Estimation of sea surface temperatures and salinity of ODP Site 177-1089 (Appendix A)

ODP Site 1089 is optimally located in order to monitor the occurrence of maxima in Agulhas heat and salt spillage from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean. Radiolarian-based paleotemperature transfer functions allowed to reconstruct the climatic history for the last 450 kyr at this location. A warm sea surface temperature anomaly during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 was recognized and traced to other oceanic records along the surface branch of the global thermohaline (THC) circulation system, and is particularly marked at locations where a strong interaction between oceanic and atmospheric overturning cells and fronts occurs. This anomaly is absent in the Vostok ice core deuterium, and in oceanic records from the Antarctic Zone. However, it is present in the deuterium excess record from the Vostok ice core, interpreted as reflecting the temperature at the moisture source site for the snow precipitated at Vostok Station. As atmospheric models predict a subtropical Indian source for such moisture, this provides the necessary teleconnection between East Antarctica and ODP Site 1089, as the subtropical Indian is also the source area of the Agulhas Current, the main climate agent at our study location. The presence of the MIS 10 anomaly in the delta13C foraminiferal records from the same core supports its connection to oceanic mechanisms, linking stronger Agulhas spillover intensity to increased productivity in the study area. We suggest, in analogy to modern oceanographic observations, this to be a consequence of a shallow nutricline, induced by eddy mixing and baroclinic tide generation, which are in turn connected to the flow geometry, and intensity, of the Agulhas Current as it flows past the Agulhas Bank. We interpret the intensified inflow of Agulhas Current to the South Atlantic as responding to the switch between lower and higher amplitude in the insolation forcing in the Agulhas Current source area. This would result in higher SSTs in the Cape Basin during the glacial MIS 10, due to the release into the South Atlantic of the heat previously accumulating in the subtropical and equatorial Indian and Pacific Ocean. If our explanation for the MIS 10 anomaly in terms of an insolation variability switch is correct, we might expect that a future Agulhas SSST anomaly event will further delay the onset of next glacial age. In fact, the insolation forcing conditions for the Holocene (the current interglacial) are very similar to those present during MIS 11 (the interglacial preceding MIS 10), as both periods are characterized by a low insolation variability for the Agulhas Current source area. Natural climatic variability will force the Earth system in the same direction as the anthropogenic global warming trend, and will thus lead to even warmer than expected global temperatures in the near future.

Age models, color measurements, and calculated sea surface temperatures of sediment cores from the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk

Past changes in North Pacific sea surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions are proposed to play a crucial role in deglacial climate development and ocean circulation but are less well known than from the North Atlantic. Here, we present new alkenone-based sea surface temperature records from the subarctic northwest Pacific and its marginal seas (Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk) for the time interval of the last 15 kyr, indicating millennial-scale sea surface temperature fluctuations similar to short-term deglacial climate oscillations known from Greenland ice-core records. Past changes in sea-ice distribution are derived from relative percentage of specific diatom groups and qualitative assessment of the IP25 biomarker related to sea-ice diatoms. The deglacial variability in sea-ice extent matches the sea surface temperature fluctuations. These fluctuations suggest a linkage to deglacial variations in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and a close atmospheric coupling between the North Pacific and North Atlantic. During the Holocene the subarctic North Pacific is marked by complex sea surface temperature trends, which do not support the hypothesis of a Holocene seesaw in temperature development between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific.

Integrated Data Sets of the EU FP5 Research Project ORFOIS: Origin and fate of biogenic particle fluxes in the ocean and their interactions with atmospheric CO2 concentrations as well as the marine sediment

For a reliable simulation of the time and space dependent CO2 redistribution between ocean and atmosphere an appropriate time dependent simulation of particle dynamics processes is essential but has not been carried out so far. The major difficulties were the lack of suitable modules for particle dynamics and early diagenesis (in order to close the carbon and nutrient budget) in ocean general circulation models, and the lack of an understanding of biogeochemical processes, such as the partial dissolution of calcareous particles in oversaturated water. The main target of ORFOIS was to fill in this gap in our knowledge and prediction capability infrastructure. This goal has been achieved step by step. At first comprehensive data bases (already existing data) of observations of relevance for the three major types of biogenic particles, organic carbon (POC), calcium carbonate (CaCO3), and biogenic silica (BSi or opal), as well as for refractory particles of terrestrial origin were collated and made publicly available.

