112 resultados para Conjectural Variations Model


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Time series analyses of atmospheric and oceanic variables in a late Pleistocene record from the northwest Pacific show the complex relationship of the response of various segments of the climate system to changes in the earth's orbit. Most variance spectra of time series from this subarctic record contain frequency peaks with periods corresponding to at least one of the major orbital components of eccentricity, obliquity, or precession. Although the radiolarian faunal (water mass) assemblages have prominent spectral peaks with 41,000-year periods which are coherent with obliquity at this frequency, only the Transitional faunal assemblage contains variance focused at a frequency corresponding to the 100,000-year period of eccentricity. Three of these faunal time series also show variance concentrated at a frequency with a 20,000-year period. These three time series are not coherent at a 20,000-year frequency with either of the dominant spectral peaks of precession. They are coherent, however, with variations in the second harmonic of the obliquity cycle. Changes in obliquity apparently affect siliceous faunal abundances in the northwest Pacific region of this high-latitude site more than variations in eccentricity or precession. Maxima in the time series of quartz abundance occur during low values of eccentricity and high glacial ice volume. Because atmospheric winds serve as the major source of supply of quartz to the sediments at this site, these high quartz values reflect increased aridity at the source region. Except for short periods during interglacials, the characteristics of the surface waters in this region of the subarctic Pacific during much of the last 460,000 years were similar to those which exist today in the Sea of Okhotsk. The spectrum of winter sea surface temperature estimates, derived from siliceous microfaunal abundances, contains dominant frequency peaks at periods of 100,000, 41,000, and 23,000 years which are coherent with eccentricity, obliquity, and precession, respectively. Based upon the relationship of the Subarctic Front with the dominance of specific faunal asemblages, the front was positioned south of its present-day location throughout much of the late Pleistocene.

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The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate. The possible influence of solar forcing on SWW variability during the Holocene is addressed. Solar sensitivity experiments with a comprehensive global climate model (CCSM3) are carried out to study the response of SWW to solar variability. In addition, It is shown that a high-resolution iron record from the Chilean continental slope (41° S), which is interpreted to reflect changes in the position of the SWW, is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity during the past 3000 years. Taken together, the proxy and model results suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the annual mean SWW.

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Late Pliocene changes in the advection of Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) derivates were reconstructed at northeast Atlantic DSDP/ODP sites 548 and 982 and compared to records of WMDW at West Mediterranean Site 978. Neodymium isotope (epsilon-Nd) values more positive than ~10.5/~ 11 reflect diluted MOW derivates that spread almost continuously into the northeast Atlantic from 3.7 to 2.55 Ma, reaching Rockall Plateau Site 982 from 3.63 to 2.75 Ma. From 3.4 to 3.3 Ma average MOW temperature and salinity increased by 2°-4 °C and ~1 psu both at proximal Site 548 and distal Site 982. The rise implies a rise in flow strength, coeval with a long-term rise in both west Mediterranean Sea surface salinity by almost 2 psu and average bottom water salinity (BWS) by ~1 psu, despite inherent uncertainties in BWS estimates. The changes were linked with major Mediterranean aridification and a drop in African monsoon humidity. In contrast to model expectations, the rise in MOW salt discharge after 3.4 Ma did not translate into improved ventilation of North Atlantic Deep Water, since it possibly was too small to significantly influence Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Right after ~2.95 Ma, with the onset of major Northern Hemisphere Glaciation, long-term average bottom water temperature (BWT) and BWS at Site 548 dropped abruptly by ~5 °C and ~1-2 psu, in contrast to more distal Site 982, where BWT and BWS continued to oscillate at estimates of ~2 °C and 1.5-2.5 psu higher than today until ~2.6 Ma. We relate the small-scale changes both to a reduced MOW flow and to enhanced dilution by warm waters of a strengthened North Atlantic Current temporarily replacing MOW derivates at Rockall Plateau.

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The influence of atmospheric circulation patterns on sea salt aerosol deposition in the study area of the new EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) deep drilling in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, has been investigated. Comparison of ice core records with reanalysis data showed that recent sea salt concentrations are strongly influenced by the occurrence of a blocking high pressure ridge over the eastern and enhanced storm activity over the western Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean (SO) leading to marine intrusions, thus enhanced sea salt export, into DML. These variations occur with periods of 4-5 and 12-14 yr, the prior being associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). The prevalence of these periodicities in a 2000 year ice core record from DML shows for the first time that the ACW is a prevalent feature of SO atmosphere dynamics over the last two millennia.

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