130 resultados para error correction model
Resumo:
The Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) was a large, dynamic ice sheet in the early Holocene. The glacial events through Hudson Strait leading to its eventual demise are recorded in the well-dated Labrador shelf core, MD99-2236 from the Cartwright Saddle. We develop a detailed history of the timing of ice-sheet discharge events from the Hudson Strait outlet of the LIS during the Holocene using high-resolution detrital carbonate, ice rafted detritus (IRD), d18O, and sediment color data. Eight detrital carbonate peaks (DCPs) associated with IRD peaks and light oxygen isotope events punctuate the MD99-2236 record between 11.5 and 8.0 ka. We use the stratigraphy of the DCPs developed from MD99-2236 to select the appropriate DeltaR to calibrate the ages of recorded glacial events in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait such that they match the DCPs in MD99-2236. We associate the eight DCPs with H0, Gold Cove advance, Noble Inlet advance, initial retreat of the Hudson Strait ice stream (HSIS) from Hudson Strait, opening of the Tyrrell Sea, and drainage of glacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. The opening of Foxe Channel and retreat of glacial ice from Foxe Basin are represented by a shoulder in the carbonate data. DeltaR of 350 years applied to the radiocarbon ages constraining glacial events H0 through the opening of the Tyrell Sea provided the best match with the MD99-2236 DCPs; DeltaR values and ages from the literature are used for the younger events. A very close age match was achieved between the 8.2 ka cold event in the Greenland ice cores, DCP7 (8.15 ka BP), and the drainage of glacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. Our stratigraphic comparison between the DCPs in MD99-2236 and the calibrated ages of Hudson Strait/Bay deglacial events shows that the retreat of the HSIS, the opening of the Tyrell Sea, and the catastrophic drainage of glacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway at 8.2 ka are separate events that have been combined in previous estimates of the timing of the 8.2 ka event from marine records. SW Iceland shelf core MD99-2256 documents freshwater entrainment into the subpolar gyre from the Hudson Strait outlet via the Labrador, North Atlantic, and Irminger currents. The timing of freshwater release from the LIS Hudson Strait outlet in MD99-2236 matches evidence for freshwater forcing and LIS icebergs carrying foreign minerals to the SW Iceland shelf between 11.5 and 8.2 ka. The congruency of these records supports the conclusion of the entrainment of freshwater from the retreat of the LIS through Hudson Strait into the subpolar gyre and provides specific time periods when pulses of LIS freshwater were present to influence climate.
Comparison of the stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic values of gill and white muscle tissue of fish
Resumo:
The potential use of stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios (d13C, d15N) of fish gills for studies on fish feeding ecology was evaluated by comparing the d13C and d15N of gill tissue with the more commonly used white muscle tissue. To account for the effect of lipid content on the d13C signatures, a study-specific lipid correction model based on C:N ratios was developed and applied to the bulk d13C data. For the majority of species in the study, we found no significant difference in d13C values between gill and muscle tissue after correction, but several species showed a small (0.3-1.4 per mil) depletion in 13C in white muscle compared to gill tissue. The average species difference in d15N between muscle and gill tissue ranged from -0.2 to 1.6 per mil for the different fish species with muscle tissue generally more enriched in 15N. The d13C values of muscle and gill were strongly linearly correlated (R**2 = 0.85) over a large isotopic range (13 per mil), suggesting that both tissues can be used to determine long-term feeding or migratory habits of fish. Muscle and gill tissue bulk d15N values were also strongly positively correlated (R**2= 0.76) but with a small difference between muscle and gill tissue. This difference indicates that the bulk d15N of the two tissue types may be influenced by different isotopic turnover rates or a different composition of amino acids.
Resumo:
Thirty years after oxygen isotope records from microfossils deposited in ocean sediments confirmed the hypothesis that variations in the Earth's orbital geometry control the ice ages (Hays et al., 1976, doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121), fundamental questions remain over the response of the Antarctic ice sheets to orbital cycles (Raymo and Huybers, 2008, doi:10.1038/nature06589). Furthermore, an understanding of the behaviour of the marine-based West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) during the 'warmer-than-present' early-Pliocene epoch (~5-3 Myr ago) is needed to better constrain the possible range of ice-sheet behaviour in the context of future global warming (Solomon et al., 2007). Here we present a marine glacial record from the upper 600 m of the AND-1B sediment core recovered from beneath the northwest part of the Ross ice shelf by the ANDRILL programme and demonstrate well-dated, ~40-kyr cyclic variations in ice-sheet extent linked to cycles in insolation influenced by changes in the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) during the Pliocene. Our data provide direct evidence for orbitally induced oscillations in the WAIS, which periodically collapsed, resulting in a switch from grounded ice, or ice shelves, to open waters in the Ross embayment when planetary temperatures were up to ~3° C warmer than today ( Kim and Crowley, 2000, doi:10.1029/1999PA000459) and atmospheric CO2 concentration was as high as ~400 p.p.m.v. (van der Burgh et al., 1993, doi:10.1126/science.260.5115.1788, Raymo et al., 1996, doi:10.1016/0377-8398(95)00048-8). The evidence is consistent with a new ice-sheet/ice-shelf model (Pollard and DeConto, 2009, doi:10.1038/nature07809) that simulates fluctuations in Antarctic ice volume of up to +7 m in equivalent sea level associated with the loss of the WAIS and up to +3 m in equivalent sea level from the East Antarctic ice sheet, in response to ocean-induced melting paced by obliquity. During interglacial times, diatomaceous sediments indicate high surface-water productivity, minimal summer sea ice and air temperatures above freezing, suggesting an additional influence of surface melt (Huybers, 2006, doi:10.1126/science.1125249) under conditions of elevated CO2.
