Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Grain size analyses, Ca/Ti and other selected elemental ratios from XRF core scanning of sediment cores from the Apulian Margin

An extensive, high-resolution, sedimentological-geochemical survey was done using geo-acoustics, XRF-core scans, ICP-AES, AMS 14C-dating and grain size analyses of sediments in 11 cores from the Gulf of Taranto, the southern Adriatic Sea, and the central Ionian Sea spanning the last 16 cal. ka BP. Comparable results were obtained for cores from the Gallipoli Shelf (eastern Gulf of Taranto), and the southern Adriatic Sea suggesting that the dominant provenance of Gallipoli Shelf sediments is from the western Adriatic mud belt. The 210Pb and 14C-dated high-accumulation-rate sediments permit a detailed reconstruction of climate variability over the last 16 cal. ka BP. Although, the Glacial-Interglacial transition is generally dry and stable these conditions are interrupted by two phases of increased detrital input during the Bølling-Allerød and the late Younger Dryas. The event during the Younger Dryas period is characterized by increased sediment inputs from southern Italian sources. This suggests that run-off was higher in southern- compared to northern Italy. At approximately ~ 7 cal. ka BP, increased detrital input from the Adriatic mud belt, related to sea level rise and the onset of deep water formation in the Adriatic Sea, is observed and is coincident with the end of sapropel S1 formation in the southern Adriatic Sea. During the mid-to-late Holocene we observed millennial-scale events of increased detrital input, e.g. during the Roman Humid Period, and of decreased detrital input, e.g., Medieval Warm Period. These dry/wet spells are consistent with variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A negative state of the NAO and thus a more advanced penetration of the westerlies into the central Mediterranean, that result in wet conditions in the research area concord with events of high detrital input e.g., during the Roman Humid Period. In contrast, a positive state of the NAO, resulting in dry conditions in the Mediterranean, dominated during events of rapid climate change such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Bronze Age.

Orbital-resolution Pliocene-Pleistocene simulations of CO2, sea level, global temperature and benthic d18O, and d11B-based proxy-CO2 data

During the past five million yrs, benthic d18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial-interglacial CO2 variability of 60-100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate. Here, we drive a coupled climate-ice sheet model over the past five million years, inversely forced by a stacked benthic d18O record. We obtain continuous simulations of benthic d18O, sea level and CO2 that are mutually consistent. Our model shows CO2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the Early Pliocene. Furthermore, we simulate strong CO2 variability during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. These features are broadly supported by existing and new d11B-based proxy CO2 data, but less by alkenone-based records. The simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes. Our findings thus suggest a smaller Earth System Sensitivity than previously thought. This is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the Pliocene. The largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of East Antarctica, which governs the variability in sea level, but only modestly affects the modeled CO2 concentrations.