Age models of sediment cores from the Southern Ocean

Recent geochemical models invoke ocean alkalinity changes, particularly in the surface Southern Ocean, to explain glacial age pCO2 reduction. In such models, alkalinity increases in glacial periods are driven by reductions in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) supply, which lead to increases in deep-water nutrients and dissolution of carbonate sediments, and to increased alkalinity of Circumpolar Deep Water upwelling in the surface Southern Ocean. We use cores from the Southeast Indian Ridge and from the deep Cape Basin in the South Atlantic to show that carbonate dissolution was enhanced during glacial stages in areas now bathed by Circumpolar Deep Water. This suggests that deep Southern Ocean carbonate ion concentrations were lower in glacial stages than in interglacials, rather than higher as suggested by the polar alkalinity model [Broecker and Peng, 1989, doi:10.1029/GB001i001p00015]. Our observations show that changes in Southern Ocean CaCO3 preservation are coherent with changes in the relative flux of NADW, suggesting that Southern Ocean carbonate chemistry is closely linked to changes in deepwater circulation. The pattern of enhanced dissolution in glacials is consistent with a reduction in the supply of nutrient-depleted water (NADW) to the Southern Ocean and with an increase of nutrients in deep water masses. Carbonate mass accumulation rates on the Southeast Indian Ridge (3200-3800 m), and in relatively shallow cores (<3000 m) from the Kerguelen Plateau and the South Pacific were significantly reduced during glacial stages, by about 50%. The reduced carbonate mass accumulation rates and enhanced dissolution during glacials may be partly due to decreases in CaCO3:Corg flux ratios, acting as another mechanism which would raise the alkalinity of Southern Ocean surface waters. The polar alkalinity model assumes that the ratio of organic carbon to carbonate production on surface alkalinity is constant. Even if overall productivity in the Southern Ocean were held constant, a decrease in the CaCO3:Corg ratio would result in increased alkalinity and reduced pCO2 in Southern Ocean surface waters during glacials. This ecologically driven surface alkalinity change may enhance deepwater-mediated changes in alkalinity, and amplify rapid changes in pCO2.

Age models and stable isotope ratios from the Mid-Miocene

Mid-Miocene pelagic sedimentary sections can be correlated using intermediate and high resolution oxygen and carbon isotopic records of benthic foraminifera. Precision of a few tens of thousands of years is readily achievable at sites with high sedimentation rates, for example, Deep Sea Drilling Project sites 289 and 574. The mid-Miocene carbon isotope records are characterized by an interval of high d13C values between 17 and 13.5 Ma (the Monterey Excursion of Vincent and Berger 1985) upon which are superimposed a series of periodic or quasi-periodic fluctuations in d13C values. These fluctuations have a period of approximately 440 kyr, suggestive of the 413 kyr cycle predicted by Milankovitch theory. Vincent and Berger proposed that the Monterey Excursion was the result of increased organic carbon burial in continental margins sediments. The increased d13C values (called 13C maxima) superimposed on the generally high mid-Miocene signal coincide with increases in d18O values suggesting that periods of cooling and/or ice buildup were associated with exceptionally rapid burial of organic carbon and lowered atmospheric CO2 levels. It is likely that during the Monterey Excursion the ocean/atmosphere system became progressively more sensitive to small changes in insolation, ultimately leading to major cooling of deep water and expansion of continental ice. We have assigned an absolute chronology, based on biostratigraphic and magneto-biostratigraphic datum levels, to the isotope stratigraphy and have used that chronology to correlate unconformities, seismic reflectors, carbonate minima, and dissolution intervals. Intervals of sediment containing 13C maxima are usually better preserved than the overlying and underlying sediments, indicating that the d13C values of TCO2 in deep water and the corrosiveness of seawater are inversely correlated. This again suggests that the 13C maxima were associated with rapid burial of organic carbon and reduced levels of atmospheric CO2. The absolute chronology we have assigned to the isotopic record indicates that the major mid-Miocene deepwater cooling/ice volume expansion took 2 m.y. and was not abrupt as had been reported previously. The cooling appears abrupt at many sites because the interval is characterized by a number of dissolution intervals. The cooling was not monotonic, and the 2 m.y. interval included an episode of especially rapid cooling as well as a brief return to warmer conditions before the final phase of the cooling period. The increase in d18O values of benthic foraminifera between 14.9 and 12.9 Ma was greatest at deeper water sites and at sites closest to Antarctica. The data suggest that the d18O value of seawater increased by no more than about 1.1 per mil during this interval and that the remainder of the change in benthic d18O values resulted from cooling in Antarctic regions of deepwater formation. Equatorial planktonic foraminifera from sites 237 and 289 exhibit a series of 0.4 per mil steplike increases in d13C values. Only one of these increases in planktonic d13C is correlated with any of the features in the mid-Miocene benthic carbon isotope record.

