Sampling sites, sampled birds and plants of young larch plantations in Tokachi district, eastern Hokkaido, northern Japan, 2011

Models and data used to describe species-area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species-area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species-area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density-area relationships and occurrence probability-area relationships can alter the form of species-area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a variety of study designs and allows the inclusion of additional environmental covariates.

Sand fraction, organic carbon and nitrogen data, and calculated marine and terrestrial organic carbon fractions of surface sediments in the western Barents Sea

There is generally a lack of knowledge on how marine organic carbon accumulation is linked to vertical export and primary productivity patterns. In this study, a multi-proxy geochemical and organic-sedimentological approach is coupled with organic facies modelling focusing on regional calculations of carbon cycling and carbon burial on the western Barents Shelf between northern Scandinavia and Svalbard. OF-Mod 3D, an organic facies modelling software tool, is used to reconstruct the marine and terrestrial organic carbon fractions and to make inferences about marine primary productivity in this region. The model is calibrated with an extensive sample dataset and reproduces the present-day regional distribution of the organic carbon fractions well. Based on this new organic facies model, we present regional carbon mass accumulation rate calculations for the western Barents Sea. The calibration dataset includes location and water depth, sand fraction, organic carbon and nitrogen data and calculated marine and terrestrial organic carbon fractions.