Sampling information, length measurements, DNA alignments, models and phylogenetics trees for Oithona similis s.l.

Traditionally, many small-sized copepod species are considered to be widespread, bipolar or cosmopolitan. However, these large-scale distribution patterns need to be re-examined in view of increasing evidence of cryptic and pseudo-cryptic speciation in pelagic copepods. Here, we present a phylogeographic study of Oithona similis s.l. populations from the Arctic Ocean, the Southern Ocean and its northern boundaries, the North Atlantic and the Mediterrranean Sea. O. similis s.l. is considered as one of the most abundant species in temperate to polar oceans and acts as an important link in the trophic network between the microbial loop and higher trophic levels such as fish larvae. Two gene fragments were analysed: the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase c subunit I (COI), and the nuclear ribosomal 28S genetic marker. Seven distinct, geographically delimitated, mitochondrial lineages could be identified, with divergences among the lineages ranging from 8 to 24 %, thus representing most likely cryptic or pseudocryptic species within O. similis s.l. Four lineages were identified within or close to the borders of the Southern Ocean, one lineage in the Arctic Ocean and two lineages in the temperate Northern hemisphere. Surprisingly the Arctic lineage was more closely related to lineages from the Southern hemisphere than to the other lineages from the Northern hemisphere, suggesting that geographic proximity is a rather poor predictor of how closely related the clades are on a genetic level. Molecular clock application revealed that the evolutionary history of O. similis s.l. is possibly closely associated with the reorganization of the ocean circulation in the mid Miocene and may be an example of allopatric speciation in the pelagic zone.

Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

(Appendix) Petrographic information, trace element and Sr isotope ratios of Pito Deep samples

Fluid flow through the axial hydrothermal system at fast spreading ridges is investigated using the Sr-isotopic composition of upper crustal samples recovered from a tectonic window at Pito Deep (NE Easter microplate). Samples from the sheeted dike complex collected away from macroscopic evidence of channelized fluid flow, such as faults and centimeter-scale hydrothermal veins, show a range of 87Sr/86Sr from 0.7025 to 0.7030 averaging 0.70276 relative to a protolith with 87Sr/86Sr of ~0.7024. There is no systematic variation in 87Sr/86Sr with depth in the sheeted dike complex. Comparison of these new data with the two other localities that similar data sets exist for (ODP Hole 504B and the Hess Deep tectonic window) reveals that the extent of Sr-isotope exchange is similar in all of these locations. Models that assume that fluid-rock reaction occurs during one-dimensional (recharge) flow lead to significant decreases in the predicted extent of isotopic modification of the rock with depth in the crust. These model results show systematic misfits when compared with the data that can only be avoided if the fluid flow is assumed to be focused in isolated channels with very slow fluid-rock exchange. In this scenario the fluid at the base of the crust is little modified in 87Sr/86Sr from seawater and thus unlike vent fluids. Additionally, this model predicts that some rocks should show no change from the fresh-rock 87Sr/86Sr, but this is not observed. Alternatively, models in which fluid-rock reaction occurs during upflow (discharge) as well as downflow, or in which fluids are recirculated within the hydrothermal system, can reproduce the observed lack of variation in 87Sr/86Sr with depth in the crust. Minimum time-integrated fluid fluxes, calculated from mass balance, are between 1.5 and 2.6 * 10**6 kg/m**2 for all areas studied to date. However, new evidence from both the rocks and a compilation of vent fluid compositions demonstrates that some Sr is leached from the crust. Because this leaching lowers the fluid 87Sr/86Sr without changing the rock 87Sr/86Sr, these mass balance models must underestimate the time-integrated fluid flux. Additionally, these values do not account for fluid flow that is channelized within the crust.

Gridded climate data from 5 Global Climate Models (GCM) of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) downscaled to 30 arc seconds for Europe, with links to NetCDF files

Studies on the impact of historical, current and future global change require very high-resolution climate data (less or equal 1km) as a basis for modelled responses, meaning that data from digital climate models generally require substantial rescaling. Another shortcoming of available datasets on past climate is that the effects of sea level rise and fall are not considered. Without such information, the study of glacial refugia or early Holocene plant and animal migration are incomplete if not impossible. Sea level at the last glacial maximum (LGM) was approximately 125m lower, creating substantial additional terrestrial area for which no current baseline data exist. Here, we introduce the development of a novel, gridded climate dataset for LGM that is both very high resolution (1km) and extends to the LGM sea and land mask. We developed two methods to extend current terrestrial precipitation and temperature data to areas between the current and LGM coastlines. The absolute interpolation error is less than 1°C and 0.5 °C for 98.9% and 87.8% of all pixels for the first two 1 arc degree distance zones. We use the change factor method with these newly assembled baseline data to downscale five global circulation models of LGM climate to a resolution of 1km for Europe. As additional variables we calculate 19 'bioclimatic' variables, which are often used in climate change impact studies on biological diversity. The new LGM climate maps are well suited for analysing refugia and migration during Holocene warming following the LGM.

