Framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems

Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. The model can be run with the use of GeNIe software package. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.

Mid-Cretaceous planktonic foraminifera off central Morocco

Sites 545 and 547 collectively penetrated 629 m of mid-Cretaceous strata (upper Aptian to upper Cenomanian) off central Morocco during Leg 79 of the Deep Sea Drilling Project. Site 545, at the base of the steep Mazagan Escarpment, records a virtually complete succession of hemipelagic sediments of early late Aptian to middle Cenomanian age. Minor faunal recycling occurred throughout much of the upper Aptian to middle Albian part of the sequence (Cores 55 through 41), reflecting bottom currents along the Mazagan Escarpment. This may be related to the strong upwelling regime and high surface water productivity over Site 545 during the latest Aptian through middle Albian. The upwelling system ceased rather abruptly in this area in late middle Albian time. Recycling of older strata by bottom currents also ceased in the late middle Albian and resulted in a slower average accumulation rate in the upper Albian to middle Cenomanian section of Site 545 (Cores 40 through 28). However, intervals of pebbly claystone conglomerates in Cores 40 and 34 record sporadic instability in the slope adjacent to Site 545. Site 547, located only about 15 km seaward, is situated in a small sub-basin adjacent to the basement block drilled by Site 544. It contains an expanded upper Albian to upper Cenomanian sequence as a result of the numerous conglomeratic intervals throughout much of the section. In contrast to Site 545, the conglomerates were not derived from older strata cropping out on the Mazagan Escarpment; rather, they originated penecontemporaneously from a local unstable slope. A detailed biostratigraphic framework based on planktonic foraminifers is established for the mid-Cretaceous sections of Sites 545 and 547 and a new composite zonal scheme is proposed for the early late Aptian through early late Cenomanian interval. Fifty-five species are recognized and illustrated

Spatially explicit methane inventory for Switzerland with 500 m x 500 m resolution for 2011 (NetCDF 25 MB)

We present the first high-resolution (500 m × 500 m) gridded methane (CH4) emission inventory for Switzerland, which integrates the national emission totals reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and recent CH4 flux studies conducted by research groups across Switzerland. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, we also include natural and semi-natural CH4 fluxes, i.e., emissions from lakes and reservoirs, wetlands, wild animals as well as uptake by forest soils. National CH4 emissions were disaggregated using detailed geostatistical information on source locations and their spatial extent and process- or area-specific emission factors. In Switzerland, the highest CH4 emissions in 2011 originated from the agricultural sector (150 Gg CH4/yr), mainly produced by ruminants and manure management, followed by emissions from waste management (15 Gg CH4/yr) mainly from landfills and the energy sector (12 Gg CH4/yr), which was dominated by emissions from natural gas distribution. Compared to the anthropogenic sources, emissions from natural and semi-natural sources were relatively small (6 Gg CH4/yr), making up only 3 % of the total emissions in Switzerland. CH4 fluxes from agricultural soils were estimated to be not significantly different from zero (between -1.5 and 0 Gg CH4/yr), while forest soils are a CH4 sink (approx. -2.8 Gg CH4/yr), partially offsetting other natural emissions. Estimates of uncertainties are provided for the different sources, including an estimate of spatial disaggregation errors deduced from a comparison with a global (EDGAR v4.2) and a European CH4 inventory (TNO/MACC). This new spatially-explicit emission inventory for Switzerland will provide valuable input for regional scale atmospheric modeling and inverse source estimation.

The early Eocene global warming events: Implications from ODP Leg 208 Walvis Ridge depth transect

Five sections drilled in multiple holes over a depth transect of more than 2200 m at the Walvis Ridge (SE Atlantic) during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 208 resulted in the first complete early Paleogene deep-sea record. Here we present high-resolution stratigraphic records spanning a ~4.3 million yearlong interval of the late Paleocene to early Eocene. This interval includes the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) as well as the Eocene thermal maximum (ETM) 2 event. A detailed chronology was developed with nondestructive X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning records and shipboard color data. These records were used to refine the shipboard-derived spliced composite depth for each site and with a record from ODP Site 1051 were then used to establish a continuous time series over this interval. Extensive spectral analysis reveals that the early Paleogene sedimentary cyclicity is dominated by precession modulated by the short (100 kyr) and long (405 kyr) eccentricity cycles. Counting of precession-related cycles at multiple sites results in revised estimates for the duration of magnetochrons C24r and C25n. Direct comparison between the amplitude modulation of the precession component derived from XRF data and recent models of Earth's orbital eccentricity suggests that the onset of the PETM and ETM2 are related to a 100-kyr eccentricity maximum. Both events are approximately a quarter of a period offset from a maximum in the 405-kyr eccentricity cycle, with the major difference that the PETM is lagging and ETM2 is leading a 405-kyr eccentricity maximum. Absolute age estimates for the PETM, ETM2, and the magnetochron boundaries that are consistent with recalibrated radiometric ages and recent models of Earth's orbital eccentricity cannot be precisely determined at present because of too large uncertainties in these methods. Nevertheless, we provide two possible tuning options, which demonstrate the potential for the development of a cyclostratigraphic framework based on the stable 405-kyr eccentricity cycle for the entire Paleogene.

