Three species distribution models for the marine diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis of the Southern Ocean, links to NetCDF files

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

Crabeater seals (Lobodon carcinophaga) in the Weddell Sea during DRE1998 campaign

The crabeater seal (Lobodon carcinophaga) is the most abundant Antarctic seal and inhabits the circumpolar pack ice zone of the Southern Ocean. Until now, information on important environmental factors affecting its distribution as well as on foraging behaviour is limited. In austral summer 1998, 12 crabeater seals of both sexes and different age classes were equipped with satellitelinked dive recorders at Drescher Inlet (72.85°S, 19.26°E), eastern Weddell Sea. To identify suitable habitat conditions within the Weddell Sea, a maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling approach was implemented. The model revealed that the eastern and southern Weddell Sea is especially suitable for crabeater seals. Distance to the continental shelf break and sea ice concentration were the two most important parameters in modelling species distribution throughout the study period. Model predictions demonstrated that crabeater seals showed a dynamic response to their seasonally changing environment emphasized by the favoured sea ice conditions. Crabeater seals utilized ice-free waters substantially, which is potentially explained by the comparatively low sea ice cover of the Weddell Sea during summer 1998. Diving behaviour was characterized by short (>90 % = 0-4 min) and shallow (>90 % = 0-51 m) dives. This pattern reflects the typical summer and autumn foraging behaviour of crabeater seals. Both the distribution and foraging behaviour corresponded well with the life history of the Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), the preferred prey of crabeater seals. In general, predicted suitable habitat conditions were congruent with probable habitats of krill, which emphasizes the strong dependence on their primary prey.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Ages and diatom temperature values of DSDP sites in the western Pacific Ocean

Maximum entropy spectral analyses and a fitting test to find the best suitable curve for the modified time series based on the non-linear least squares method for Td (diatom temperature) values were performed for the Quaternary portion of the DSDP Sites 579 and 580 in the western North Pacific. The sampling interval averages 13.7 kyr in the Brunhes Chron (0-780 ka) and 16.5 kyr in the later portion of the Matuyama Chron (780-1800 ka) at Site 580, but increases to 17.3 kyr and 23.2 kyr, respectively, at Site 579. Among dominant cycles during the Brunhes Chron, there are 411.5 kyr and 126.0 kyr at Site 579, and 467.0 kyr and 136.7 kyr at Site 580 correspond to 413 kyr and 95 to 124 kyr of the orbital eccentricity. Minor cycles of 41.2 kyr at Site 579 and 41.7 kyr at Site 580 are near to 41 kyr of the obliquity (tilt). During the Matuyama Chron at Site 580, cycles of 49.7 kyr and 43.6 kyr are dominant. The surface-water temperature estimated from diatoms at the western North Pacific DSDP Sites 579 and 580 shows correlation with the fundamental Earth's orbital parameters during Quaternary time.

Mapped cetacean habitat suitability and richness in the Azores, links to ArcGIS files

Marine spatial planning and ecological research call for high-resolution species distribution data. However, those data are still not available for most marine large vertebrates. The dynamic nature of oceanographic processes and the wide-ranging behavior of many marine vertebrates create further difficulties, as distribution data must incorporate both the spatial and temporal dimensions. Cetaceans play an essential role in structuring and maintaining marine ecosystems and face increasing threats from human activities. The Azores holds a high diversity of cetaceans but the information about spatial and temporal patterns of distribution for this marine megafauna group in the region is still very limited. To tackle this issue, we created monthly predictive cetacean distribution maps for spring and summer months, using data collected by the Azores Fisheries Observer Programme between 2004 and 2009. We then combined the individual predictive maps to obtain species richness maps for the same period. Our results reflect a great heterogeneity in distribution among species and within species among different months. This heterogeneity reflects a contrasting influence of oceanographic processes on the distribution of cetacean species. However, some persistent areas of increased species richness could also be identified from our results. We argue that policies aimed at effectively protecting cetaceans and their habitats must include the principle of dynamic ocean management coupled with other area-based management such as marine spatial planning.

DNA alignment and Bayesian trees of partial sequences of COI, COIII and the haemocyanin functional unit f-g of 28 octopod species

Background: Octopods have successfully colonised the world's oceans from the tropics to the poles. Yet, successful persistence in these habitats has required adaptations of their advanced physiological apparatus to compensate impaired oxygen supply. Their oxygen transporter haemocyanin plays a major role in cold tolerance and accordingly has undergone functional modifications to sustain oxygen release at sub-zero temperatures. However, it remains unknown how molecular properties evolved to explain the observed functional adaptations. We thus aimed to assess whether natural selection affected molecular and structural properties of haemocyanin that explains temperature adaptation in octopods. Results: Analysis of 239 partial sequences of the haemocyanin functional units (FU) f and g of 28 octopod species of polar, temperate, subtropical and tropical origin revealed natural selection was acting primarily on charge properties of surface residues. Polar octopods contained haemocyanins with higher net surface charge due to decreased glutamic acid content and higher numbers of basic amino acids. Within the analysed partial sequences, positive selection was present at site 2545, positioned between the active copper binding centre and the FU g surface. At this site, methionine was the dominant amino acid in polar octopods and leucine was dominant in tropical octopods. Sites directly involved in oxygen binding or quaternary interactions were highly conserved within the analysed sequence. Conclusions: This study has provided the first insight into molecular and structural mechanisms that have enabled octopods to sustain oxygen supply from polar to tropical conditions. Our findings imply modulation of oxygen binding via charge-charge interaction at the protein surface, which stabilize quaternary interactions among functional units to reduce detrimental effects of high pH on venous oxygen release. Of the observed partial haemocyanin sequence, residue 2545 formed a close link between the FU g surface and the active centre, suggesting a role as allosteric binding site. The prevalence of methionine at this site in polar octopods, implies regulation of oxygen affinity via increased sensitivity to allosteric metal binding. High sequence conservation of sites directly involved in oxygen binding indicates that functional modifications of octopod haemocyanin rather occur via more subtle mechanisms, as observed in this study.