Three species distribution models for the marine diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis of the Southern Ocean, links to NetCDF files

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

(Figures S2a-c) Phase diagrams of the upper crust, the lower crust and the upper mantle based on averaged compositions of the oceanic crust and mantle

The age of the subducting Nazca Plate off Chile increases northwards from 0 Ma at the Chile Triple Junction (46°S) to 37 Ma at the latitude of Valparaíso (32°S). Age-related variations in the thermal state of the subducting plate impact on (a) the water influx to the subduction zone, as well as on (b) the volumes of water that are released under the continental forearc or, alternatively, carried beyond the arc. Southern Central Chile is an ideal setting to study this effect, because other factors for the subduction zone water budget appear constant. We determine the water influx by calculating the crustal water uptake and by modeling the upper mantle serpentinization at the outer rise of the Chile Trench. The water release under forearc and arc is determined by coupling FEM thermal models of the subducting plate with stability fields of water-releasing mineral reactions for upper and lower crust and hydrated mantle. Results show that both the influx of water stored in, and the outflux of water released from upper crust, lower crust and mantle vary drastically over segment boundaries. In particular, the oldest and coldest segments carry roughly twice as much water into the subduction zone as the youngest and hottest segments, but their release flux to the forearc is only about one fourth of the latter. This high variability over a subduction zone of < 1500 km length shows that it is insufficient to consider subduction zones as uniform entities in global estimates of subduction zone fluxes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.