23 resultados para Box-Cox transformation and quintile-based capability indices

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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This study examines the performance of series of two geomagnetic indices and series synthesized from a semi-empirical model of magnetospheric currents, in explaining the geomagnetic activity observed at Northern Hemipshere's mid-latitude ground-based stations. We analyse data, for the 2007 to 2014 period, from four magnetic observatories (Coimbra, Portugal; Panagyurishte, Bulgary; Novosibirsk, Russia and Boulder, USA), at geomagnetic latitudes between 40° and 50° N. The quiet daily (QD) variation is firstly removed from the time series of the geomagnetic horizontal component (H) using natural orthogonal components (NOC) tools. We compare the resulting series with series of storm-time disturbance (Dst) and ring current (RC) indices and with H series synthesized from the Tsyganenko and Sitnov (2005, doi:10.1029/2004JA010798) (TS05) semi-empirical model of storm-time geomagnetic field. In the analysis, we separate days with low and high local K-index values. Our results show that NOC models are as efficient as standard models of QD variation in preparing raw data to be compared with proxies, but with much less complexity. For the two stations in Europe, we obtain indication that NOC models could be able to separate ionospheric and magnetospheric contributions. Dst and RC series explain the four observatory H-series successfully, with values for the mean of significant correlation coefficients, from 0.5 to 0.6 during low geomagnetic activity (K less than 4) and from 0.6 to 0.7 for geomagnetic active days (K greater than or equal to 4). With regard to the performance of TS05, our results show that the four observatories separate into two groups: Coimbra and Panagyurishte, in one group, for which the magnetospheric/ionospheric ratio in QD variation is smaller, a dominantly QD ionospheric contribution can be removed and TS05 simulations are the best proxy; Boulder and Novosibirsk,in the other group, for which the ionospheric and magnetospheric contributions in QD variation can not be differentiated and correlations with TS05 series can not be made to improve. The main contributor to magnetospheric QD signal are Birkeland currents. The relatively good success of TS05 model in explaining ground-based irregular geomagnetic activity at mid-latitudes makes it an effective tool to classify storms according to their main sources. For Coimbra and Panagyurishte in particular, where ionospheric and magnetospheric daily contributions seem easier to separate, we can aspire to use the TS05 model for ensemble generation in space weather (SW) forecasting and interpretation of past SW events.

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Immobilization and anaesthesia of adult male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) is potentially risky for animals and scientists. A tiletamine/zolazepam injection is considered the most appropriate drug combination for field application in this species. Since appropriate dosages are difficult to assess due to uncertainties in weight estimation, we used photogrammetry-derived weight estimates to ensure precise post hoc calculations of dosages. We report on 15 intramuscular tiletamine/zolazepam immobilizations of post-moult males of the upper weight class at King George Island/Isla 25 de Mayo, in April 2010. Initial injections were made using blowpipe syringes. Mean tiletamine/zolazepam combined dosages of 0.71 mg/kg (SD ± 0.16) ranged between 0.46 and 1.01 mg/kg. In four cases, ketamine was added in dosages between 0.96 and 2.61 mg/kg. Mean induction period was 23 min (± 15), and the mean duration of the procedures from first injection to release of the animals required 96 min (± 51). Four seals exhibited periods of apnoea, and one case of an extended, repetitive, and potentially critical apnoea (> 25 and 8 min) required intervention in order to successfully re-initiate spontaneous respiration. All procedures resulted in proper immobilizations allowing for the deployment of the satellite tags on the seals' heads. The fact that even substantial deviations between the initial weight estimates and the photogrammetry-derived weight estimates had no apparent effect on the course of the immobilization underlines the drugs' wide safety margin in this species.

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We report the intercalibration of paleomagnetic secular variation (PSV) and radiocarbon dates of two expanded postglacial sediment cores from geographically proximal, but oceanographically and sedimentologically contrasting settings. The objective is to improve relative correlation and chronology over what can be achieved with either method alone. Core MD99-2269 was taken from the Húnaflóaáll Trough on the north Iceland shelf. Core MD99-2322 was collected from the Kangerlussuaq Trough on the east Greenland margin. Both cores are well dated, with 27 and 20 accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dates for cores 2269 and 2322, respectively. Paleomagnetic measurements made on u channel samples document a strong, stable, single-component magnetization. The temporal similarities of paleomagnetic inclination and declination records are shown using each core's independent calibrated radiocarbon age model. Comparison of the PSV records reveals that the relative correlation between the two cores could be further improved. Starting in the depth domain, tie points initially based on calibrated 14C dates are either adjusted or added to maximize PSV correlations. Radiocarbon dates from both cores are then combined on a common depth scale resulting from the PSV correlation. Support for the correlation comes from the consistent interweaving of dates, correct alignment of the Saksunarvatn tephra, and the improved correlation of paleoceanographic proxy data (percent carbonate). These results demonstrate that PSV correlation used in conjunction with 14C dates can improve relative correlation and also regional chronologies by allowing dates from various stratigraphic sequences to be combined into a single, higher dating density, age-to-depth model.

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The Pliocene period is the most recent time when the Earth was globally significantly (~3°C) warmer than today. However, the existing pCO2 data for the Pliocene are sparse and there is little agreement between the various techniques used to reconstruct palaeo-pCO2. Moreover, the temporal resolution of the published records does not allow a robust assessment of the role of declining pCO2 in the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (INHG) and a direct comparison to other proxy records are lacking. For the first time, we use a combination of foraminiferal (delta11B) and organic biomarker (alkenone-derived carbon isotopes) proxies to determine the concentration of atmospheric CO2 over the past 5 Ma. Both proxy records show that during the warm Pliocene pCO2 was between 330 and 400 ppm, i.e. similar to today. The decrease to values similar to pre-industrial times (275-285 ppm) occurred between 3.2 Ma and 2.8 Ma - coincident with the INHG and affirming the link between global climate, the cryosphere and pCO2.

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During the past five million yrs, benthic d18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial-interglacial CO2 variability of 60-100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate. Here, we drive a coupled climate-ice sheet model over the past five million years, inversely forced by a stacked benthic d18O record. We obtain continuous simulations of benthic d18O, sea level and CO2 that are mutually consistent. Our model shows CO2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the Early Pliocene. Furthermore, we simulate strong CO2 variability during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. These features are broadly supported by existing and new d11B-based proxy CO2 data, but less by alkenone-based records. The simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes. Our findings thus suggest a smaller Earth System Sensitivity than previously thought. This is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the Pliocene. The largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of East Antarctica, which governs the variability in sea level, but only modestly affects the modeled CO2 concentrations.