29 resultados para Approximate Bayesian computation, Posterior distribution, Quantile distribution, Response time data
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations) - despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region-to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as32% of species shifting upward or downward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction of distribution limit shifts was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species shifted upward at their upper elevational limit when snowfall declined at slower rates and minimum temperatures increased. By contrast, species shifted upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased or both temperature and precipitation decreased. Our results suggest that future species' elevational distribution shifts will be complex, depending on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.
Resumo:
The euphotic depth (Zeu) is a key parameter in modelling primary production (PP) using satellite ocean colour. However, evaluations of satellite Zeu products are scarce. The objective of this paper is to investigate existing approaches and sensors to estimate Zeu from satellite and to evaluate how different Zeu products might affect the estimation of PP in the Southern Ocean (SO). Euphotic depth was derived from MODIS and SeaWiFS products of (i) surface chlorophyll-a (Zeu-Chla) and (ii) inherent optical properties (Zeu-IOP). They were compared with in situ measurements of Zeu from different regions of the SO. Both approaches and sensors are robust to retrieve Zeu, although the best results were obtained using the IOP approach and SeaWiFS data, with an average percentage of error (E) of 25.43% and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.10 m (log scale). Nevertheless, differences in the spatial distribution of Zeu-Chla and Zeu-IOP for both sensors were found as large as 30% over specific regions. These differences were also observed in PP. On average, PP based on Zeu-Chla was 8% higher than PP based on Zeu-IOP, but it was up to 30% higher south of 60°S. Satellite phytoplankton absorption coefficients (aph) derived by the Quasi-Analytical Algorithm at different wavelengths were also validated and the results showed that MODIS aph are generally more robust than SeaWiFS. Thus, MODIS aph should be preferred in PP models based on aph in the SO. Further, we reinforce the importance of investigating the spatial differences between satellite products, which might not be detected by the validation with in situ measurements due to the insufficient amount and uneven distribution of the data.
Resumo:
A number of neogenic opaline structures, not previously reported in the literature, as well as other neogenic phases are described from four Oligocene to Pliocene biosiliceous sediment samples from Hole 699A. The possible influence of microbes on the formation or the morphology of some of them is discussed. The samples, which are early Pliocene, early to middle Miocene, and late Oligocene (two) in age, were histologically fixed aboard ship upon retrieval. Investigations of the samples used SEM (with Edax/Tracor) and XRD methods. Diagenesis has affected all four samples, but the most extensive development of neoformed structures occurs in the Miocene and uppermost Oligocene samples, where microbial filaments (0.05 to 10 ?m long), microbial colonies, and siliceous microhemispheroids (0.2 to 0.7 µm diameter) were observed. The latter encrust filaments, diatoms, and detrital grains to varying degrees. Other neoformed structures include (1) flakes formed by coalesced microhemispheroids, some of which are guided by short, stubby filaments, which occur only in the Miocene and uppermost Oligocene samples, and (2) flakes characterized by smooth or microfissured surfaces, which grow on diatom frustules and in pore spaces and have a more widespread distribution. The XRD data indicate possible cristobalite formation in the Miocene and uppermost Oligocene samples; we believe that the neoformed opaline structures (encrusted filaments and microhemispheroids) may represent an early phase of opal-CT. The timing of neoformation of most of these features appears to have been fairly recent, continuing even at the time of sampling. There appears to be no direct correlation of this incipient, lower Miocene-uppermost Oligocene diagenetic layer and the pore-water chemistry profiles; a massive increase in shear strength in these sediments, however, may indicate some cementation. Smectite was identified by XRD as the most prominent clay mineral in these generally clay-poor sediments. Honeycombed minerals with filamentous edges, which could correspond to smectite, were observed with SEM in the pore spaces.
Resumo:
This paper is a comparative study of the variation in 10Be content of different late Cenozoic sedimentary environments recovered during ODP Leg 117. The Oman Margin site, Hole 728A, with overlying high-productivity cells, the pelagic Owen Ridge site, Hole 722A, and the Indus Fan site, Hole 720A, each display a specific 10Be distribution with time. Differences in scavenging intensity and upwelling in the water column, must account for the variations in the initial 10Be input into the sediments from Holes 728A and 722A, whereas differences in sediment character and sedimentation rate can explain the variances between Holes 722A, 728A, and 720A.
