9 resultados para Bias-corrected average forecast
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic.
Resumo:
Apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He (AHe) thermochronology is increasingly used for reconstructing geodynamic processes of the upper crust and the surface. Results of AHe thermochronology, however, are often in conflict with apatite fission track (AFT) thermochronology, yielding an inverted age-relationship with AHe dates older than AFT dates of the same samples. This effect is mainly explained by radiation damage of apatite, either impeding He diffusion or causing non-thermal annealing of fission tracks. So far, systematic age inversions have only been described for old and slowly cooled terranes, whereas for young and rapidly cooled samples 'too old' AHe dates are usually explained by the presence of undetected U and/or Th-rich micro-inclusions. We report apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He results for rapidly cooled volcanogenic samples deposited in a deep ocean environment with a relatively simple post-depositional thermal history. Robust age constraints are provided independently through sample biostratigraphy. All studied apatites have low U contents (< 5 ppm on average). While AFT dates are largely in agreement with deposition ages, most AHe dates are too old. For leg 43, where deposition age of sampled sediment is 26.5-29.5 Ma, alpha-corrected average AHe dates are up to 45 Ma, indicating overestimations of AHe dates up to 50%. This is explained by He implantation from surrounding host U-Th rich sedimentary components and it is shown that AHe dates can be "corrected" by mechanically abrading the outer part of grains. We recommend that particularly for low U-Th-apatites the possibility of He implantation should be carefully checked before considering the degree to which the alpha-ejection correction should be applied.
Resumo:
Fluid inclusions in variably altered diabase recovered from Ocean Drilling Program Legs 137 and 140 at Hole 504B, Costa Rica Rift, exhibit fluid salinities up to 3.7 times that of seawater values (11.7 wt% NaCl equivalent) and exhibit uncorrected homogenization temperatures of 125°C to 202°C. The liquid-dominated inclusions commonly are entrapped in zones of secondary plagioclase and may be primary in origin. Fluid salinities are similar to compositions of fluids venting on the seafloor (0.4-7.0 wt% NaCl) and overlap with those measured in metabasalt samples recovered from near the Kane Fracture Zone on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and from the Troodos ophiolite, Cyprus. The salinity variations may reflect hydration reactions involving formation of secondary mineral assemblages under rock-dominated conditions, which modify the ionic strength of hydrothermal fluids by consuming or liberating water and chloride ion. Rare CO2-CH4-bearing inclusions, subjacent to zones where talc after olivine becomes an important secondary mineral phase (1700 mbsf), may have formed due to local interaction of seawater and olivine at low water to rock ratios. Corrected average fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures exhibit a gradient from 159°C at a depth of 1370 mbsf to 183°C at a depth of 1992 mbsf and are in apparent equilibrium with the present conductive downhole temperatures. These data indicate that fluid inclusions may be used to estimate downhole temperatures if logging data are unavailable. The compositional and thermal evolution of the diabase-hosted fluids may reflect late-stage, off-axis circulation and conductive heating of compositionally modified seawater in the sheeted dike complex at Hole 504B.
Resumo:
Standing stocks and production rates for phytoplankton and heterotrophic bacteria were examined during four expeditions in the western Arctic Ocean (Chukchi Sea and Canada Basin) in the spring and summer of 2002 and 2004. Rates of primary production (PP) and bacterial production (BP) were higher in the summer than in spring and in shelf waters than in the basin. Most surprisingly, PP was 3-fold higher in 2004 than in 2002; ice-corrected rates were 1581 and 458 mg C/m**2/d respectively, for the entire region. The difference between years was mainly due to low ice coverage in the summer of 2004. The spatial and temporal variation in PP led to comparable variation in BP. Although temperature explained as much variability in BP as did PP or phytoplankton biomass, there was no relationship between temperature and bacterial growth rates above about 0°C. The average ratio of BP to PP was 0.06 and 0.79 when ice-corrected PP rates were greater than and less than 100 mg C/m**2/d, respectively; the overall average was 0.34. Bacteria accounted for a highly variable fraction of total respiration, from 3% to over 60% with a mean of 25%. Likewise, the fraction of PP consumed by bacterial respiration, when calculated from growth efficiency (average of 6.9%) and BP estimates, varied greatly over time and space (7% to >500%). The apparent uncoupling between respiration and PP has several implications for carbon export and storage in the western Arctic Ocean.
Resumo:
The western warm pools of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are a critical source of heat and moisture for the tropical climate system. Over the past five million years, global mean temperatures have cooled by 3-4 °C. Yet, current reconstructions of sea surface temperatures indicate that temperature in the warm pools has remained stable during this time. This stability has been used to suggest that tropical sea-surface temperatures are controlled by some sort of thermostat-like regulation. Here we reconstruct sea surface temperatures in the South China Sea, Caribbean Sea and western equatorial Pacific Ocean for the past five million years, using a combination of the Mg/Ca, TEXH86-and Uk'37 surface temperature proxies. Our data indicate that during the period of Pliocene warmth from about 5 to 2.6 million years ago, the western Pacific and western Atlantic warm pools were about 2 °C warmer than today. We suggest that the apparent lack of warming seen in the previous reconstructions was an artefact of low seawater Mg/Ca ratios in the Pliocene oceans. Taking this bias into account, our data indicate that tropical sea surface temperatures did change in conjunction with global mean temperatures. We therefore conclude that the temperature of the warm pools of the equatorial oceans during the Pliocene was not limited by a thermostat-like mechanism.
Resumo:
During Legs 127 and 128, we found a systematic error in the index property measurements, in that the wet bulk density, grain density, and porosity did not satisfy well-established interrelationships. We have found that an almost constant difference exists between the weight of water lost during drying and the volume of water lost. This discrepancy is independent of volume or water content of the sample. The water losses should be equal because the density of water is close to 1.0 g/cm**3. The pycnometer wet volume measurement has been identified as the source of the systematic error. The wet volume on average is 0.2 cm**3 too low. For the rare cases when the water content is negligible, there is no offset. The source of the wet volume error results from the partial vapor pressure of water in the pycnometer cell. Newly corrected tables of index properties measured during Legs 127 and 128 are included. The corrected index properties are internally consistent. The data are in better agreement with theoretical models that relate the index properties to other physical properties, such as thermal conductivity and acoustic velocity. In future, a standard volume sampler should be used, or the wet volume should be calculated from the dry volume and the water loss by weight.