yr (or 1 mm/yr). Similar rates are also found for large glacierized basins like those in the southwestern parts of the Barents Sea. In contrast to the situation in fluvial basins, in which sediment yield typically decreases with increasing basin size, the tendency in glacierized basins is for erosion to be independent of basin size. In studies of sediment yield from glaciers it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between material actually dislodged from the bedrock by glaciers and material dislodged by other processes in interglacial times and simply transported to a depocenter by a glacier. Our data suggest that pulses of sediment resulting from advance of a glacier over previously-dislodged material last on the order of 10**3 yr, and result in inferred erosion rates that are approximately 25% higher than long-term average rates of glacial erosion. The maximum sediment fluxes from the large Storfjorden and Bear Island drainage basins occurred in mid-Pleistocene. The onset of this period of high sediment yield coincided with the onset of the 100 kyr glacial cycle. We presume that this was the beginning of a period of increased glacial activity, but one in which glaciers still advanced and retreated frequently. During the last two to four 100 kyr cycles, however, sediment yields appear to have decreased. This decrease may be the result of the submergence of the Barents Sea. Glacier erosion would be much higher for a subaerial Barents Sea setting than it would be for a present day subsea Barents Sea. A classical question in Quaternary Geology is whether glaciers are more erosive than rivers. We surmise that if factors such as the lithology and the available potential energy (mgh) of the precipitation falling at a given altitude, whether in liquid or solid form, are held constant, then glaciers are vastly more effective agents of erosion than rivers.

Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.