Resumo:
Ocean acidification (OA) and its associated decline in calcium carbonate saturation states is one of the major threats that tropical coral reefs face this century. Previous studies of the effect of OA on coral reef calcifiers have described a wide variety of outcomes for studies using comparable partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) ranges, suggesting that key questions remain unresolved. One unresolved hypothesis posits that heterogeneity in the response of reef calcifiers to high pCO2 is a result of regional-scale variation in the responses to OA. To test this hypothesis, we incubated two coral taxa (Pocillopora damicornis and massive Porites) and two calcified algae (Porolithon onkodes and Halimeda macroloba) under 400, 700 and 1000 µatm pCO2 levels in experiments in Moorea (French Polynesia), Hawaii (USA) and Okinawa (Japan), where environmental conditions differ. Both corals and H. macroloba were insensitive to OA at all three locations, while the effects of OA on P. onkodes were location-specific. In Moorea and Hawaii, calcification of P. onkodes was depressed by high pCO2, but for specimens in Okinawa, there was no effect of OA. Using a study of large geographical scale, we show that resistance to OA of some reef species is a constitutive character expressed across the Pacific.
Resumo:
The objective of this study was to investigate whether a tipping point exists in the calcification responses of coral reef calcifiers to CO2. We compared the effects of six partial pressures of CO2 (PCO2) from 28 Pa to 210 Pa on the net calcification of four corals (Acropora pulchra, Porites rus, Pocillopora damicornis, and Pavona cactus), and four calcified algae (Hydrolithon onkodes, Lithophyllum flavescens, Halimeda macroloba, and Halimeda minima). After 2 weeks of acclimation in a common environment, organisms were incubated in 12 aquaria for 2 weeks at the targeted PCO2 levels and net calcification was quantified. All eight species calcified at the highest PCO2 in which the calcium carbonate aragonite saturation state was ~1. Calcification decreased linearly as a function of increasing partial PCO2 in three corals and three algae. Overall, the decrease in net calcification as a function of decreasing pH was ~10% when ambient PCO2 (39 Pa) was doubled. The calcification responses of P. damicornis and H. macroloba were unaffected by increasing PCO2. These results are inconsistent with the notion that coral reefs will be affected by rising PCO2 in a response characterized by a tipping point. Instead, our findings combined among taxa suggest a gradual decline in calcification will occur, but this general response includes specific cases of complete resistance to rising PCO2. Together our results suggest that the overall response of coral reef communities to ocean acidification will be monotonic and inversely proportional to PCO2, with reef-wide responses dependent on the species composition of calcifying taxa.
Seawater carbonate chemistry and Astrangia poculata mass and zooxanthellate during experiments, 2012
Resumo:
The effects of nutrients and pCO2 on zooxanthellate and azooxanthellate colonies of the temperate scleractinian coral Astrangia poculata (Ellis and Solander, 1786) were investigated at two different temperatures (16 °C and 24 °C). Corals exposed to elevated pCO2 tended to have lower relative calcification rates, as estimated from changes in buoyant weights. Experimental nutrient enrichments had no significant effect nor did there appear to be any interaction between pCO2 and nutrients. Elevated pCO2 appeared to have a similar effect on coral calcification whether zooxanthellae were present or absent at 16 °C. However, at 24 °C, the interpretation of the results is complicated by a significant interaction between gender and pCO2 for spawning corals. At 16 °C, gamete release was not observed, and no gender differences in calcification rates were observed - female and male corals showed similar reductions in calcification rates in response to elevated CO2 (15% and 19% respectively). Corals grown at 24 °C spawned repeatedly and male and female corals exhibited two different growth rate patterns - female corals grown at 24 °C and exposed to CO2 had calcification rates 39% lower than females grown at ambient CO2, while males showed a non-significant decline of 5% under elevated CO2. The increased sensitivity of females to elevated pCO2 may reflect a greater investment of energy in reproduction (egg production) relative to males (sperm production). These results suggest that both gender and spawning are important factors in determining the sensitivity of corals to ocean acidification, and considering these factors in future research may be critical to predicting how the population structures of marine calcifiers will change in response to ocean acidification.
Resumo:
The existing database for paleointensity estimates of the ancient geomagnetic field contains more than 1500 data points collected through decades of effort. Despite the huge amount of work put into obtaining these data, there remains a strong bias in the age and global distribution of the data toward very young results from a few locations. Also, few of the data meet strict criteria for reliability and most are of unknown quality. In order to improve the age and spatial distribution of the paleointensity database, we have carried out paleointensity experiments on submarine basaltic glasses from a number of DSDP sites. Of particular interest are the sites that provide paleointensity data spanning the time period 0.3-5 Ma, a time of relatively few high quality published data points. Our new data are concordant with contemporaneous data from the published literature that meet minimum acceptance criteria, and the combined data set yields an average dipole moment of 5.49 +/- 2.36*10**22 Am**2. This average value is comparable to the average paleofield for the period 5-160 Ma (4.2 +/- 2.3*10**22 Am**2) (Juarez et al., 1998, doi:10.1038/29746) and is substantially less than the value of approximately 8*10**22 Am**2 often quoted for the last 5 Myr (e.g. McFadden and McElhinny (1982) J. Geomagn. Geoelectr. 34, 163-189; Goguitchaichvili et al., 1999, doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(99)00010-2).
