Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Victorian Dominant Land Cover, 2009-2013

There is a demand for regularly updated, broad-scale, accurate land cover information in Victoria from multiple stakeholders. This paper documents the methods used to generate an annual dominant land cover (DLC) map for Victoria, Australia from 2009 to 2013. Vegetation phenology parameters derived from an annual time series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Indices 16-day 250 m (MOD13Q1) product were used to generate annual DLC maps, using a three-tiered hierarchical classification scheme. Classification accuracy at the broadest (primary) class level was over 91% for all years, while it ranged from 72 to 81% at the secondary class level. The most detailed class level (tertiary) had accuracy levels ranging from 61 to 68%. The approach used was able to accommodate variable climatic conditions, which had substantial impacts on vegetation growth patterns and agricultural production across the state between both regions and years. The production of an annual dataset with complete spatial coverage for Victoria provides a reliable base data set with an accuracy that is fit-for-purpose for many applications.

Salinization Model with links to source files

This computational model of irrigation agriculture is used to study the effects of salinization in Mesopotamia. Scholars have long suspected that central and southern Mesopotamia present environments which limited agricultural production over long-term periods. In regions such as central Mesopotamia, where salinization likely affected settlement in different periods but was more manageable than in more southern regions, fallowing regimes, natural and engineered leaching, and decisions made on when to crop were strategies applied in order to limit the effects of salinization. The model is used to assess the effectiveness of these coping strategies by incorporating projected climate, soil, and landscape conditions with agricultural practices. The simulation results not only demonstrate the effectiveness and limitations of techniques to inhibiting progressive salinization but can be compared with the archaeological record in order to determine if the results correspond to past events and help to interpret past settlement history.

Nitrogen isotope variations along the northeast Pacific margin

Glacial-interglacial changes in sedimentary d15N over the last 120 kyr display a remarkably similar pattern in timing and amplitude in core records extending from the denitrification zone in the eastern tropical North Pacific (ETNP), where subsurface denitrification is active, to the Oregon margin, where no denitrification occurs today. Low d15N values (4-6 per mil) generally characterize glacial stages 2 and 4, and higher d15N values (7-10 per mil) are representative of the Holocene, millennial-scale periods within stage 3, and stage 5. The inferred synchroneity of d15N variations along the entire margin implies that the nitrate isotopic signal produced in the oxygen-poor subsurface waters in the ETNP is rapidly advected northward and recorded at sites far beyond the boundaries of the modern denitrification zone. Similar to d15N, primary production indicators (percent Corg, Ba/Al, and percent opal) show glacial-interglacial as well as millennial-scale variations along the NE Pacific margin, with higher primary production during warm periods. However, the relative phasing between d15N and paleoproduction tracers within individual records changes latitudinally. Whereas d15N and primary production vary approximately synchronously in the midlatitudes, production lags d15N in the ETNP by several kiloyears. This lag calls for a new understanding of the processes driving denitrification in the ETNP. We suggest that oxygen input by the Equatorial Undercurrent as well as local organic matter flux controls denitrification rates in the ETNP. Moreover, the differences in relative timing point to a time-transgressive development of upwelling-favorable winds along the NE Pacific margin after the last glaciation, with those in the north developing several kiloyears earlier.

Measured daily precipitation sums over Central Sulawesi for the period 1981-1999

Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.

Global assessment of soil phosphorus retention potential

Limited availability of P in soils to crops may be due to deficiency and/or severe P retention. Earlier studies that drew on large soil profile databases have indicated that it is not (yet) feasible to present meaningful values for "plant-available" soil P, obtained according to comparable analytical methods, that may be linked to soil geographical databases derived from 1:5 million scale FAO Digital Soil Map of the World, such as the 5 x 5 arc-minute version of the ISRIC-WISE database. Therefore, an alternative solution for studying possible crop responses to fertilizer-P applied to soils, at a broad scale, was sought. The approach described in this report considers the inherent capacity of soils to retain phosphorus (P retention), in various forms. Main controlling factors of P retention processes, at the broad scale under consideration, are considered to be pH, soil mineralogy, and clay content. First, derived values for these properties were used to rate the inferred capacity for P retention of the component soil units of each map unit (or grid cell) using four classes (i.e., Low, Moderate, High, and Very High). Subsequently, the overall soil phosphorus retention potential was assessed for each mapping unit, taking into account the P-ratings and relative proportion of each component soil unit. Each P retention class has been assigned to a likely fertilizer P recovery fraction, derived from the literature, thereby permitting spatially more detailed, integrated model-based studies of environmental sustainability and agricultural production at the global and continental level (< 1:5 million). Nonetheless, uncertainties remain high; the present analysis provides an approximation of world soil phosphorus retention potential.

Characteristics of soil profiles from the Ouémé Upper Catchment (HVO), Térou, Benin

Soil degradation threatens agricultural production and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the coming decades, soil degradation, in particular soil erosion, will become worse through the expansion of agriculture into savannah and forest and changes in climate. This study aims to improve the understanding of how land use and climate change affect the hydrological cycle and soil erosion rates at the catchment scale. We used the semi-distributed, time-continuous erosion model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) to quantify runoff processes and sheet and rill erosion in the Upper Ouémé River catchment (14500 km**2, Central Benin) for the period 1998-2005. We could then evaluate a range of land use and climate change scenarios with the SWAT model for the period 2001-2050 using spatial data from the land use model CLUE-S and the regional climate model REMO. Field investigations were performed to parameterise a soil map, to measure suspended sediment concentrations for model calibration and validation and to characterise erosion forms, degraded agricultural fields and soil conservation practices. Modelling results reveal current "hotspots" of soil erosion in the north-western, eastern and north-eastern parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment. As a consequence of rapid expansion of agricultural areas triggered by high population growth (partially caused by migration) and resulting increases in surface runoff and topsoil erosion, the mean sediment yield in the Upper Ouémé River outlet is expected to increase by 42 to 95% by 2025, depending on the land use scenario. In contrast, changes in climate variables led to decreases in sediment yield of 5 to 14% in 2001-2025 and 17 to 24% in 2026-2050. Combined scenarios showed the dominance of land use change leading to changes in mean sediment yield of -2 to +31% in 2001-2025. Scenario results vary considerably within the catchment. Current "hotspots" of soil erosion will aggravate, and a new "hotspot" will appear in the southern part of the catchment. Although only small parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment belong to the most degraded zones in the country, sustainable soil and plant management practices should be promoted in the entire catchment. The results of this study can support planning of soil conservation activities in Benin.