29 resultados para Autoregressive-Moving Average model

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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A high-resolution record of foraminiferal fragmentation (a dissolution indicator) for the last 250 k.y. (isotopic Stages 1 to 7) is identified in the upper 61.9 m of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 828A, west Vanuatu. This record is comparable in detail to the atmospheric CO2 record and the d18O stack. Phase shifts between preservation spikes and maximum ice volumes (d18O of Globigerinoides sacculifer) are analogous to those on Ontong Java Plateau. Mass spectrometer (AMS14C) dating of a sample taken at the base of dissolution cycle B1 and the position of the last glacial maximum indicates a lag in time of ~8 k.y. in the Vanuatu region for the last glacial termination. When dissolution spikes are compared with minimum ice volumes there is no phase shift for the last two glacial terminations. The difference between Vanuatu and Ontong Java Plateau may be explained by local CO2 sinks and the interplay between intermediate and deep water masses. Terrigenous input increasingly affected sediment of Hole 828A on the North d'Entrecasteaux Ridge (NDR) as it approached Espiritu Santo Island. Mud and silt suspended in mid-water flows become important after 125 ka, while turbidites bypass the New Hebrides Trench only towards the last glacial maximum (LGM). Terrigenous supply seems to affect the lysocline profile that changed from an "open ocean" to a "near continent" type, thus favoring dissolution. Fragmentation of planktonic foraminifers is a more sensitive indicator of lysocline variations than is foraminiferal susceptibility to dissolution, the foraminiferal dissolution index, the abundance of benthic foraminifers, or CaCO3 content. A modern foraminiferal lysocline for the neighboring area (between 10°S and 30°S, and 160°E and 180°E) is found at 3.1 km below sea level, compared to west Vanuatu where it is shallower. The past lysocline level was deeper than 3086 m during intervals of dissolution minima, and ranged from ~2550 to 3000 m during intervals of dissolution maxima. The high sedimentation rates (in the order of 10 to 50 cm/k.y.) found in Hole 828A offer a great potential for future high-resolution studies either in this hole or other western localities along the NDR. Areas of high sedimentation near continental regions have been discarded for paleoceanographic and/or paleoclimatic studies. Nonetheless, conditions analogous to those found in Hole 828A are expected to occur in many trench areas around the world where mid-water flows have preserved as yet undiscovered fine high-resolution sedimentary records.

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We present tools for rapid and quantitative detection of sediment lamination. The BMPix tool extracts color and gray-scale curves from images at pixel resolution. The PEAK tool uses the gray-scale curve and performs, for the first time, fully automated counting of laminae based on three methods. The maximum count algorithm counts every bright peak of a couplet of two laminae (annual resolution) in a smoothed curve. The zero-crossing algorithm counts every positive and negative halfway-passage of the curve through a wide moving average, separating the record into bright and dark intervals (seasonal resolution). The same is true for the frequency truncation method, which uses Fourier transformation to decompose the curve into its frequency components before counting positive and negative passages. We applied the new methods successfully to tree rings, to well-dated and already manually counted marine varves from Saanich Inlet, and to marine laminae from the Antarctic continental margin. In combination with AMS14C dating, we found convincing evidence that laminations in Weddell Sea sites represent varves, deposited continuously over several millennia during the last glacial maximum. The new tools offer several advantages over previous methods. The counting procedures are based on a moving average generated from gray-scale curves instead of manual counting. Hence, results are highly objective and rely on reproducible mathematical criteria. Also, the PEAK tool measures the thickness of each year or season. Since all information required is displayed graphically, interactive optimization of the counting algorithms can be achieved quickly and conveniently.

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The Drake Passage (DP) is the major geographic constriction for the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and exerts a strong control on the exchange of physical, chemical, and biological properties between the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean basins. Resolving changes in the flow of circumpolar water masses through this gateway is, therefore, crucial for advancing our understanding of the Southern Ocean's role in global ocean and climate variability. Here, we reconstruct changes in DP throughflow dynamics over the past 65,000 y based on grain size and geochemical properties of sediment records from the southernmost continental margin of South America. Combined with published sediment records from the Scotia Sea, we argue for a considerable total reduction of DP transport and reveal an up to ~40% decrease in flow speed along the northernmost ACC pathway entering the DP during glacial times. Superimposed on this long-term decrease are high-amplitude, millennial-scale variations, which parallel Southern Ocean and Antarctic temperature patterns. The glacial intervals of strong weakening of the ACC entering the DP imply an enhanced export of northern ACC surface and intermediate waters into the South Pacific Gyre and reduced Pacific-Atlantic exchange through the DP ("cold water route"). We conclude that changes in DP throughflow play a critical role for the global meridional overturning circulation and interbasin exchange in the Southern Ocean, most likely regulated by variations in the westerly wind field and changes in Antarctic sea ice extent.

