Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Elements and mineralogical compostions from different sediment cores off the southern China Sea

The mineralogy, major and trace elements, and neodymium and strontium isotopes of surface sediments in the South China Sea (SCS) are documented with the aim of investigating their applicability in provenance tracing. The results indicate that mineralogical compositions alone do not clearly identify the sources for the bulk sediments in the SCS. The Nd isotopic compositions of the SCS sediments show a clear zonal distribution. The most negative epsilon-Neodymium values were obtained for sediments from offshore South China (-13.0 to -10.7), while those from offshore Indochina are slightly more positive (-10.7 to -9.4). The Nd isotopic compositions of the sediments from offshore Borneo are even higher, with epsilon-Neodymium ranging from -8.8 to -7.0, and the sediments offshore from the southern Philippine Arc have the most positive epsilon-Neodymium values, from -3.7 to +5.3. This zonal distribution in epsilon-Neodymium is in good agreement with the Nd isotopic compositions of the sediments supplied by river systems that drain into the corresponding regions, indicating that Nd isotopic compositions are an adequate proxy for provenance tracing of SCS sediments. Sr isotopic compositions, in contrast, can only be used to identify the sediments from offshore South China and offshore from the southern Philippine Arc, as the 87Sr/86Sr ratios of sediments from other regions overlapped. Similar zonal distributions are also apparent in a La-Th-Sc discrimination diagram. Sediments fromthewestmargin of the SCS, such as those fromBeibuwan Bay, offshore fromHainan Island, offshore from Indochina, and from the Sunda Shelf plot in the same field, while those offshore from the northeastern SCS, offshore from Borneo, and offshore from the southern Philippine Arc plot in distinct fields. Thus, the La-Th-Sc discrimination diagram, coupledwith Nd isotopes, can be used to trace the provenance of SCS sediments. Using this method, we re-assessed the provenance changes of sediments at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1148 since the late Oligocene. The results indicate that sediments deposited after 23.8 Ma (above 455 mcd: meters composite depth) were supplied mainly from the eastern South China Block, with a negligible contribution from the interior of the South China Block. Sediments deposited before 26 Ma (beneath 477 mcd) were supplied mainly from the North Palawan Continental Terrane, which may retain the geochemical characteristics of the materials covered on the late Mesozoic granitoids along the coastal South China. For that the North Palawan Continental Terrane is presently located within the southern Philippine Arc but was located close to ODP Site 1148 in the late Oligocene. The weathering products of volcanic material associated with the extension of the SCS ocean crust also contributed to these sediments. The rapid change in sediment source at 26-23.8 Ma probably resulted from a sudden cessation of sediment supply from the North Palawan Continental Terrane. Wesuggest that the North Palawan Continental Terrane drifted southwards alongwith the extension of the SCS ocean crust during that time, and when the basin was large enough, the supply of sediment from the south to ODP Site 1148 at the north slope may have ceased.

Time-series of seagrass and land cover maps from 1972 to 2010, in South East Queensland, Australia, with links to GeoTIFFs

Long term global archives of high-moderate spatial resolution, multi-spectral satellite imagery are now readily accessible, but are not being fully utilised by management agencies due to the lack of appropriate methods to consistently produce accurate and timely management ready information. This work developed an object-based remote sensing approach to map land cover and seagrass distribution in an Australian coastal environment for a 38 year Landsat image time-series archive (1972-2010). Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) imagery were used without in situ field data input (but still using field knowledge) to produce land and seagrass cover maps every year data were available, resulting in over 60 map products over the 38 year archive. Land cover was mapped annually using vegetation, bare ground, urban and agricultural classes. Seagrass distribution was also mapped annually, and in some years monthly, via horizontal projected foliage cover classes, sand and deep water. Land cover products were validated using aerial photography and seagrass maps were validated with field survey data, producing several measures of accuracy. An average overall accuracy of 65% and 80% was reported for seagrass and land cover products respectively, which is consistent with other studies in the area. This study is the first to show moderate spatial resolution, long term annual changes in land cover and seagrass in an Australian environment, created without the use of in situ data; and only one of a few similar studies globally. The land cover products identify several long term trends; such as significant increases in South East Queensland's urban density and extent, vegetation clearing in rural and rural-residential areas, and inter-annual variation in dry vegetation types in western South East Queensland. The seagrass cover products show that there has been a minimal overall change in seagrass extent, but that seagrass cover level distribution is extremely dynamic; evidenced by large scale migrations of higher seagrass cover levels and several sudden and significant changes in cover level. These mapping products will allow management agencies to build a baseline assessment of their resources, understand past changes and help inform implementation and planning of management policy to address potential future changes.

Age determination and radiometric dates of cores from Okarito Pakihi in Australia

In agreement with the Milankovitch orbital forcing hypothesis (Imbrie et al., 1993) it is often assumed that glacial-interglacial climate transitions occurred synchronously in the Northern and Southern hemispheres of the Earth. It is difficult to test this assumption, because of the paucity of long, continuous climate records from the Southern Hemisphere that have not been dated by tuning them to the presumed Northern Hemisphere signals (Lynch-Stieglitz, 2004). Here we present an independently dated terrestrial pollen record from a peat bog on South Island, New Zealand, to investigate global and local factors in Southern Hemisphere climate changes during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Our record largely corroborates the Milankovitch model of orbital forcing but also exhibits some differences: in particular, an earlier onset and longer duration of the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results suggest that Southern Hemisphere insolation may have been responsible for these differences in timing. Our findings question the validity of applying orbital tuning to Southern Hemisphere records and suggest an alternative mechanism to the bipolar seesaw for generating interhemispheric asynchrony in climate change.

Late Oligocene rapid transformations in the South China Sea

Lithobiostratigraphic data indicate that the double reflectors on the seismic profile through Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1148 represent two unconformities that coincide, respectively, with the lower/upper Oligocene boundary at ~488 mcd, and Oligocene-Miocene boundary at 460 mcd. Two other unconformities, at ~478 and 472 mcd, respectively, were also identified within the upper Oligocene section. Together they erased a sediment record of about 3 Ma from this locality in a period of very active seafloor spreading. The existence of 32.8 Ma marine sediment at the terminated depth (850 mcd) indicates that the initial breakup of the South China Sea (SCS) was probably during 34-33 Ma, close to the Eocene-Oligocene boundary. High sedimentation rates of 60-115 m/my from the much expanded, N350 m lower Oligocene section resulted from rifting and rapid subsidence between 33 and 29 Ma. The mid-Oligocene unconformity at ~28.5 Ma, which also occurred in many parts of the Indo-West Pacific region, was probably related to a significant uplift of the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau to the west and the initial collision between Indonesia and Australia in the south. A narrowed Indonesian seaway may have accounted for the late Oligocene warming and chalk deposition in the northern South China Sea including the Site 1148 locality. The unconformities and slumps near the Oligocene-Miocene boundary indicate a very unstable tectonic regime, probably corresponding to changes in the rotation of different land blocks and the seafloor spreading ridge from nearly E-W to NE-SW, as recognized earlier at magnetic Anomaly 7. This 25 Ma event also saw the first New Guinea terrane docking at the northern Australian craton. The low sedimentation rate of ~15 m/my in the early to middle Miocene may correspond to another period of rapid seafloor spreading and rapid widespread subsidence that effectively caused sediment source areas to retreat with a rapidly rising sea level. The isostatic nature of these late Oligocene unconformities and slumps with several major collision-uplift events indicate that the rapid changes in the early evolutionary history of the South China Sea were mainly responding to regional tectonic reconfiguration including the uplift-driven southeast extrusion of the Indochina subcontinent.