Resumo:
Changes in olfactory-mediated behaviour caused by elevated CO2 levels in the ocean could affect recruitment to reef fish populations because larval fish become more vulnerable to predation. However, it is currently unclear how elevated CO2 will impact the other key part of the predator-prey interaction - the predators. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2 and reduced pH on olfactory preferences, activity levels and feeding behaviour of a common coral reef meso-predator, the brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus). Predators were exposed to either current-day CO2 levels or one of two elevated CO2 levels (~600 µatm or ~950 µatm) that may occur by 2100 according to climate change predictions. Exposure to elevated CO2 and reduced pH caused a shift from preference to avoidance of the smell of injured prey, with CO2treated predators spending approximately 20% less time in a water stream containing prey odour compared with controls. Furthermore, activity levels of fish was higher in the high CO2 treatment and feeding activity was lower for fish in the mid CO2treatment; indicating that future conditions may potentially reduce the ability of the fish to respond rapidly to fluctuations in food availability. Elevated activity levels of predators in the high CO2 treatment, however, may compensate for reduced olfactory ability, as greater movement facilitated visual detection of food. Our findings show that, at least for the species tested to date, both parties in the predator-prey relationship may be affected by ocean acidification. Although impairment of olfactory-mediated behaviour of predators might reduce the risk of predation for larval fishes, the magnitude of the observed effects of elevated CO2 acidification appear to be more dramatic for prey compared to predators. Thus, it is unlikely that the altered behaviour of predators is sufficient to fully compensate for the effects of ocean acidification on prey mortality.
Resumo:
Acidification of seawater owing to oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 originating from human activities such as burning of fossil fuels and land-use changes has raised serious concerns regarding its adverse effects on corals and calcifying communities. Here we demonstrate a net loss of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) material as a result of decreased calcification and increased carbonate dissolution from replicated subtropical coral reef communities (n=3) incubated in continuous-flow mesocosms subject to future seawater conditions. The calcifying community was dominated by the coral Montipora capitata. Daily average community calcification or Net Ecosystem Calcification (NEC=CaCO3 production - dissolution) was positive at 3.3 mmol CaCO3 m-2 h-1 under ambient seawater pCO2 conditions as opposed to negative at -0.04 mmol CaCO3 m-2 h-1 under seawater conditions of double the ambient pCO2. These experimental results provide support for the conclusion that some net calcifying communities could become subject to net dissolution in response to anthropogenic ocean acidification within this century. Nevertheless, individual corals remained healthy, actively calcified (albeit slower than at present rates), and deposited significant amounts of CaCO3 under the prevailing experimental seawater conditions of elevated pCO2.
Resumo:
Benthic foraminifer and delta13C data from Site 849, on the west flank of the East Pacific Rise (0°11 'N, 110°31'W; 3851 m), give relatively continuous records of deep Pacific Ocean stable isotope variations between 0 and 5 Ma. The mean sample spacing is 4 k.y. Most analyses are from Cibicides wuellerstorfi, but isotopic offsets relative to Uvigerina peregrina appear roughly constant. Because of its location west of the East Pacific Rise, Site 849 yields a suitable record of mean Pacific Ocean delta13C, which approximates a global oceanic signal. The ~100-k.y.-period climate cycle, which is prevalent in delta18O does not dominate the long-term delta13C record. For delta13C, variations in the ~400- and 41-k.y. periods are more important. Phase lags of delta13C relative to ice volume in the 41- and 23-k.y. bands are consistent with delta13C as a measure of organic biomass. A model-calculated exponential response time of 1-2 k.y. is appropriate for carbon stored in soils and shallow sediments responding to glacial-interglacial climate change. Oceanic delta13C leads ice volume slightly in the 100-k.y. band, and this suggests another process such as changes in continental weathering to modulate mean river delta13C at long periods. The delta13C record from Site 849 diverges from that of Site 677 in the Panama Basin mostly because of decay of 13C-depleted organic carbon in the relatively isolated Panama Basin. North Atlantic to Pacific delta13C differences calculated using published data from Sites 607 and 849 reveal variations in Pliocene deep water within the range of those of the late Quaternary. Maximum delta13C contrast between these sites, which presumably reflects maximum influx of high-delta13C northern source water into the deep North Atlantic Ocean, occurred between 1.3 and 2.1 Ma, well after the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Export of high-delta13C North Atlantic Deep Water from the Atlantic to the circumpolar Antarctic, as recorded by published delta13C data from Subantarctic Site 704, appears unrelated to the North Atlantic-Pacific delta13C contrast. To account for this observation, we suggest that deep-water formation in the North Atlantic reflects northern source characteristics, whereas export of this water into the circumpolar Antarctic reflects Southern Hemisphere wind forcing. Neither process appears directly linked to ice-volume variations.