Resumo:
Geostrophic surface velocities can be derived from the gradients of the mean dynamic topography-the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. Therefore, independently observed mean dynamic topography data are valuable input parameters and constraints for ocean circulation models. For a successful fit to observational dynamic topography data, not only the mean dynamic topography on the particular ocean model grid is required, but also information about its inverse covariance matrix. The calculation of the mean dynamic topography from satellite-based gravity field models and altimetric sea surface height measurements, however, is not straightforward. For this purpose, we previously developed an integrated approach to combining these two different observation groups in a consistent way without using the common filter approaches (Becker et al. in J Geodyn 59(60):99-110, 2012, doi:10.1016/j.jog.2011.07.0069; Becker in Konsistente Kombination von Schwerefeld, Altimetrie und hydrographischen Daten zur Modellierung der dynamischen Ozeantopographie, 2012, http://nbn-resolving.de/nbn:de:hbz:5n-29199). Within this combination method, the full spectral range of the observations is considered. Further, it allows the direct determination of the normal equations (i.e., the inverse of the error covariance matrix) of the mean dynamic topography on arbitrary grids, which is one of the requirements for ocean data assimilation. In this paper, we report progress through selection and improved processing of altimetric data sets. We focus on the preprocessing steps of along-track altimetry data from Jason-1 and Envisat to obtain a mean sea surface profile. During this procedure, a rigorous variance propagation is accomplished, so that, for the first time, the full covariance matrix of the mean sea surface is available. The combination of the mean profile and a combined GRACE/GOCE gravity field model yields a mean dynamic topography model for the North Atlantic Ocean that is characterized by a defined set of assumptions. We show that including the geodetically derived mean dynamic topography with the full error structure in a 3D stationary inverse ocean model improves modeled oceanographic features over previous estimates.
Resumo:
Although grassland and savanna occupy only a quarter of the world's vegetation, burning in these ecosystems accounts for roughly half the global carbon emissions from fire. However, the processes that govern changes in grassland burning are poorly understood, particularly on time scales beyond satellite records. We analyzed microcharcoal, sediments, and geochemistry in a high-resolution marine sediment core off Namibia to identify the processes that have controlled biomass burning in southern African grassland ecosystems under large, multimillennial-scale climate changes. Six fire cycles occurred during the past 170,000 y in southern Africa that correspond both in timing and magnitude to the precessional forcing of north-south shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Contrary to the conventional expectation that fire increases with higher temperatures and increased drought, we found that wetter and cooler climates cause increased burning in the study region, owing to a shift in rainfall amount and seasonality (and thus vegetation flammability). We also show that charcoal morphology (i.e., the particle's length-to-width ratio) can be used to reconstruct changes in fire activity as well as biome shifts over time. Our results provide essential context for understanding current and future grassland-fire dynamics and their associated carbon emissions.
Resumo:
Uncertainty information for global leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global modeling studies but usually difficult to systematically obtain at a global scale. Here, we present a new method that cross-validates existing global LAI products and produces consistent uncertainty information. The method is based on a triple collocation error model (TCEM) that assumes errors among LAI products are not correlated. Global monthly absolute and relative uncertainties, in 0.05° spatial resolutions, were generated for MODIS, CYCLOPES, and GLOBCARBON LAI products, with reasonable agreement in terms of spatial patterns and biome types. CYCLOPES shows the lowest absolute and relative uncertainties, followed by GLOBCARBON and MODIS. Grasses, crops, shrubs, and savannas usually have lower uncertainties than forests in association with the relatively larger forest LAI. With their densely vegetated canopies, tropical regions exhibit the highest absolute uncertainties but the lowest relative uncertainties, the latter of which tend to increase with higher latitudes. The estimated uncertainties of CYCLOPES generally meet the quality requirements (± 0.5) proposed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), whereas for MODIS and GLOBCARBON only non-forest biome types have met the requirement. Nevertheless, none of the products seems to be within a relative uncertainty requirements of 20%. Further independent validation and comparative studies are expected to provide a fair assessment of uncertainties derived from TCEM. Overall, the proposed TCEM is straightforward and could be automated for the systematic processing of real time remote sensing observations to provide theoretical uncertainty information for a wider range of land products.
Resumo:
We investigate changes in the delivery and oceanic transport of Amazon sediments related to terrestrial climate variations over the last 250 ka. We present high-resolution geochemical records from four marine sediment cores located between 5 and 12° N along the northern South American margin. The Amazon River is the sole source of terrigenous material for sites at 5 and 9° N, while the core at 12° N receives a mixture of Amazon and Orinoco detrital particles. Using an endmember unmixing model, we estimated the relative proportions of Amazon Andean material ("%-Andes", at 5 and 9° N) and of Amazon material ("%-Amazon", at 12° N) within the terrigenous fraction. The %-Andes and %-Amazon records exhibit significant precessional variations over the last 250 ka that are more pronounced during interglacials in comparison to glacial periods. High %-Andes values observed during periods of high austral summer insolation reflect the increased delivery of suspended sediments by Andean tributaries and enhanced Amazonian precipitation, in agreement with western Amazonian speleothem records. Increased Amazonian rainfall reflects the intensification of the South American monsoon in response to enhanced land-ocean thermal gradient and moisture convergence. However, low %-Amazon values obtained at 12° N during the same periods seem to contradict the increased delivery of Amazon sediments. We propose that reorganizations in surface ocean currents modulate the northwestward transport of Amazon material. In agreement with published records, the seasonal North Brazil Current retroflection is intensified (or prolonged in duration) during cold substages of the last 250 ka (which correspond to intervals of high DJF or low JJA insolation) and deflects eastward the Amazon sediment and freshwater plume.