Age models, organic analyses and major-element analyses of sediment cores on a transect of the tropical African rainbelt

The distribution of rainfall in tropical Africa is controlled by the African rainbelt**1, which oscillates on a seasonal basis. The rainbelt has varied on centennial to millennial timescales along with changes in Northern Hemisphere high-latitude climate**2, 3, 4, 5, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation**6 and low-latitude insolation**7 over the past glacial-interglacial cycle. However, the overall dynamics of the African rainbelt remain poorly constrained and are not always consistent with a latitudinal migration**2, 4, 5, 6, as has been proposed for other regions**8, 9. Here we use terrestrially derived organic and sedimentary markers from marine sediment cores to reconstruct the distribution of vegetation, and hence rainfall, in tropical Africa during extreme climate states over the past 23,000 years. Our data indicate that rather than migrating latitudinally, the rainbelt contracted and expanded symmetrically in both hemispheres in response to changes in climate. During the Last Glacial Maximum and Heinrich Stadial 1, the rainbelt contracted relative to the late Holocene, which we attribute to a latitudinal compression of atmospheric circulation associated with lower global mean temperatures**10. Conversely, during the mid-Holocene climatic optimum, the rainbelt expanded across tropical Africa. In light of our findings, it is not clear whether the tropical rainbelt has migrated latitudinally on a global scale, as has been suggested**8,9.

Age models and summer sea surface temperature and winter sea ice concentration for the EPILOG-LGM time slice in the Pacific Southern Ocean

Sea surface temperatures and sea-ice extent are the most critical variables to evaluate the Southern Ocean paleoceanographic evolution in relation to the development of the global carbon cycle, atmospheric CO2 variability and ocean-atmosphere circulation. In contrast to the Atlantic and the Indian sectors, the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean has been insufficiently investigated so far. To cover this gap of information we present diatom-based estimates of summer sea surface temperature (SSST) and winter sea-ice concentration (WSI) from 17 sites in the polar South Pacific to study the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at the EPILOG time slice (19,000-23,000 cal. years BP). Applied statistical methods are the Imbrie and Kipp Method (IKM) and the Modern Analog Technique (MAT) to estimate temperature and sea-ice concentration, respectively. Our data display a distinct LGM east-west differentiation in SSST and WSI with steeper latitudinal temperature gradients and a winter sea-ice edge located consistently north of the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge in the Ross sea sector. In the eastern sector of our study area, which is governed by the Amundsen Abyssal Plain, the estimates yield weaker latitudinal SSST gradients together with a variable extended winter sea-ice field. In this sector, sea-ice extent may have reached sporadically the area of the present Subantarctic Front at its maximum LGM expansion. This pattern points to topographic forcing as major controller of the frontal system location and sea-ice extent in the western Pacific sector whereas atmospheric conditions like the Southern Annular Mode and the ENSO affected the oceanographic conditions in the eastern Pacific sector. Although it is difficult to depict the location and the physical nature of frontal systems separating the glacial Southern Ocean water masses into different zones, we found a distinct temperature gradient in latitudes straddled by the modern Southern Subtropical Front. Considering that the glacial temperatures north of this zone are similar to the modern, we suggest that this represents the Glacial Southern Subtropical Front (GSSTF), which delimits the zone of strongest glacial SSST cooling (>4K) to its North. The southern boundary of the zone of maximum cooling is close to the glacial 4°C isotherm. This isotherm, which is in the range of SSST at the modern Antarctic Polar Front (APF), represents a circum-Antarctic feature and marks the northern edge of the glacial Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). We also assume that a glacial front was established at the northern average winter sea ice edge, comparable with the modern Southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current Front (SACCF). During the glacial, this front would be located in the area of the modern APF. The northward deflection of colder than modern surface waters along the South American continent leads to a significant cooling of the glacial Humboldt Current surface waters (4-8K), which affects the temperature regimes as far north as into tropical latitudes. The glacial reduction of ACC temperatures may also result in the significant cooling in the Atlantic and Indian Southern Ocean, thus may enhance thermal differentiation of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic continental cooling. Comparison with temperature and sea ice simulations for the last glacial based on numerical simulations show that the majority of modern models overestimate summer and winter sea ice cover and that there exists few models that reproduce our temperature data rather well.

