Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Calcareous nannofossil stratigraphy and key biohorizons of ODP Leg 173 sites

Six sites were drilled on the southern Iberia Abyssal Plain during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 173. Three holes (1067A, 1068A, and 1069A) recovered Eocene sediments consisting of thinly bedded turbidite deposits with interbedded hemipelagic sediments (Bouma sequence Te) deposited near the calcite compensation depth. The hemipelagic sediments are barren of nannofossils, necessitating the use of the turbidite deposits to erect an Eocene biostratigraphy for these holes. Moderately preserved, diverse assemblages of nannofossils were recovered from silty clays (Bouma sequence Td) and poorly preserved, less diverse assemblages were recovered from sandy/silty clays (Bouma sequence Tc). Hole 1067A has a continuous record of sedimentation (Subzones CP9a-CP14a) and Holes 1068A and 1069A have similar continuous records (Subzones CP9a-CP12a), although all holes contain barren intervals. Holes 1067A, 1068A, 1069A, 900A (ODP Leg 149), and 398D (Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 47B) display a similar increase in mass accumulation rates in the lowermost middle Eocene. A reliable Eocene biostratigraphy has been erected using nannofossil data from turbidite sequences, allowing for correlation between Iberia Abyssal Plain sites.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.