Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

(Table A1) Annual biomass of plants and animals recorded on Bylot Island between 1993-2009

Determining the manner in which food webs will respond to environmental changes is difficult because the relative importance of top-down vs. bottom-up forces in controlling ecosystems is still debated. This is especially true in the Arctic tundra where, despite relatively simple food webs, it is still unclear which forces dominate in this ecosystem. Our primary goal was to assess the extent to which a tundra food web was dominated by plant-herbivore or predator--rey interactions. Based on a 17-year (1993-2009) study of terrestrial wildlife on Bylot Island, Nunavut, Canada, we developed trophic mass balance models to address this question. Snow Geese were the dominant herbivores in this ecosystem, followed by two sympatric lemming species (brown and collared lemmings). Arctic foxes, weasels, and several species of birds of prey were the dominant predators. Results of our trophic models encompassing 19 functional groups showed that <10% of the annual primary production was consumed by herbivores in most years despite the presence of a large Snow Goose colony, but that 20-100% of the annual herbivore production was consumed by predators. The impact of herbivores on vegetation has also weakened over time, probably due to an increase in primary production. The impact of predators was highest on lemmings, intermediate on passerines, and lowest on geese and shorebirds, but it varied with lemming abundance. Predation of collared lemmings exceeded production in most years and may explain why this species remained at low density. In contrast, the predation rate on brown lemmings varied with prey density and may have contributed to the high-amplitude, periodic fluctuations in the abundance of this species. Our analysis provided little evidence that herbivores are limited by primary production on Bylot Island. In contrast, we measured strong predator-prey interactions, which supports the hypothesis that this food web is primarily controlled by top-down forces. The presence of allochthonous resources subsidizing top predators and the absence of large herbivores may partly explain the predominant role of predation in this low-productivity ecosystem.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and net ecosystem calcification and production in a coral community Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii, 2011

Net ecosystem calcification rates (NEC) and net photosynthesis (NP) were determined from CO2 seawater parameters on the barrier coral reef of Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii. Autosamplers were deployed to collect samples on the barrier reef every 2 hours for six 48-hour deployments, two each in June 2008, August 2009, and January/February 2010. NEC on the Kaneohe Bay barrier reef increased throughout the day and decreased at night. Net calcification continued at low rates at night except for six time periods when net dissolution was measured. The barrier reef was generally net photosynthetic (positive NP) during the day and net respiring (negative NP) at night. NP controlled the diel cycles of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and aragonite saturation state resulting in high daytime aragonite saturation state levels when calcification rates were at their peak. However, the NEC and NP diel cycles can become decoupled for short periods of time (several hours) without affecting calcification rates. On a net daily basis, net ecosystem production (NEP) of the barrier reef was found to be sometimes net photosynthetic and sometimes net respiring and ranged from -378 to 80 mmol m-2 d-1 when calculated using simple box models. Daily NEC of the barrier reef was positive (net calcification) for all deployments and ranged from 174 to 331 mmol CaCO3 m-2 d-1. Daily NEC was strongly negatively correlated with average daily pCO2 (R2 = 0.76) which ranged from 431 to 622 µatm. Daily NEC of the Kaneohe Bay barrier reef is similar to or higher than daily NEC measured on other coral reefs even though aragonite saturation state levels (mean aragonite saturation state = 2.85) are some of the lowest measured in coral reef ecosystems. It appears that while calcification rate and ?arag are correlated within a single coral reef ecosystem, this relationship does not necessarily hold between different coral reef systems. It can be expected that ocean acidification will not affect coral reefs uniformly and that some may be more sensitive to increasing pCO2 levels than others.

The synergistic effects of ocean acidification and organic metabolism on calcium carbonate (CaCO3) dissolution in coral reef sediments

Ocean acidification (OA) is expected to reduce the net ecosystem calcification (NEC) rates and overall accretion of coral reef ecosystems. However, despite the fact that sediments are the most abundant form of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) in coral reef ecosystems and their dissolution may be more sensitive to OA than biogenic calcification, the impacts of OA induced sediment dissolution on coral reef NEC rates and CaCO3 accretion are poorly constrained. Carbon dioxide addition and light attenuation experiments were performed at Heron Island, Australia in an attempt to tease apart the influence of OA and organic metabolism (e.g. respiratory CO2 production) on CaCO3 dissolution. Overall, CaCO3 dissolution rates were an order of magnitude more sensitive to elevated CO2 and decreasing seawater aragonite saturation state (Omega Ar; 300-420% increase in dissolution per unit decrease in Omega Ar) than published reductions in biologically mediated calcification due to OA. Light attenuation experiments led to a 70% reduction in net primary production (NPP), which subsequently induced an increase in daytime (115%) and net diel (375%) CaCO3 dissolution rates. High CO2 and low light acted in synergy to drive a 575% increase in net diel dissolution rates. Importantly, disruptions to the balance of photosynthesis and respiration (P/R) had a significant effect on daytime CaCO3 dissolution, while average water column ?Ar was the main driver of nighttime dissolution rates. A simple model of platform-integrated dissolution rates was developed demonstrating that seasonal changes in photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) can have an important effect on platform integrated CaCO3 sediment dissolution rates. The considerable response of CaCO3 sediment dissolution to elevated CO2 means that much of the response of coral reef communities and ecosystems to OA could be due to increases in CaCO3 sediment and framework dissolution, and not decreases in biogenic calcification.