Resumo:
Active fluorescence (fast repetition rate fluorometry, FRRF) was used to follow the photosynthetic response of the phytoplankton community during the 13-day Southern Ocean Iron RElease Experiment (SOIREE). This in situ iron enrichment was conducted in the polar waters of the Australasian-Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean in February 1999. Iron fertilisation of these high nitrate low chlorophyll (HNLC) waters resulted in an increase in the photosynthetic competence (Fv/Fm) of the resident cells from around 0.20 to greater than 0.60 (i.e. close to the theoretical maximum) by 10/11 days after the first enrichment. Although a significant iron-mediated response in Fv/Fm was detected as early as 24 h after the initial fertilisation, the increase in Fv/Fm to double ambient levels took 6 days. This response was five-fold slower than observed in iron enrichments (in situ and in vitro) in the HNLC waters of the subarctic and equatorial Pacific. Although little is known about the relationship between water temperature and Fv/Fm, it is likely that low water temperatures - and possibly the deep mixed layer - were responsible for this slow response time. During SOIREE, the photosynthetic competence of the resident phytoplankton in iron-enriched waters increased at dissolved iron levels above 0.2 nM, suggesting that iron limitation was alleviated at this concentration. Increases in Fv/Fm of cells within four algal size classes suggested that all taxa displayed a photosynthetic response to iron enrichment. Other physiological proxies of algal iron stress (such as flavodoxin levels in diatoms) exhibited different temporal trends to iron-enrichment than Fv/Fm during the time-course of SOIREE. The relationship between Fv/Fm, algal growth rate and such proxies in Southern Ocean waters is discussed.
Resumo:
Lichens are symbioses between fungi (mycobionts) and photoautotrophic green algae or cyanobacteria (photobionts). Many lichens occupy large distributional ranges covering several climatic zones. So far, little is known about the large-scale phylogeography of lichen photobionts and their role in shaping the distributional ranges of lichens. We studied south polar, temperate and north polar populations of the widely distributed fruticose lichen Cetraria aculeata. Based on the DNA sequences from three loci for each symbiont, we compared the genetic structure of mycobionts and photobionts. Phylogenetic reconstructions and Bayesian clustering methods divided the mycobiont and photobiont data sets into three groups. An AMOVA shows that the genetic variance of the photobiont is best explained by differentiation between temperate and polar regions and that of the mycobiont by an interaction of climatic and geographical factors. By partialling out the relative contribution of climate, geography and codispersal, we found that the most relevant factors shaping the genetic structure of the photobiont are climate and a history of codispersal. Mycobionts in the temperate region are consistently associated with a specific photobiont lineage. We therefore conclude that a photobiont switch in the past enabled C. aculeata to colonize temperate as well as polar habitats. Rare photobiont switches may increase the geographical range and ecological niche of lichen mycobionts by associating them with locally adapted photobionts in climatically different regions and, together with isolation by distance, may lead to genetic isolation between populations and thus drive the evolution of lichens.
Resumo:
Uranium series nuclide concentrations have been measured on sediments from five box cores from an equatorial Pacific transect. 230Thexcess activities show discontinuities at the Holocene-glacial boundary as dated by 14C. The glacial sedimentation rates determined by 230Th and 14C are 2.5-3.0 cm/kyr. The Holocene rates from 230Th are much lower than those dated by 14C (1.9-2.3 cm/kyr) because of carbonate dissolution. 230Th sedimentation fluxes exceed water column supply by factors of 1.2-1.8 in the Holocene and 1.8-3.0 in the glacial sections. A number of models have been applied to calculate carbonate dissolution rates. The results show that carbonate dissolution rates in the Holocene (in g/cm**2 kyr) equal 1.5 * 10**-3 exp (1.4D) where D is water depth in kilometers. A point-by- point estimation of sediment fluxes through time show that clay accumulation rates in the area have been near constant at 0.1-0.2 g/cm**2 kyr over the past 20 kyr whereas carbonate accumulation rates have decreased dramatically from 0.6-1.0 g/cm**2 kyr in the glacial sections of the cores to 0.2-0.6 g/cm**2 kyr in the Holocene. The errors caused by the uncertainties in the age of the termination of the last glacial period have been investigated and results show that a range of 11-14 kyr leads to an error upper limit of about 30% in the estimation of CaCO3 dissolution rates. The response time of CaCO3 and 230Thex concentrations in the mixed layer of sediments due to an impulse of change in CaCO3 dissolution rate has also been discussed, showing that the observed changes in carbonate dissolution may be explained in terms of a single or a continuous change, depending upon the thickness of the mixed layer.