Age models and summer sea surface temperature and winter sea ice concentration for the EPILOG-LGM time slice in the Pacific Southern Ocean

Sea surface temperatures and sea-ice extent are the most critical variables to evaluate the Southern Ocean paleoceanographic evolution in relation to the development of the global carbon cycle, atmospheric CO2 variability and ocean-atmosphere circulation. In contrast to the Atlantic and the Indian sectors, the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean has been insufficiently investigated so far. To cover this gap of information we present diatom-based estimates of summer sea surface temperature (SSST) and winter sea-ice concentration (WSI) from 17 sites in the polar South Pacific to study the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at the EPILOG time slice (19,000-23,000 cal. years BP). Applied statistical methods are the Imbrie and Kipp Method (IKM) and the Modern Analog Technique (MAT) to estimate temperature and sea-ice concentration, respectively. Our data display a distinct LGM east-west differentiation in SSST and WSI with steeper latitudinal temperature gradients and a winter sea-ice edge located consistently north of the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge in the Ross sea sector. In the eastern sector of our study area, which is governed by the Amundsen Abyssal Plain, the estimates yield weaker latitudinal SSST gradients together with a variable extended winter sea-ice field. In this sector, sea-ice extent may have reached sporadically the area of the present Subantarctic Front at its maximum LGM expansion. This pattern points to topographic forcing as major controller of the frontal system location and sea-ice extent in the western Pacific sector whereas atmospheric conditions like the Southern Annular Mode and the ENSO affected the oceanographic conditions in the eastern Pacific sector. Although it is difficult to depict the location and the physical nature of frontal systems separating the glacial Southern Ocean water masses into different zones, we found a distinct temperature gradient in latitudes straddled by the modern Southern Subtropical Front. Considering that the glacial temperatures north of this zone are similar to the modern, we suggest that this represents the Glacial Southern Subtropical Front (GSSTF), which delimits the zone of strongest glacial SSST cooling (>4K) to its North. The southern boundary of the zone of maximum cooling is close to the glacial 4°C isotherm. This isotherm, which is in the range of SSST at the modern Antarctic Polar Front (APF), represents a circum-Antarctic feature and marks the northern edge of the glacial Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). We also assume that a glacial front was established at the northern average winter sea ice edge, comparable with the modern Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF). During the glacial, this front would be located in the area of the modern APF. The northward deflection of colder than modern surface waters along the South American continent leads to a significant cooling of the glacial Humboldt Current surface waters (4-8K), which affects the temperature regimes as far north as into tropical latitudes. The glacial reduction of ACC temperatures may also result in the significant cooling in the Atlantic and Indian Southern Ocean, thus may enhance thermal differentiation of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic continental cooling. Comparison with temperature and sea ice simulations for the last glacial based on numerical simulations show that the majority of modern models overestimate summer and winter sea ice cover and that there exists few models that reproduce our temperature data rather well.

Surface velocity fields, digital elevation models and ice front positions derived from multi-mission SAR remote sensing data at Sjögren Inlet glaciers, Antarctic Peninsula

Substantial retreat or disintegration of numerous ice shelves have been observed on the Antarctic Peninsula. The ice shelf in the Prince Gustav Channel retreated gradually since the late 1980's and broke-up in 1995. Tributary glaciers reacted with speed-up, surface lowering and increased ice discharge, consequently contributing to sea level rise. We present a detailed long-term study (1993-2014) on the dynamic response of Sjögren Inlet glaciers to the disintegration of Prince Gustav Ice Shelf. We analyzed various remote sensing datasets to observe the reactions of the glaciers to the loss of the buttressing ice shelf. A strong increase in ice surface velocities was observed with maximum flow speeds reaching 2.82±0.48 m/d in 2007 and 1.50±0.32 m/d in 2004 at Sjögren and Boydell glaciers respectively. Subsequently, the flow velocities decelerated, however in late 2014, we still measured about two times the values of our first measurements in 1996. The tributary glaciers retreated 61.7±3.1 km² behind the former grounding line of the ice shelf. In regions below 1000 m a.s.l., a mean surface lowering of -68±10 m (-3.1 m/a) was observed in the period 1993-2014. The lowering rate decreased to -2.2 m/a in recent years. Based on the surface lowering rates, geodetic mass balances of the glaciers were derived for different time steps. High mass loss rate of -1.21±0.36 Gt/a was found in the earliest period (1993-2001). Due to the dynamic adjustments of the glaciers to the new boundary conditions the ice mass loss reduced to -0.59±0.11 Gt/a in the period 2012-2014, resulting in an average mass loss rate of -0.89±0.16 Gt/a (1993-2014). Including the retreat of the ice front and grounding line, a total mass change of -38.5±7.7 Gt and a contribution to sea level rise of 0.061±0.013 mm were computed. Analysis of the ice flux revealed that available bedrock elevation estimates at Sjögren Inlet are too shallow and are the major uncertainty in ice flux computations. This temporally dense time series analysis of Sjögren Inlet glaciers shows that the adjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration are still going on and provides detailed information of the changes in glacier dynamics.