Oxygen isotope values from biogenic apatie (conodont elements and fish teeth) from the Lower Triassic Mianwali Formation (Salt Range, Pakistan)

Recovery from the end-Permian mass extinction is frequently described as delayed, with complex ecological communities typically not found in the fossil record until the Middle Triassic epoch. However, the taxonomic diversity of a number of marine groups, ranging from ammonoids to benthic foraminifera, peaked rapidly in the Early Triassic. These variations in biodiversity occur amidst pronounced excursions in the carbon isotope record, which are compatible with episodes of massive CO2 outgassing from the Siberian Large Igneous Province. Here we present a high-resolution Early Triassic temperature record based on the oxygen isotope composition of pristine apatite from fossil conodonts. Our reconstruction shows that the beginning of the Smithian substage of the Early Triassic was marked by a cooler climate, followed by an interval of warmth lasting until the Spathian substage boundary. Cooler conditions resumed in the Spathian. We find the greatest increases in taxonomic diversity during the cooler phases of the early Smithian and early Spathian. In contrast, a period of extreme warmth in the middle and late Smithian was associated with floral ecological change and high faunal taxonomic turnover in the ocean. We suggest that climate upheaval and carbon-cycle perturbations due to volcanic outgassing were important drivers of Early Triassic biotic recovery.

Freshwater runoff for Taylor Slough to Florida Bay for 1965 to 2000 for the FATHOM model

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

Relative abundances and microbial numbers of organisms from water sample station GeoB15704-2

Due to sampling difficulties, little is known about microbial communities associated with sinking marine snow in the twilight zone. A drifting sediment trap was equipped with a viscous cryogel and deployed to collect intact marine snow from depths of 100 and 400 m off Cape Blanc (Mauritania). Marine snow aggregates were fixed and washed in situ to prevent changes in microbial community composition and to enable subsequent analysis using catalyzed reporter deposition fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD-FISH). The attached microbial communities collected at 100 m were similar to the free-living community at the depth of the fluorescence maximum (20 m) but different from those at other depths (150, 400, 550, and 700 m). Therefore, the attached microbial community seemed to be "inherited" from that at the fluorescence maximum. The attached microbial community structure at 400 m differed from that of the attached community at 100 m and from that of any free-living community at the tested depths, except that collected near the sediment at 700 m. The differences between the particle-associated communities at 400 m and 100 m appeared to be due to internal changes in the attached microbial community rather than de novo colonization, detachment, or grazing during the sinking of marine snow. The new sampling method presented here will facilitate future investigations into the mechanisms that shape the bacterial community within sinking marine snow, leading to better understanding of the mechanisms which regulate biogeochemical cycling of settling organic matter.

Model experiment on optimal size of a fish stock with environmental uncertainties

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the 'convex-cost effect' and the 'gambling effect'. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.