Age models of sediment cores from the Southern Ocean

Recent geochemical models invoke ocean alkalinity changes, particularly in the surface Southern Ocean, to explain glacial age pCO2 reduction. In such models, alkalinity increases in glacial periods are driven by reductions in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) supply, which lead to increases in deep-water nutrients and dissolution of carbonate sediments, and to increased alkalinity of Circumpolar Deep Water upwelling in the surface Southern Ocean. We use cores from the Southeast Indian Ridge and from the deep Cape Basin in the South Atlantic to show that carbonate dissolution was enhanced during glacial stages in areas now bathed by Circumpolar Deep Water. This suggests that deep Southern Ocean carbonate ion concentrations were lower in glacial stages than in interglacials, rather than higher as suggested by the polar alkalinity model [Broecker and Peng, 1989, doi:10.1029/GB001i001p00015]. Our observations show that changes in Southern Ocean CaCO3 preservation are coherent with changes in the relative flux of NADW, suggesting that Southern Ocean carbonate chemistry is closely linked to changes in deepwater circulation. The pattern of enhanced dissolution in glacials is consistent with a reduction in the supply of nutrient-depleted water (NADW) to the Southern Ocean and with an increase of nutrients in deep water masses. Carbonate mass accumulation rates on the Southeast Indian Ridge (3200-3800 m), and in relatively shallow cores (<3000 m) from the Kerguelen Plateau and the South Pacific were significantly reduced during glacial stages, by about 50%. The reduced carbonate mass accumulation rates and enhanced dissolution during glacials may be partly due to decreases in CaCO3:Corg flux ratios, acting as another mechanism which would raise the alkalinity of Southern Ocean surface waters. The polar alkalinity model assumes that the ratio of organic carbon to carbonate production on surface alkalinity is constant. Even if overall productivity in the Southern Ocean were held constant, a decrease in the CaCO3:Corg ratio would result in increased alkalinity and reduced pCO2 in Southern Ocean surface waters during glacials. This ecologically driven surface alkalinity change may enhance deepwater-mediated changes in alkalinity, and amplify rapid changes in pCO2.

Age determination, planktic foraminifera and stable istopes of sediment core MSM05/5_712-2

A sediment core from the West Spitsbergen continental margin was studied to reconstruct climate and paleoceanographic variability during the last ~9 ka in the eastern Fram Strait. Our multiproxy evidence suggests that the establishment of the modern oceanographic configuration in the eastern Fram Strait occurred stepwise, in response to the postglacial sea-level rise and the related onset of modern sea-ice production on the shallow Siberian shelves. The late Early and Mid Holocene interval (9 to 5 ka) was generally characterized by relatively unstable conditions. High abundance of the subpolar planktic foraminifer species Turborotalita quinqueloba implies strong intensity of Atlantic Water (AW) inflow with high productivity and/or high AW temperatures, resulting in a strong heat flux to the Arctic. A series of short-lived cooling events (8.2, 6.9. and 6.1 ka) occurred superimposed on the warm late Early and Mid Holocene conditions. Our proxy data imply that simultaneous to the complete postglacial flooding of Arctic shallow shelves and the initiation of modern sea-ice production, strong advance of polar waters initiated modern oceanographic conditions in the eastern Fram Strait at ~5.2 ka. The Late Holocene was marked by the dominance of the polar planktic foraminifer species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, a significant expansion of sea ice/icebergs, and strong stratification of the water column. Although planktic foraminiferal assemblages as well as sea surface and subsurface temperatures suggest a return of slightly strengthened advection of subsurface Atlantic Water after 3 ka, a relatively stable cold-water layer prevailed at the sea surface and the study site was probably located within the seasonally fluctuating marginal ice zone during the Neoglacial period.

