340,000-year centennial-scale marine record of southern hemisphere climatic oscillation

In order to investigate rapid climatic changes at mid-southern latitudes, we have developed centennial-scale paleoceanographic records from the southwest Pacific that enable detailed comparison with Antarctic ice core records. These records suggest close coupling of mid-southern latitudes with Antarctic climate during deglacial and interglacial periods. Glacial sections display higher variability than is seen in Antarctic ice cores, which implies climatic decoupling between mid- and high southern latitudes due to enhanced circum-Antarctic circulation. Structural and temporal similarity with the Greenland ice core record is evident in glacial sections and suggests a degree of interhemispheric synchroneity not predicted from bipolar ice core correlations.

(Fig. 4) Multiproxy data set of box core MSM5/5-712-1

A multiproxy data set of an AMS radiocarbon dated 46 cm long sediment core from the continental margin off western Svalbard reveals multidecadal climatic variability during the past two millennia. Investigation of planktic and benthic stable isotopes, planktic foraminiferal fauna, and lithogenic parameters aims to unveil the Atlantic Water advection to the eastern Fram Strait by intensity, temperatures, and salinities. Atlantic Water has been continuously present at the site over the last 2,000 years. Superimposed on the increase in sea ice/icebergs, a strengthened intensity of Atlantic Water inflow and seasonal ice-free conditions were detected at ~ 1000 to 1200 AD, during the well-known Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). However, temperatures of the MCA never exceeded those of the 20th century. Since ~ 1400 AD significantly higher portions of ice rafted debris and high planktic foraminifer fluxes suggest that the site was located in the region of a seasonal highly fluctuating sea ice margin. A sharp reduction in planktic foraminifer fluxes around 800 AD and after 1730 AD indicates cool summer conditions with major influence of sea ice/icebergs. High amounts of the subpolar planktic foraminifer species Turborotalia quinqueloba in size fraction 150-250 µm indicate strengthened Atlantic Water inflow to the eastern Fram Strait already after ~ 1860 AD. Nevertheless surface conditions stayed cold well into the 20th century indicated by low planktic foraminiferal fluxes. Most likely at the beginning of the 20th century, cold conditions of the terminating Little Ice Age period persisted at the surface whereas warm and saline Atlantic Water already strengthened, hereby subsiding below the cold upper mixed layer. Surface sediments with high abundances of subpolar planktic foraminifers indicate a strong inflow of Atlantic Water providing seasonal ice-free conditions in the eastern Fram Strait during the last few decades.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Mortality and climatic/environmental correlates of Widdringtonia cedargensis trees in the Cederberg, South Africa

Background: Conifer populations appear disproportionately threatened by global change. Most examples are, however, drawn from the northern hemisphere and long-term rates of population decline are not well documented as historical data are often lacking. We use a large and long-term (1931-2013) repeat photography dataset together with environmental data and fire records to account for the decline of the critically endangered Widdringtonia cedarbergensis. Eighty-seven historical and repeat photo-pairs were analysed to establish 20th century changes in W. cedarbergensis demography. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was fitted to determine the relative importance of environmental factors and fire-return interval on mortality for the species. Results: From an initial total of 1313 live trees in historical photographs, 74% had died and only 44 (3.4%) had recruited in the repeat photographs, leaving 387 live individuals. Juveniles (mature adults) had decreased (increased) from 27% (73%) to 8% (92%) over the intervening period. Our model demonstrates that mortality is related to greater fire frequency, higher temperatures, lower elevations, less rocky habitats and aspect (i.e. east-facing slopes had the least mortality). Conclusions: Our results show that W. cedarbergensis populations have declined significantly over the recorded period, with a pronounced decline in the last 30 years. Individuals that established in open habitats at lower, hotter elevations and experienced a greater fire frequency appear to be more vulnerable to mortality than individuals growing within protected, rocky environments at higher, cooler locations with less frequent fires. Climate models predict increasing temperatures for our study area (and likely increases in wildfires). If these predictions are realised, further declines in the species can be expected. Urgent management interventions, including seedling out-planting in fire-protected high elevation sites, reducing fire frequency in higher elevation populations, and assisted migration, should be considered.