Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

(Table 1) Sea level during storm surges at various sites along the german Baltic Sea coast

A seawall was constructed in 1897 along the steep coast of Streckelsberg, Usedom Island to stop the cliff retreat. It was destroyed several times by storm induced sea floods, reconstructed and gradually extended to a length of 450 m. After the severe storm event of 1/2.3.1949, no more repair work was implemented. The ruins were no longer capable of preventing further erosion of the Streckelsberg cliff. A new protective structure became a necessity against ongoing erosion, and to check the lowering of the abrasion platform. The construction of three breakwaters began in 1995. A severe storm occurred on 3/4.11.1995 before their completion. Coastal bottom sediment mapping using a sidescan-sonar carried out two days later showed that a channel system down to a depth of 1.5 m was cut into the sand layer covering the sea floor on both sides of the Koserow Bank. The bottom of these channels was paved with gravel and boulders. This layer was encountered in the whole surveyed area below a mobile sand layer. Discharged bodies of fine sand half a meter high and erosional cavities several m2 in diameter around boulders led to the conclusion that an intensive sediment movement down to a depth of 11 m had taken place during the storm. A storm related direction of sediment discharge could not be identified. The existing section of the breakwaters withstood the severe storm.