Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Fossil plant remains in DSDP Leg 80 holes

The lower part of the syn-rift Barremian-?Hauterivian section at Site 549 contains a large amount of acid-resistant land-derived organic matter that, as elsewhere in the Cretaceous sediments of the IPOD Leg 80 sites, is thermally immature. This plant debris was derived from a vegetation made up of many species of pteridophytes and gymnosperms. The palynofacies indicate that the sediments were deposited in shallow marginal and nonmarine environments and that the climate was probably warm temperate and fairly moist at the time. Source potential for gas is suggested at some horizons. Most of the younger Lower Cretaceous sediments at this and the other sites were deposited in more open marine conditions. Although they generally contain less organic matter, land plant remains continue to comprise a major part of the palynofacies. The Upper Cretaceous sediments were mainly deposited in well oxygenated conditions and are organically lean. However, stratigraphically restricted dark-colored shales at Sites 549 to 551 contain relatively large quantities of amorphous detritus of at least partly marine origin. These characteristics are suggestive of deposition during periods of restricted circulation and also of source potential for oil and gas if maturation levels had been higher.