Age models for sediment cores off Peru

Planktonic foraminiferal faunas of the southeast Pacific indicate that sea surface temperatures (SST) have varied by as much as 8-10°C in the Peru Current, and by ?5-7°C along the equator, over the past 150,000 years. Changes in SST at times such as the Last Glacial Maximum reflect incursion of high-latitude species Globorotalia inflata and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma into the eastern boundary current and as far north as the equator. A simple heat budget model of the equatorial Pacific shows that observed changes in Peru Current advection can account for about half of the total variability in equatorial SSTs. The remaining changes in equatorial SST, which are likely related to local changes in upwelling or pycnocline depth, precede changes in polar climates as recorded by d18O. This partitioning of processes in eastern equatorial Pacific SST reveals that net ice-age cooling here reflects first a rapid response of equatorial upwelling to insolation, followed by a later response to changes in the eastern boundary current associated with high-latitude climate (which closely resembles variations in atmospheric CO2 as recorded in the Vostok ice core). Although precise mechanisms responsible for the equatorial upwelling component of climate change remain uncertain, one likely candidate that may operate independently of the ice sheets is insolation-driven changes in El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency. Early responses of equatorial SST detected both here and elsewhere highlight the sensitivity of tropical systems to small changes in seasonal insolation. The scale of tropical changes we have observed are substantially greater than model predictions, suggesting a need for further quantitative assessment of processes associated with long-term climate change.

Age models and stable isotope record of sediment cores from the Atlantic Ocean

The high-resolution delta18O and delta13C records of benthic foraminifera from a 150,000-year long core from the Caribbean Sea indicate that there was generally high delta13C during glaciations and low delta13C during interglaciations. Due to its 1800-m sill depth, the properties of deep water in the Caribbean Sea are similar to those of middepth tropical Atlantic water. During interglaciations, the water filling the deep Caribbean Sea is an admixture of low delta13C Upper Circumpolar Water (UCPW) and high delta13C Upper North Atlantic Deep Water (UNADW). By contrast, only high delta13C UNADW enters during glaciations. Deep ocean circulation changes can influence atmospheric CO2 levels (Broecker and Takahashi, 1985; Boyle, 1988 doi:10.1029/JC093iC12p15701; Keir, 1988 doi:10.1029/PA003i004p00413; Broecker and Peng, 1989 doi:10.1029/GB003i003p00215). By comparing delta13C records of benthic foraminifera from cores lying in Southern Ocean Water, the Caribbean Sea, and at several other Atlantic Ocean sites, the thermohaline state of the Atlantic Ocean (how close it was to a full glacial or full interglacial configuration) is characterized. A continuum of circulation patterns between the glacial and interglacial extremes appears to have existed in the past. Subtracting the deep Pacific (~mean ocean water) delta13C record from the Caribbean delta13C record yields a record which describes large changes in the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation. The delta13C difference varies as the vertical nutrient distribution changes. This new proxy record bears a striking resemblance to the 150,000-year-long atmospheric CO2 record (Barnola et al., 1987 doi:10.1038/329408a0). This favorable comparison between the new proxy record and the atmospheric CO2 record is consistent with Boyle's (1988a) model that vertical nutrient redistribution has driven large atmospheric CO2 changes in the past. Changes in the relative contribution of NADW and Pacific outflow water to the Southern Ocean are also consistent with Broecker and Peng's (1989) recent model for atmospheric CO2 changes.