Species-specific consequences of ocean acidification for the calcareous tropical green algae Halimeda, 2011

Ocean acidification (OA), resulting from increasing dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) in surface waters, is likely to affect many marine organisms, particularly those that calcify. Recent OA studies have demonstrated negative and/or differential effects of reduced pH on growth, development, calcification and physiology, but most of these have focused on taxa other than calcareous benthic macroalgae. Here we investigate the potential effects of OA on one of the most common coral reef macroalgal genera,Halimeda. Species of Halimeda produce a large proportion of the sand in the tropics and are a major contributor to framework development on reefs because of their rapid calcium carbonate production and high turnover rates. On Palmyra Atoll in the central Pacific, we conducted a manipulative bubbling experiment to investigate the potential effects of OA on growth, calcification and photophysiology of 2 species of Halimeda. Our results suggest that Halimeda is highly susceptible to reduced pH and aragonite saturation state but the magnitude of these effects is species specific. H. opuntiasuffered net dissolution and 15% reduction in photosynthetic capacity, while H. taenicola did not calcify but did not alter photophysiology in experimental treatments. The disparate responses of these species to elevated CO2 partial -pressure (pCO2) may be due to anatomical and physiological differences and could represent a shift in their relative dominance in the face of OA. The ability for a species to exert biological control over calcification and the species specific role of the carbonate skeleton may have important implications for the potential effects of OA on ecological function in the future.

Age estimations of calcareous nannofossil biohorizons of the middle Paleocene to early Eocene at ODP Site 208-1262 (Table 1, Appendix B)

Over the last several decades debates on the 'tempo and mode' of evolution have centered on the question whether morphological evolution preferentially occurs gradually or punctuated, i.e., with long periods of stasis alternating with short periods of rapid morphological change and generation of new species. Another major debate is focused on the question whether long-term evolution is driven by, or at least strongly influenced by changes in the environment, or by interaction with other life forms. Microfossils offer a unique opportunity to obtain the large datasets as well as the precision in dating of subsequent samples to study both these questions.We present high-resolution analyses of selected calcareous nannofossils from the deep-sea section recovered at ODP Site 1262 (Leg 208) in the South-eastern Atlantic. The studied section encompasses nannofossil Zones NP4-NP12 (equivalent to CP3-CP10) and Chrons C27r-C24n. We document more than 70 biohorizons occurring over an about 10 Myr time interval, (~62.5 Ma to ~52.5 Ma), and discuss their reliability and reproducibility with respect to previous data, thus providing an improved biostratigraphic framework, which we relate to magnetostratigraphic information, and present for two possible options of a new Paleocene stratigraphic framework based on cyclostratigraphy. This new framework enabled us to tentatively reconstruct steps in the evolution of early Paleogene calcareous nannoplankton through documentation of transitional morphotypes between genera and/or species and of the phylogenetic relations between the genera Fasciculithus, Heliolithus, Discoasteroides and Discoaster, as well as between Rhomboaster and Tribrachiatus. The exceptional record provided by the continuous, composite sequence recovered at Walvis Ridge allows us to describe the mode of evolution among calcareous nannoplankton: new genera and/or new species usually originated through branching of lineages via gradual, but relatively rapid, morphological transitions, as documented by the presence of intermediate forms between the end-member ancestral and descendant forms. Significant modifications in the calcareous nannofossil assemblages are often "related" to significant changes in environmental conditions, but the appearance of structural innovations and radiations within a single genus also occurred during "stable" environmental conditions. These lines of evidence suggest that nannoplankton evolution is not always directly triggered by stressed environmental conditions but could be also driven by endogenous biotic control.