Quaternary carbonate and stable isotope record of ODP Holes 133-817A and 133-818B

The Quaternary history of metastable CaCO3 input and preservation within Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) was examined by studying sediments from ODP Holes 818B (745 mbsl) and 817A (1015 mbsl) drilled in the Townsville Trough on the southern slope of the Queensland Plateau. These sites lie within the core of modern AAIW, and near the aragonite saturation depth (~1000 m). Thus, they are well positioned to monitor chemical changes that may have occurred within this watermass during the past 1.6 m.y. The percent of fine aragonite content, percent of fine magnesian calcite content, and percent of whole pteropods (>355 µm) were used to separate the fine aragonite input signal from the CaCO3 preservation signal. Stable d18O and d13C isotopic ratios were determined for the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer and, in Hole 818B, for the benthic foraminifer Cibicidoides spp. to establish the oxygen isotope stratigraphy and to study the relationship between intermediate and shallow water d13C of Sum CO2 and the relationship between benthic foraminiferal d13C and CaCO3 preservation within intermediate waters of the Townsville Trough. Data were converted from depth to age using oxygen isotope stratigraphy, nannostratigraphy, and foraminiferal biostratigraphy. Several long hiatuses and the absence of magnetostratigraphy did not permit time series analysis. The principal results of the CaCO3 preservation study include the following (1) a general increase in CaCO3 preservation between 0.9 and 1.6 Ma; (2) a CaCO3 dissolution maximum near 0.9 Ma, primarily expressed in the Hole 818B fine aragonite record; (3) an abrupt and permanent increase of fine aragonite content between 0.86 and 0.875 Ma in both Holes 818B and 817A probably reflecting a dramatic increase of fine carbonate sediment production on the Queensland Plateau; (4) an improvement in CaCO3 preservation near 0.87 Ma, which accompanied the increase of sediment input, indicated by the first appearance of whole pteropods in the deeper Hole 817A and a "spike" in the percent whole pteropods in Hole 818B; (5) a period of strong CaCO3 dissolution during the mid-Brunhes Chron from 0.36 to 0.41 Ma; and (6) a complex CaCO3 preservation pattern between 0.36 Ma and the present characterized by a general increase in CaCO3 preservation through time with good preservation during interglacial stages and poor preservation during glacial stages. The long-term aragonite preservation histories for Holes 818B and 817A appear to be similar in general shape, although different in detail, to CaCO3 preservation records from the deep Indian and central equatorial Pacific oceans as well as from intermediate water sites in the Bahamas and the Maldives. All of these areas have experienced CaCO3 dissolution at about 0.9 Ma and during the mid-Brunhes Chron. However, the late Quaternary (0 to 0.36 Ma) glacial to interglacial preservation pattern in Holes 818B and 817A is out of phase with CaCO3 preservation records for sediments deposited in Pacific deep and bottom waters. The sharp increase in bank production and export from the Queensland Plateau and the coincident improvement of CaCO3 preservation between 0.86 and 0.875 Ma may have been synchronous with the initiation of the Great Barrier Reef and roughly coincides with an increase in carbonate accumulation on the Bahama banks, in the western North Atlantic Ocean, and on Mururoa atoll, in the central South Pacific Ocean. The development of these reef systems during the middle Quaternary may be related to the transition in the frequency and amplitude of global sea level change from 41 k.y. low amplitude cycles prior to 0.9 Ma to 100 k.y. high amplitude cycles after 0.73 Ma. Carbon isotopic analyses show that benthic foraminiferal d13C values (Cibicidoides spp.) have been heavier than planktonic foraminiferal d13C values (G. sacculifer) throughout most of the last 0.54 m.y., which may indicate that 13C-enriched intermediate water (AAIW) occupied the Townsville Trough during much of the late Quaternary. Furthermore, both planktonic and benthic foraminiferal d13C values are often observed to be heaviest during interglacial to glacial transitions, and lightest during glacial to interglacial transitions. We suggest that this pattern is the result of changes in the preformed d13C of Sum CO2 of AAIW and may reflect changes in nutrient utilization by primary producers in Antarctic surface waters, changes in the d13C of upwelled Circumpolar Deep Water, or changes in the extent and/or temperature of equilibration between surface water and atmospheric CO2 within the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone (the source area for AAIW). Finally, the poor correlation between percent of whole pteropods (aragonite preservation) and d13C of Cibicidoides spp. may be the result of a decoupling of d13C from CO2 due to the numerous and complex variables that combine to produce the preformed d13C of AAIW.

