78 resultados para sums of squares
Resumo:
Based on the quantitative analysis of diatom assemblages preserved in 274 surface sediment samples recovered in the Pacific, Atlantic and western Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean we have defined a new reference database for quantitative estimation of late-middle Pleistocene Antarctic sea ice fields using the transfer function technique. The Detrended Canonical Analysis (DCA) of the diatom data set points to a unimodal distribution of the diatom assemblages. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) indicates that winter sea ice (WSI) but also summer sea surface temperature (SSST) represent the most prominent environmental variables that control the spatial species distribution. To test the applicability of transfer functions for sea ice reconstruction in terms of concentration and occurrence probability we applied four different methods, the Imbrie and Kipp Method (IKM), the Modern Analog Technique (MAT), Weighted Averaging (WA), and Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares (WAPLS), using logarithm-transformed diatom data and satellite-derived (1981-2010) sea ice data as a reference. The best performance for IKM results was obtained using a subset of 172 samples with 28 diatom taxa/taxa groups, quadratic regression and a three-factor model (IKM-D172/28/3q) resulting in root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) of 7.27% and 11.4% for WSI and summer sea ice (SSI) concentration, respectively. MAT estimates were calculated with different numbers of analogs (4, 6) using a 274-sample/28-taxa reference data set (MAT-D274/28/4an, -6an) resulting in RMSEP's ranging from 5.52% (4an) to 5.91% (6an) for WSI as well as 8.93% (4an) to 9.05% (6an) for SSI. WA and WAPLS performed less well with the D274 data set, compared to MAT, achieving WSI concentration RMSEP's of 9.91% with WA and 11.29% with WAPLS, recommending the use of IKM and MAT. The application of IKM and MAT to surface sediment data revealed strong relations to the satellite-derived winter and summer sea ice field. Sea ice reconstructions performed on an Atlantic- and a Pacific Southern Ocean sediment core, both documenting sea ice variability over the past 150,000 years (MIS 1 - MIS 6), resulted in similar glacial/interglacial trends of IKM and MAT-based sea-ice estimates. On the average, however, IKM estimates display smaller WSI and slightly higher SSI concentration and probability at lower variability in comparison with MAT. This pattern is a result of different estimation techniques with integration of WSI and SSI signals in one single factor assemblage by applying IKM and selecting specific single samples, thus keeping close to the original diatom database and included variability, by MAT. In contrast to the estimation of WSI, reconstructions of past SSI variability remains weaker. Combined with diatom-based estimates, the abundance and flux pattern of biogenic opal represents an additional indication for the WSI and SSI extent.
Resumo:
A number of studies have shown that Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) can be applied to quantitatively assess lacustrine sediment constituents. In this study, we developed calibration models based on FTIR for the quantitative determination of biogenic silica (BSi; n = 420; gradient: 0.9-56.5%), total organic carbon (TOC; n = 309; gradient: 0-2.9%), and total inorganic carbon (TIC; n= 152; gradient: 0-0.4%) in a 318 m-long sediment record with a basal age of 3.6 million years from Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic. The developed partial least squares (PLS) regression models yield high cross-validated (CV) R2CV = 0.86-0.91 and low root mean square error of cross-validation (RMSECV) (3.1-7.0% of the gradient for the different properties). By applying these models to 6771 samples from the entire sediment record, we obtained detailed insight into bioproductivity variations in Lake El'gygytgyn throughout the middle to late Pliocene and Quaternary. High accumulation rates of BSi indicate a productivity maximum during the middle Pliocene (3.6-3.3 Ma), followed by gradually decreasing rates during the late Pliocene and Quaternary. The average BSi accumulation during the middle Pliocene was ~3 times higher than maximum accumulation rates during the past 1.5 million years. The indicated progressive deterioration of environmental and climatic conditions in the Siberian Arctic starting at ca. 3.3 Ma is consistent with the first occurrence of glacial periods and the finally complete establishment of glacial-interglacial cycles during the Quaternary.
Resumo:
Megabenthos plays a major role in the overall energy flow on Arctic shelves, but information on megabenthic secondary production on large spatial scales is scarce. Here, we estimated for the first time megabenthic secondary production for the entire Barents Sea shelf by applying a species-based empirical model to an extensive dataset from the joint Norwegian? Russian ecosystem survey. Spatial patterns and relationships were analyzed within a GIS. The environmental drivers behind the observed production pattern were identified by applying an ordinary least squares regression model. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) was used to examine the varying relationship of secondary production and the environment on a shelfwide scale. Significantly higher megabenthic secondary production was found in the northeastern, seasonally ice-covered regions of the Barents Sea than in the permanently ice-free southwest. The environmental parameters that significantly relate to the observed pattern are bottom temperature and salinity, sea ice cover, new primary production, trawling pressure, and bottom current speed. The GWR proved to be a versatile tool for analyzing the regionally varying relationships of benthic secondary production and its environmental drivers (R² = 0.73). The observed pattern indicates tight pelagic? benthic coupling in the realm of the productive marginal ice zone. Ongoing decrease of winter sea ice extent and the associated poleward movement of the seasonal ice edge point towards a distinct decline of benthic secondary production in the northeastern Barents Sea in the future.