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Paleoenvironmental proxy data for ocean properties, eolian sediment input, and continental rainfall based on high-resolution analyses of sediment cores from the southwestern Black Sea and the northernmost Gulf of Aqaba were used to infer hydroclimatic changes in northern Anatolia and the northern Red Sea region during the last ~7500 years. Pronounced and coherent multicentennial variations in these records reveal patterns that strongly resemble modern temperature and rainfall anomalies related to the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). These patterns suggest a prominent role of AO/NAO-like atmospheric variability during the Holocene beyond interannual to interdecadal timescales, most likely originating from solar output changes.

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Between 1999 and 2001, a 724 m long ice core was drilled on Akademii Nauk, the largest glacier on Severnaya Zemlya, Russian Arctic. The drilling site is located near the summit. The core is characterized by high melt-layer content. The melt layers are caused by melting and even by rain during the summer. We present high-resolution data of density, electrical conductivity (dielectrical profiling), stable water isotopes and melt-layer content for the upper 136 m (120 m w.e.) of the ice core. The dating by isotopic cycles and electrical conductivity peak identification suggests that this core section covers approximately the past 275 years. Singularities of volcanogenic and anthropogenic origin provide well-defined additional time markers. Long-term temperatures inferred from 12 year running mean averages of d18O reach their lowest level in the entire record around 1790. Thereafter the d18O values indicate a continuously increasing mean temperature on the Akademii Nauk ice cap until 1935, interrupted only by minor cooling episodes. The 20th century is found to be the warmest period in this record.

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Terrigenous sediment supply, marine transport, and depositional processes along tectonically active margins are key to decoding turbidite successions as potential archives of climatic and seismic forcings. Sequence stratigraphic models predict coarse-grained sediment delivery to deep-marine sites mainly during sea-level fall and lowstand. Marine siliciclastic deposition during transgressions and highstands has been attributed to sustained connectivity between terrigenous sources and marine sinks facilitated by narrow shelves. To decipher the controls on Holocene highstand turbidite deposition, we analyzed 12 sediment cores from spatially discrete, coeval turbidite systems along the Chile margin (29° - 40°S) with changing climatic and geomorphic characteristics but uniform changes in sea level. Sediment cores from intraslope basins in north-central Chile (29° - 33°S) offshore a narrow to absent shelf record a shut-off of turbidite deposition during the Holocene due to postglacial aridification. In contrast, core sites in south-central Chile (36° - 40°S) offshore a wide shelf record frequent turbidite deposition during highstand conditions. Two core sites are linked to the Biobío river-canyon system and receive sediment directly from the river mouth. However, intraslope basins are not connected via canyons to fluvial systems but yield even higher turbidite frequencies. High sediment supply combined with a wide shelf and an undercurrent moving sediment toward the shelf edge appear to control Holocene turbidite sedimentation and distribution. Shelf undercurrents may play an important role in lateral sediment transport and supply to the deep sea and need to be accounted for in sediment-mass balances.

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A portable Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS), model EM27/SUN, was deployed onboard the research vessel Polarstern to measure the column-average dry air mole fractions of carbon dioxide (XCO2) and methane (XCH4) by means of direct sunlight absorption spectrometry. We report on technical developments as well as data calibration and reduction measures required to achieve the targeted accuracy of fractions of a percent in retrieved XCO2 and XCH4 while operating the instrument under field conditions onboard the moving platform during a 6-week cruise on the Atlantic from Cape Town (South Africa, 34° S, 18° E; 5 March 2014) to Bremerhaven (Germany, 54° N, 19° E; 14 April 2014). We demonstrate that our solar tracker typically achieved a tracking precision of better than 0.05° toward the center of the sun throughout the ship cruise which facilitates accurate XCO2 and XCH4 retrievals even under harsh ambient wind conditions. We define several quality filters that screen spectra, e.g., when the field of view was partially obstructed by ship structures or when the lines-of-sight crossed the ship exhaust plume. The measurements in clean oceanic air, can be used to characterize a spurious air-mass dependency. After the campaign, deployment of the spectrometer alongside the TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network) instrument at Karlsruhe, Germany, allowed for determining a calibration factor that makes the entire campaign record traceable to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards. Comparisons to observations of the GOSAT satellite and concentration fields modeled by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) demonstrate that the observational setup is well suited to provide validation opportunities above the ocean and along interhemispheric transects.