Depths and ages of seismic sequence boundaries in ODP Leg 166 holes

High-resolution, multichannel seismic data collected across the Great Bahama Bank margin and the adjacent Straits of Florida indicate that the deposition of Neogene-Quaternary strata in this transect are controlled by two sedimentation mechanisms: (1) west-dipping layers of the platform margin, which are a product of sea-level-controlled, platform-derived downslope sedimentation; and (2) east- or north-dipping drift deposits in the basinal areas, which are deposited by ocean currents. These two sediment systems are active simultaneously and interfinger at the toe-of-slope. The prograding system consists of sigmoidal clinoforms that advanced the margin some 25 km into the Straits of Florida. The foresets of the clinoforms are approximately 600 m high with variable slope angles that steepen significantly in the Pleistocene section. The seismic facies of the prograding clinoforms on the slope is characterized by dominant, partly chaotic, cut-and-fill geometries caused by submarine canyons that are oriented downslope. In the basin axis, seismic geometries and facies document deposition from and by currents. Most impressive is an 800-m-thick drift deposit at the confluence of the Santaren Channel and the Straits of Florida. This "Santaren Drift" is slightly asymmetric, thinning to the north. The drift displays a highly coherent seismic facies characterized by a continuous succession of reflections, indicating very regular sedimentation. Leg 166 of the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) drilled a transect of five deep holes between 2 and 30 km from the modern platform margin and retrieved the sediments from both the slope and basin systems. The Neogene slope sediments consist of peri-platform oozes intercalated with turbidites, whereas the basinal drift deposits consist of more homogeneous, fine-grained carbonates that were deposited without major hiatuses by the Florida Current starting at approximately 12.4 Ma. Sea-level fluctuations, which controlled the carbonate production on Great Bahama Bank by repeated exposure of the platform top, controlled lithologic alternations and hiatuses in sedimentation across the transect. Both sedimentary systems are contained in 17 seismic sequences that were identified in the Neogene-Quaternary section. Seismic sequence boundaries were identified based on geometric unconformities beneath the Great Bahama Bank. All the sequence boundaries could be traced across the entire transect into the Straits of Florida. Biostratigraphic age determinations of seismic reflections indicate that the seismic reflections of sequence boundaries have chronostratigraphic significance across both depositional environments.

Oxygen concentration at time series station DYNAPROC

Continuous measurements between 0 and 200 m depth were performed every 2 h over two separate periods of four days at a station in the open northwestern Mediterranean Sea (Dyfamed Station) during the Dynaproc cruise in May 1995. Estimates of the daily variations in profiles of temperature, partial pressure of CO2, oxygen, chlorophyll a and nutrients were obtained. The distributions of the various physical and chemical properties were clearly different during the two time series, which were separated by a period of 11 days during which a wind event occurred. The mean daily utilization or production due to biological processes of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), nitrate+nitrite and oxygen were calculated along isopycnals using a vertical diffusion model. Between the surface and about 20 m depth, DIC was consumed and O2 released during the two time series while the nitrate+nitrite concentrations as well as supplies were zero. After the wind event, the O2 : C : N ratios of consumption (or production) were, on average, near the Redfield ratios, but during the first time series, the C : N utilization ratio between 20 and 35 m was two to three times that of Redfield stoichiometry and the oxygen release was low. The integrated net community production (NCP) in terms of carbon was equivalent during the two time series, whereas the chlorophyll a biomass was twice as high, on average, during the first time series but did decrease. These results imply that the production systems were different during the two periods. The first time series corresponds to a period at the end of production, due to the nutrient depletion in the euphotic layer. The formation of degradation products of the living material in dissolved organic form is probably important as indicated by the high C : N utilization ratios. The second time series corresponds to a reactivation of the primary production due to the upward shift of nutrients after the wind event.

Environmental analyses of cyclic Middle Eocene sediments and palynomorph records of ODP Hole 189-1172A

The influence of orbital precession on early Paleogene climate and ocean circulation patterns in the southeast Pacific region is investigated by combining environmental analyses of cyclic Middle Eocene sediments and palynomorph records recovered from ODP Hole 1172A on the East Tasman Plateau with climate model simulations. Integration of results indicates that in the marine realm, direct effects of precessional forcing are not pronounced, although increased precipitation/runoff could have enhanced dinoflagellate cyst production. On the southeast Australian continent, the most pronounced effects of precessional forcing were fluctuations in summer precipitation and temperature on the Antarctic Margin. These fluctuations resulted in vegetational changes, most notably in the distribution of Nothofagus (subgenus Brassospora). The climate model results suggest significant fluctuations in sea ice in the Ross Sea, notably during Austral summers. This is consistent with the influx of Antarctic heterotrophic dinoflagellates in the early part of the studied record. The data demonstrate a strong precessionally driven climate variability and thus support the concept that precessional forcing could have played a role in early Antarctic glaciation via changes in runoff and/or precipitation.