Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Pollen record and age determination of a sediment profile from Lake Teletskoye, Russia

A high-resolution pollen record from Lake Teletskoye documents the climate-related vegetation history of the northern Altai Mountain region during the last millennium. Siberian pine taiga with Scots pine, fir, spruce, and birch dominated the vegetation between ca. AD 1050 and 1100. The climate was similar to modern. In the beginning of the 12th century, birch and shrub alder increased. Lowered pollen concentrations and simultaneous peaks in herbs (especially Artemisia and Poaceae), ferns, and charcoal fragments point to colder and more arid climate conditions than before, with frequent fire events. Around AD 1200, regional climate became warmer and more humid than present, as revealed by an increase of Siberian pine and decreases of dry herb taxa and charcoal contents. Climatic conditions were rather stable until ca. AD 1410. An increase of Artemisia pollen may reflect slightly drier climate conditions between AD 1410 and 1560. Increases in Alnus, Betula, Artemisia, and Chenopodiaceae pollen and in charcoal particle contents may reflect further deterioration of climate conditions between AD 1560 and 1810, consistent with the Little Ice Age. After AD 1850 the vegetation gradually approached the modern one, in conjunction with ongoing climate warming.

Palynology and radiocarbon dating on sediment profile PG1756 from Lake Billyakh, NE Siberia, Russia

In this study a radiocarbon-dated pollen record from Lake Billyakh (65°17'N, 126°47'E; 340 m a.s.l.) in the Verkhoyansk Mountains was used to reconstruct vegetation and climate change since about 15 kyr BP (1 kyr=1000 cal. yr). The pollen record and pollen-based biome reconstruction suggest that open cool steppe and grass and sedge tundra communities with Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, Caryophyllaceae and Selaginella rupestris dominated the area from 15 to 13.5 kyr BP. On the other hand, the constant presence of Larix pollen in quantities comparable to today's values points to the constant presence of boreal deciduous conifer trees in the regional vegetation during the last glaciation. A major spread of shrub tundra communities, including birch (Betula sect. Nanae), alder (Duschekia fruticosa) and willow (Salix) species, is dated to 13.5-12.7 kyr BP, indicating a noticeable increase in precipitation toward the end of the last glaciation, particularly during the Allerød Interstadial. Between 12.7 and 11.4 kyr BP pollen percentages of herbaceous taxa rapidly increased, whereas shrub taxa percentages decreased, suggesting strengthening of the steppe communities associated with the relatively cold and dry Younger Dryas Stadial. However, the pollen data in hand indicate that Younger Dryas climate was less severe than the climate during the earlier interval from 15 to 13.5 kyr BP. The onset of the Holocene is marked in the pollen record by the highest values of shrub and lowest values of herbaceous taxa, suggesting a return of warmer and wetter conditions after 11.4 kyr BP. Percentages of tree taxa increase gradually and reach maximum values after 7 kyr BP, reflecting the spread of boreal cold deciduous and taiga forests in the region. An interval between 7 and 2 kyr BP is noticeable for the highest percentages of Scots spine (Pinus subgen. Diploxylon), spruce (Picea) and fir (Abies) pollen, indicating mid-Holocene spread of boreal forest communities in response to climate amelioration and degradation of the permafrost layer.

(Supplement) Regeneration of Pinus sylvestris, disturbance residuals and soil properties 5 years after a mixed-severity wildfire in the inner Italian Alps

We analyzed the abundance of Scots pine regeneration in a 257 ha wildfire in an inner-alpine forest. We sampled regeneration, percent soil cover by classes, physical and chemical properties of topsoils (A horizon, 0-5 cm) under four fire severity levels (unburned, moderate, moderate/high, high severity). 5 plots per severity level, circular (R= 3m). Analysis methods for soil properties as described in the paper.

R-script modified VS-Lite model

Drought is a key factor affecting forest ecosystem processes at different spatio-temporal scales. For accurately modeling tree functioning ? and thus for producing reliable simulations of forest dynamics ? the consideration of the variability in the timing and extent of drought effects on tree growth is essential, particularly in strongly seasonal climates such as in the Mediterranean area. Yet, most dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) do not include this intra-annual variability of drought effects on tree growth. We present a novel approach for linking tree-ring data to drought simulations in DVMs. A modified forward model of tree-ring width (VS-Lite) was used to estimate seasonal- and site-specific growth responses to drought of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), which were subsequently implemented in the DVM ForClim. Ring-width data from sixteen sites along a moisture gradient from Central Spain to the Swiss Alps, including the dry inner Alpine valleys, were used to calibrate the forward ring-width model, and inventory data from managed Scots pine stands were used to evaluate ForClim performance. The modified VS-Lite accurately estimated the year-to-year variability in ring-width indices and produced realistic intra-annual growth responses to soil drought, showing a stronger relationship between growth and drought in spring than in the other seasons and thus capturing the strategy of Scots pine to cope with drought. The ForClim version including seasonal variability in growth responses to drought showed improved predictions of stand basal area and stem number, indicating the need to consider intra-annual differences in climate-growth relationships in DVMs when simulating forest dynamics. Forward modeling of ring-width growth may be a powerful tool to calibrate growth functions in DVMs that aim to simulate forest properties in across multiple environments at large spatial scales.