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It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

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In the largest global cooling event of the Cenozoic Era, between 33.8 and 33.5 Myr ago, warm, high-CO2 conditions gave way to the variable 'icehouse' climates that prevail today. Despite intense study, the history of cooling versus ice-sheet growth and sea-level fall reconstructed from oxygen isotope values in marine sediments at the transition has not been resolved. Here, we analyse oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios of benthic foraminifera, and integrate the results with the stratigraphic record of sea-level change across the Eocene-Oligocene transition from a continental-shelf site at Saint Stephens Quarry, Alabama. Comparisons with deep-sea (Sites 522 (South Atlantic) and 1218 (Pacific)) d18O and Mg/Ca records enable us to reconstruct temperature, ice-volume and sea-level changes across the climate transition. Our records show that the transition occurred in at least three distinct steps, with an increasing influence of ice volume on the oxygen isotope record as the transition progressed. By the early Oligocene, ice sheets were ~25% larger than present. This growth was associated with a relative sea-level decrease of approximately 105 m, which equates to a 67 m eustatic fall.

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The organic facies of Early and middle Cretaceous sediments drilled at DSDP Site 534 is dominated by terrestrially derived plant remains and charcoal. Marine organic matter is mixed with the terrestrial components, but through much of this period was diluted by the terrestrial material. The supply of terrestrial organic matter was high here because of the nearness of the shore and high runoff promoted by a humid temperate coastal climate. Reducing conditions favored preservation of both marine and terrestrial organic matter, the terrestrial materials having reached the site mostly in turbidity currents or in the slow-moving, near-bottom nepheloid layer. An increase in the abundance of terrestrial organic matter occurred when the sea level dropped in the Valanginian and again in the Aptian-Albian, because rivers dumped more terrigenous elastics into the Basin and marine productivity was lower at these times than when sea level was high. A model is proposed to explain the predominance of reducing conditions in the Valanginian-Aptian, of oxidizing conditions in the late Aptian, and of reducing conditions in the Albian-Cenomanian. The model involves influx of oxygen-poor subsurface waters from the Pacific at times of high or rising sea level (Valanginian-Aptian, and Albian- Cenomanian) and restriction of that influx at times of low sea level (late Aptian). In the absence of a supply of oxygenpoor deep water, the bottom waters of the North Atlantic became oxidizing in the late Aptian, probably in response to development of a Mediterranean type of circulation. The influx of nutrients from the Pacific led to an increase in productivity through time, accounting for an increase in the proportion of marine organic matter from the Valanginian into the Aptian and from the Albian to the Cenomanian. Conditions were dominantly oxidizing through the Middle Jurassic into the Berriasian, with temporary exceptions when bottom waters became reducing, as in the Callovian. Mostly terrestrial and some marine organic matter accumulated during the Callovian reducing episode. When Jurassic bottom waters were oxidizing, only terrestrial organic matter was buried in the sediments, in very small amounts.

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The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

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Siliciclastic sedimentation at Ocean Drilling Program Site 1017 on the southern slope of the Santa Lucia Bank, central California margin, responded closely to oceanographic and climatic change over the past ~130 ka. Variation in mean grain-size and sediment sorting within the ~25-m-thick succession from Hole 1017E show Milankovitch-band to submillenial-scale variation. Mean grain size of the "sortable silt" fraction (10-63 µm) ranges from 17.6 to 33.9 µm (average 24.8 µm) and is inversely correlated with the degree of sorting. Much of the sediment has a bimodal or trimodal grain-size distribution that is composed of distinct fine silt, coarse silt to fine sand, and clay-size components. The position of the mode and the sorting of each component changes through the succession, but the primary variation is in the presence or abundance of the coarse silt fraction that controls the overall mean grain size and sorting of the sample. The occurrence of the best-sorted, finest grained sediment at high stands of sea level (Holocene, marine isotope Substages 5c and 5e) reflect the linkage between global climate and the sedimentary record at Site 1017 and suggest that the efficiency of off-shelf transport is a key control of sedimentation on the Santa Lucia Slope. It is not clear what proportion of the variation in grain size and sorting may also be caused by variations in bottom current strength and in situ hydrodynamic sorting.