7 resultados para Asymptotic behaviour, Bayesian methods, Mixture models, Overfitting, Posterior concentration
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
Marine brachyuran and anomuran crustaceans are completely absent from the extremely cold (-1.8 °C) Antarctic continental shelf, but caridean shrimps are abundant. This has at least partly been attributed to low capacities for magnesium excretion in brachyuran and anomuran lithodid crabs ([Mg2+]HL = 20-50 mmol/L) compared to caridean shrimp species ([Mg2+]HL = 5-12 mmol/L). Magnesium has an anaesthetizing effect and reduces cold tolerance and activity of adult brachyuran crabs. We investigated whether the capacity for magnesium regulation is a factor that influences temperature-dependent activity of early ontogenetic stages of the Sub-Antarctic lithodid crab Paralomis granulosa. Ion composition (Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl-, [SO4]2-) was measured in haemolymph withdrawn from larval stages, the first and second juvenile instars (crabs I and II) and adult males and females. Magnesium excretion improved during ontogeny, but haemolymph sulphate concentration was lowest in the zoeal stages. Neither haemolymph magnesium concentrations nor Ca2+:Mg2+ ratios paralleled activity levels of the life stages. Long-term (3 week) cold exposure of crab I to 1 °C caused a significant rise of haemolymph sulphate concentration and a decrease in magnesium and calcium concentrations compared to control temperature (9 °C). Spontaneous swimming activity of the zoeal stages was determined at 1, 4 and 9 °C in natural sea water (NSW, [Mg2+] = 51 mmol/L) and in sea water enriched with magnesium (NSW + Mg2+, [Mg2+] = 97 mmol/L). It declined significantly with temperature but only insignificantly with increased magnesium concentration. Spontaneous velocities were low, reflecting the demersal life style of the zoeae. Heart rate, scaphognathite beat rate and forced swimming activity (maxilliped beat rate, zoea I) or antennule beat rate (crab I) were investigated in response to acute temperature change (9, 6, 3, 1, -1 °C) in NSW or NSW + Mg2+. High magnesium concentration reduced heart rates in both stages. The temperature-frequency curve of the maxilliped beat (maximum: 9.6 beats/s at 6.6 °C in NSW) of zoea I was depressed and shifted towards warmer temperatures by 2 °C in NSW + Mg2+, but antennule beat rate of crab I was not affected. Magnesium may therefore influence cold tolerance of highly active larvae, but it remains questionable whether the slow-moving lithodid crabs with demersal larvae would benefit from an enhanced magnesium excretion in nature.
Resumo:
Changing patterns of sea-ice distribution and extent have measurable effects on polar marine systems. Beyond the obvious impacts of key-habitat loss, it is unclear how such changes will influence ice-associated marine mammals in part because of the logistical difficulties of studying foraging behaviour or other aspects of the ecology of large, mobile animals at sea during the polar winter. This study investigated the diet of pregnant bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) during three spring breeding periods (2005, 2006 and 2007) with markedly contrasting ice conditions in Svalbard using stable isotopes (d13C and d15N) measured in whiskers collected from their newborn pups. The d15N values in the whiskers of individual seals ranged from 11.95 to 17.45 per mil, spanning almost 2 full trophic levels. Some seals were clearly dietary specialists, despite the species being characterised overall as a generalist predator. This may buffer bearded seal populations from the changes in prey distributions lower in the marine food web which seems to accompany continued changes in temperature and ice cover. Comparisons with isotopic signatures of known prey, suggested that benthic gastropods and decapods were the most common prey. Bayesian isotopic mixing models indicated that diet varied considerably among years. In the year with most fast-ice (2005), the seals had the greatest proportion of pelagic fish and lowest benthic invertebrate content, and during the year with the least ice (2006), the seals ate more benthic invertebrates and less pelagic fish. This suggests that the seals fed further offshore in years with greater ice cover, but moved in to the fjords when ice-cover was minimal, giving them access to different types of prey. Long-term trends of sea ice decline, earlier ice melt, and increased water temperatures in the Arctic are likely to have ecosystem-wide effects, including impacts on the forage bases of pagophilic seals.
Resumo:
This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.
Resumo:
Extremely low summer sea-ice coverage in the Arctic Ocean in 2007 allowed extensive sampling and a wide quasi-synoptic hydrographic and d18O dataset could be collected in the Eurasian Basin and the Makarov Basin up to the Alpha Ridge and the East Siberian continental margin. With the aim of determining the origin of freshwater in the halocline, fractions of river water and sea-ice meltwater in the upper 150 m were quantified by a combination of salinity and d18O in the Eurasian Basin. Two methods, applying the preformed phosphate concentration (PO*) and the nitrate-to-phosphate ratio (N/P), were compared to further differentiate the marine fraction into Atlantic and Pacific-derived contributions. While PO*-based assessments systematically underestimate the contribution of Pacific-derived waters, N/P-based calculations overestimate Pacific-derived waters within the Transpolar Drift due to denitrification in bottom sediments at the Laptev Sea continental margin. Within the Eurasian Basin a west to east oriented front between net melting and production of sea-ice is observed. Outside the Atlantic regime dominated by net sea-ice melting, a pronounced layer influenced by brines released during sea-ice formation is present at about 30 to 50 m water depth with a maximum over the Lomonosov Ridge. The geographically distinct definition of this maximum demonstrates the rapid release and transport of signals from the shelf regions in discrete pulses within the Transpolar Drift. The ratio of sea-ice derived brine influence and river water is roughly constant within each layer of the Arctic Ocean halocline. The correlation between brine influence and river water reveals two clusters that can be assigned to the two main mechanisms of sea-ice formation within the Arctic Ocean. Over the open ocean or in polynyas at the continental slope where relatively small amounts of river water are found, sea-ice formation results in a linear correlation between brine influence and river water at salinities of about 32 to 34. In coastal polynyas in the shallow regions of the Laptev Sea and southern Kara Sea, sea-ice formation transports river water into the shelf's bottom layer due to the close proximity to the river mouths. This process therefore results in waters that form a second linear correlation between brine influence and river water at salinities of about 30 to 32. Our study indicates which layers of the Arctic Ocean halocline are primarily influenced by sea-ice formation in coastal polynyas and which layers are primarily influenced by sea-ice formation over the open ocean. Accordingly we use the ratio of sea-ice derived brine influence and river water to link the maximum in brine influence within the Transpolar Drift with a pulse of shelf waters from the Laptev Sea that was likely released in summer 2005.