Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Stable-isotope records from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

The European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) includes a comprehensive pre-site survey on the inland ice plateau of Dronning Maud Land. This paper focuses on the investigation of the 18O content of shallow firn and ice cores. These cores were dated by profiles derived from dielectric-profiling and continuous flow analysis measurements. The individual records were stacked in order to obtain composite chronologies of 18O contents and accumulation rates with enhanced signal-to-noise variance ratios.These chronologies document variations in the last 200 and 1000 years.The 18O contents and accumulation rates decreased in the 19th century and increased during the 20th century.Using the empirical relationships between stable isotopes, accumulation rates and the 10m firn temperature, the variation of both parameters can be explained by the same temperature history.But other causes for these variations, such as the build-up of the snow cover, cannot be excluded. A marked feature of the 1000 year chronology occurs during the period AD 1180-1530 when the 18O contents remains below the long-term mean. Cross-correlation analyses between five cores from the Weddell Sea region and Dronning Maud Land show that 18O records can in some periods be positively correlated and in others negatively correlated, indicating a complex climatic history in time and space.