Age models, accumulation rates, and grain size distributions of sediment cores from the northern subtropical Atlantic

The terrigenous sediment proportion of the deep sea sediments from off Northwest Africa has been studied in order to distinguish between the aeolian and the fluvial sediment supply. The present and fossil Saharan dust trajectories were recognized from the distribution patterns of the aeolian sediment. The following timeslices have been investigated: Present, 6,000, 12,000 and 18,000 y. B. P. Furthermore, the quantity of dust deposited off the Saharan coast has been estimated. For this purpose, 80 surface sediment samples and 34 sediment cores have been analysed. The stratigraphy of the cores has been achieved from oxygen isotopic curves, 14C-dating, foraminiferal transfer temperatures, and carbonate contents. Silt sized biogenic opal generally accounts for less than 2 % of the total insoluble sediment proportion. Only under productive upwelling waters and off river mouths, the opal proportion exceeds 2 % significantly. The modern terrigenous sediment from off the Saharan coast is generally characterized by intensely stained quartz grains. They indicate an origin from southern Saharan and Sahelian laterites, and a zonal aeolian transport in midtropospheric levels, between 1.5 an 5.5 km, by 'Harmattan' Winds. The dust particles follow large outbreaks of Saharan air across the African coast between 15° and 21° N. Their trajectories are centered at about 18° N and continue further into a clockwise gyre situated south of the Canary Islands. This course is indicated by a sickle-shaped tongue of coarser grain sizes in the deep-sea sediment. Such loess-sized terrigenous particles only settle within a zone extending to 700 km offshore. Fine silt and clay sized particles, with grain sizes smaller than 10- 15 µm, drift still further west and can be traced up to more than 4,000 km distance from their source areas. Additional terrigenous silt which is poor in stained quartz occurs within a narrow zone off the western Sahara between 20° and 27° N only. It depicts the present dust supply by the trade winds close to the surface. The dust load originates from the northwestern Sahara, the Atlas Mountains and coastal areas, which contain a particularly low amount of stained quartz. The distribution pattern of these pale quartz sediments reveals a SSW-dispersal of dust being consistent with the present trade wind direction from the NNE. In comparison to the sediments from off the Sahara and the deeper subtropical Atlantic, the sediments off river mouths, in particular off the Senegal river, are characterized by an additional input of fine grained terrigenous particles (< 6 µm). This is due to fluvial suspension load. The fluvial discharge leads to a relative excess of fine grained particles and is observed in a correlation diagram of the modal grain sizes of terrigenous silt with the proportion of fine fraction (< 6 µm). The aeolian sediment contribution by the Harmattan Winds strongly decreased during the Climatic Optimum at 6,000 y. B. P. The dust discharge of the trade winds is hardly detectable in the deep-sea sediments. This probably indicates a weakened atmospheric circulation. In contrast, the fluvial sediment supply reached a maximum, and can be traced to beyond Cape Blanc. Thus, the Saharan climate was more humid at 6,000 y B. P. A latitudinal shift of the Harmattan driven dust outbreaks cannot be observed. Also during the Glacial, 18,000 y. B. P., Harmattan dust transport crossed the African coast at latitudes of 15°-20° N. Its sediment load increased intensively, and markedly coarser grains spread further into the Atlantic Ocean. An expanded zone of pale-quart sediments indicates an enhanced dust supply by the trade winds blowing from the NE. No synglacial fluvial sediment contribution can be recognized between 12° and 30° N. This indicates a dry glacial climate and a strengthened stmospheric circulation over the Sahelian and Saharan region. The climatic transition pahes, at 12, 000 y. B. P., between the last Glacial and the Intergalcial, which is compareable to the Alerod in Europe, is characterized by an intermediate supply of terrigenous particles. The Harmattan dust transport wa weaker than during the Glacial. The northeasterly trade winds were still intensive. River supply reached a first postglacial maximum seaward of the Senegal river mouth. This indicates increasing humidity over the southern Sahara and a weaker atmospheric circulation as compared to the glacial. The accumulation rates of the terrigenous silt proportion (> 6 µm) decrcase exponentially with increasing distance from the Saharan coast. Those of the terrigenous fine fraction (< 6 µm) follow the same trend and show almost similar gradients. Accordingly, also the terrigenous fine fraction is believed to result predominantly from aeolian transport. In the Atlantic deep-sea sediments, the annual terrigenous sediment accumulation has fluctuated, from about 60 million tons p. a. during the Late Glacial (13,500-18,000 y. B. P, aeolian supply only) to about 33 million tons p. a. during the Holocene Climatic Optimum (6,000-9,000 y. B. P, mainly fluvial supply), when the river supply has reached a maximum, and to about 45 million tons p. a. during the last 4,000 years B. P. (fluvial supply only south of 18° N).

