181 resultados para species distribution model


Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We have studied Ocean Drilling Program Site 1060 on the Blake Outer Ridge, which lies beneath the Gulf Stream. We focus on marine isotope stage 3, 60-25 thousand years before present (ka). Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) inferred both from foraminiferal fauna and alkenone ratios, as well as counts of iceberg melt-out debris and benthic stable isotope analyses, enable our record to be interpreted in terms of regional hydrographic changes as well as changing thermohaline circulation (THC). The observed SST record is consistent with the air temperature record from the Greenland ice cores. However, Site 1060 exhibits important differences in detail compared with the ice core record, and when compared to other sites within the North Atlantic, significant longitudinal differences emerge. At Site 1060 in the western Atlantic, all Greenland stadials (GS) whether associated with Heinrich events (HEs) or not, show a similar small amplitude of cooling; mean faunal-based SSTaug during GS is only 1.5°C colder than during Greenland interstadials (GIS). In addition, during GS the coldest SSTs are limited to apparently brief events. This is in contrast to several eastern Atlantic sites where HE stadials exhibit coolings that are enhanced by 2°C compared to other GS and where cold conditions are not restricted to cold pulses but cover 2 ka-long intervals. Furthermore, Site 1060 SSTs remained warm right through each interstadial, in contrast to the sustained and uniform cooling trend through interstadials that is consistently observed in Greenland, indicated by measurements of delta18O in ice.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The mid-Piacenzian (MP) warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) has been identified as the most recent time in geologic history during which mean global surface temperatures were considerably warmer than today for a sustained period. This interval has therefore been proposed as a potential (albeit imperfect) analog for future climate change and as such, has received much scientific attention over the past two decades. Central to this research effort is the Pliocene Research, Interpretation, and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) project, an iterative paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the MP focused on increasing our understanding of warm-period climate forcings, dynamics, and feedbacks by providing three-dimensional data sets for general circulation models. A mainstay of the PRISM project has been the development of a global sea surface temperature (SST) data set based primarily upon quantitative analyses of planktic foraminifer assemblages, supplemented with geochemical SST estimates wherever possible. In order to improve spatial coverage of the PRISM faunal data set in the low and mid-latitude North Atlantic, this study provides a description of the MP planktic foraminifer assemblage from five Ocean Drilling Program sites (951, 958, 1006, 1062, and 1063) in the subtropical gyre, a region critical to Atlantic Ocean circulation and tropical heat advection. Assemblages from each core provide evidence for a temperature- and circulation-driven 5-10° northward displacement of MP faunal provinces, as well as regional shifts in planktic foraminifer populations linked to species ecology and interactions. General biogeographic trends also indicate that, relative to modern conditions, gyre circulation was stronger (particularly the Gulf Stream, North Atlantic Current, and North Equatorial Current) and meridionally broader. A comparison of mid-Piacenzian and modern North Atlantic planktic foraminifer assemblages suggests that low latitude western boundary currents were less than 1 °C warmer while eastern boundary currents were ~1-2 °C warmer, supporting the hypothesis of enhanced northward heat advection along western boundary currents and warming of high latitude Northeast Atlantic source regions for the Canary Current. These findings are consistent with a model of reduced meridional SST gradients, with little-to-no low latitude warming, and more vigorous ocean circulation. Results therefore support the theory that enhanced meridional overturn circulation and associated northward heat advection made an important contribution, in conjunction with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, to the 2-3 °C global surface temperature increase (relative to today) and strong polar amplification of SST warmth during the MP warm period.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Soil fauna in the extreme conditions of Antarctica consists of a few microinvertebrate species patchily distributed at different spatial scales. Populations of the prostigmatic mite Stereotydeus belli and the collembolan Gressittacantha terranova from northern Victoria Land (Antarctica) were used as models to study the effect of soil properties on microarthropod distributions. In agreement with the general assumption that the development and distribution of life in these ecosystems is mainly controlled by abiotic factors, we found that the probability of occurrence of S. belli depends on soil moisture and texture and on the sampling period (which affects the general availability of water); surprisingly, none of the analysed variables were significantly related to the G. terranova distribution. Based on our results and literature data, we propose a theoretical model that introduces biotic interactions among the major factors driving the local distribution of collembolans in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems.

Relevância:

40.00% 40.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Two lithological-stratigraphic intervals have been distinguished in the Morocco basin by a study of lithologic composition of bottom sediments as well as of planktic and bottom foraminifera present in them. Conditions, under which they developed, are discussed.