Bomb-tritium input function calculated from the details of the nuclear atmospheric bomb tests released by the UNSCEAR [2000]

Improving the representation of the hydrological cycle in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) is one of the main challenges in modeling the Earth's climate system. One way to evaluate model performance is to simulate the transport of water isotopes. Among those available, tritium (HTO) is an extremely valuable tracer, because its content in the different reservoirs involved in the water cycle (stratosphere, troposphere, ocean) varies by order of magnitude. Previous work incorporated natural tritium into LMDZ-iso, a version of the LMDZ general circulation model enhanced by water isotope diagnostics. Here for the first time, the anthropogenic tritium injected by each of the atmospheric nuclear-bomb tests between 1945 and 1980 has been first estimated and further implemented in the model; it creates an opportunity to evaluate certain aspects of LDMZ over several decades by following the bomb-tritium transient signal through the hydrological cycle. Simulations of tritium in water vapor and precipitation for the period 1950-2008, with both natural and anthropogenic components, are presented in this study. LMDZ-iso satisfactorily reproduces the general shape of the temporal evolution of tritium. However, LMDZ-iso simulates too high a bomb-tritium peak followed by too strong a decrease of tritium in precipitation. The too diffusive vertical advection in AGCMs crucially affects the residence time of tritium in the stratosphere. This insight into model performance demonstrates that the implementation of tritium in an AGCM provides a new and valuable test of the modeled atmospheric transport, complementing water stable isotope modeling.

Towards convection-resolving, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) v3.1: an extreme scaling experiment, links to sourcecode of model and grides

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric model, an ocean model and a land-ice model. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. This concept allows one to include the feedback of regional land use information on weather and climate at local and global scales in a consistent way, which is impossible to achieve with traditional limited area modelling approaches. Here, we present an in-depth evaluation of MPAS with regards to technical aspects of performing model runs and scalability for three medium-size meshes on four different high-performance computing (HPC) sites with different architectures and compilers. We uncover model limitations and identify new aspects for the model optimisation that are introduced by the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes. We further demonstrate the model performance of MPAS in terms of its capability to reproduce the dynamics of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its associated precipitation in a pilot study. Constrained by available computational resources, we compare 11-month runs for two meshes with observations and a reference simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show that MPAS can reproduce the atmospheric dynamics on global and local scales in this experiment, but identify a precipitation excess for the West African region. Finally, we conduct extreme scaling tests on a global 3?km mesh with more than 65 million horizontal grid cells on up to half a million cores. We discuss necessary modifications of the model code to improve its parallel performance in general and specific to the HPC environment. We confirm good scaling (70?% parallel efficiency or better) of the MPAS model and provide numbers on the computational requirements for experiments with the 3?km mesh. In doing so, we show that global, convection-resolving atmospheric simulations with MPAS are within reach of current and next generations of high-end computing facilities.

Sedimentology, age models and stable isotope ratios of sediment cores from the equatorial Pacific

Based on detailed reconstructions of global distribution patterns, both paleoproductivity and the benthic d13C record of CO2, which is dissolved in the deep ocean, strongly differed between the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene. With the onset of Termination I about 15,000 years ago, the new (export) production of low- and mid-latitude upwelling cells started to decline by more than 2-4 Gt carbon/year. This reduction is regarded as a main factor leading to both the simultaneous rise in atmospheric CO2 as recorded in ice cores and, with a slight delay of more than 1000 years, to a large-scale gradual CO2 depletion of the deep ocean by about 650 Gt C. This estimate is based on an average increase in benthic d13C by 0.4-0.5 per mil. The decrease in new production also matches a clear 13C depletion of organic matter, possibly recording an end of extreme nutrient utilization in upwelling cells. As shown by Sarnthein et al., [1987], the productivity reversal appears to be triggered by a rapid reduction in the strength of meridional trades, which in turn was linked via a shrinking extent of sea ice to a massive increase in high-latitude insolation, i.e., to orbital forcing as primary cause.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.