172 resultados para SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS
Resumo:
Aim Palaeoecological reconstructions document past vegetation change with estimates of rapid rates of changing species distribution limits that are often not matched by model simulations of climate-driven vegetation dynamics. Genetic surveys of extant plant populations have yielded new insight into continental vegetation histories, challenging traditional interpretations that had been based on pollen data. Our aim is to examine an updated continental pollen data set from Europe in the light of the new ideas about vegetation dynamics emerging from genetic research and vegetation modelling studies. Location Europe Methods: We use pollen data from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to construct interpolated maps of pollen percentages documenting change in distribution and abundance of major plant genera and the grass family in Europe over the last 15,000 years. Results: Our analyses confirm high rates of postglacial spread with at least 1000 metres per year for Corylus, Ulmus and Alnus and average rates of 400 metres per year for Tilia, Quercus, Fagus and Carpinus. The late Holocene expansions of Picea and Fagus populations in many European regions cannot be explained by migrational lag. Both taxa shift their population centres towards the Atlantic coast suggesting that climate may have played a role in the timing of their expansions. The slowest rates of spread were reconstructed for Abies. Main conclusions: The calculated rates of postglacial plant spread are higher in Europe than those from North America, which may be due to more rapid shifts in climate mediated by the Gulf Stream and westerly winds. Late Holocene anthropogenic land use practices in Europe had major effects on individual taxa, which in combination with climate change contributed to shifts in areas of abundance and dominance. The high rates of spread calculated from the European pollen data are consistent with the common tree species rapidly tracking early Holocene climate change and contribute to the debate on the consequences of global warming for plant distributions.
Resumo:
The Indian monsoon system is an important climate feature of the northern Indian Ocean. Small variations of the wind and precipitation patterns have fundamental influence on the societal, agricultural, and economic development of India and its neighboring countries. To understand current trends, sensitivity to forcing, or natural variation, records beyond the instrumental period are needed. However, high-resolution archives of past winter monsoon variability are scarce. One potential archive of such records are marine sediments deposited on the continental slope in the NE Arabian Sea, an area where present-day conditions are dominated by the winter monsoon. In this region, winter monsoon conditions lead to distinctive changes in surface water properties, affecting marine plankton communities that are deposited in the sediment. Using planktic foraminifera as a sensitive and well-preserved plankton group, we first characterize the response of their species distribution on environmental gradients from a dataset of surface sediment samples in the tropical and sub-tropical Indian Ocean. Transfer functions for quantitative paleoenvironmental reconstructions were applied to a decadal-scale record of assemblage counts from the Pakistan Margin spanning the last 2000?years. The reconstructed temperature record reveals an intensification of winter monsoon intensity near the year 100 CE. Prior to this transition, winter temperatures were >1.5°C warmer than today. Conditions similar to the present seem to have established after 450 CE, interrupted by a singular event near 950 CE with warmer temperatures and accordingly weak winter monsoon. Frequency analysis revealed significant 75-, 40-, and 37-year cycles, which are known from decadal- to centennial-scale resolution records of Indian summer monsoon variability and interpreted as solar irradiance forcing. Our first independent record of Indian winter monsoon activity confirms that winter and summer monsoons were modulated on the same frequency bands and thus indicates that both monsoon systems are likely controlled by the same driving force.
Resumo:
In contrast to the wide range of studies carried out in temperate and high-latitude oceanic regions, only a few studies have focused on recent and Holocene organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst assemblages from the tropics. This information is, however, essential for fully understanding the ability of species to adapt to different oceanographic regimes, and ultimately their potential application to local and regional palaeoenvironmental and palaeoceanographic reconstructions. Surface sediment samples of the western equatorial Atlantic Ocean north of Brazil, an area greatly influenced by Amazon River discharge waters, were therefore analysed in detail for their organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst content. A diverse association of 43 taxa was identified, and large differences in cyst distribution were observed. The cyst thanatocoenosis in bottom sediments reflects the seasonal advection of Amazon River discharge water through the Guyana Current and the North Equatorial Countercurrent well into the North Atlantic. To establish potential links between cyst distribution and the environmental conditions of the upper water column, distribution patterns were compared with mean temperature, salinity, density and stratification gradients within the upper water column (0-100 m) over different times of the year, using correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis. The analyses show that differences in these parameters only play a subordinate role in determining species distribution. Instead, nutrient availability, or related factors, dominates the distribution pattern. The only possible indicators of slightly reduced salinities are Trinovantedinium applanatum and Lingulodinium machaerophorum. Four assemblage groups of cyst taxa with similar environmental affinities related to specific water masses/currents can be distinguished and have potential for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction.
Resumo:
Ostracodes were studied from deep Arctic Ocean cores obtained during the Arctic 91 expedition of the Polarstern to the Nansen, Amundsen and Makarov Basins, the Lomonosov Ridge, Morris Jesup Rise and Yermak Plateau, in order to investigate their distribution in Arctic Ocean deep water (AODW) and apply these data to paleoceanographic reconstruction of bottom water masses during the Quaternary. Analyses of coretop assemblages from Arctic 91 boxcores indicate the following: ostracodes are common at all depths between 1000 and 4500 m, and species distribution is strongly influenced by water mass characteristics and bathymetry; quantitative analyses comparing Eurasian and Canada Basin assemblages indicate that distinct assemblages inhabit regions east and west of the Lomonosov Ridge, a barrier especially important to species living in lower AODW; deep Eurasian Basin assemblages are more similar to those living in Greenland Sea deep water (GSDW) than those in Canada Basin deep water; two upper AODW assemblages were recognized throughout the Arctic Ocean, one living between 1000 and 1500 m, and the other, having high species diversity, at 1500-3000 m. Downcore quantitative analyses of species' abundances and the squared chord distance coefficient of similarity reveals a distinct series of abundance peaks in key indicator taxa interpreted to signify the following late Quaternary deep water history of the Eurasian Basin. During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a GSDW/AODW assemblage, characteristic of cold, well oxygenated deep water > 3000 m today, inhabited the Lomonosov Ridge to depths as shallow as 1000 m, perhaps indicating the influence of GSDW at mid-depths in the central Arctic Ocean. During Termination 1, a period of high organic productivity associated with a strong inflowing warm North Atlantic layer occurred. During the mid-Holocene, several key faunal events indicate a period of warming and/or enhanced flow between the Canada and Eurasian Basins. A long-term record of ostracode assemblages from kastenlot core PS2200-5 (1073 m water depth) from the Morris Jesup Rise indicates a quasi-cyclic pattern of water mass changes during the last 300 kyr. Interglacial ostracode assemblages corresponding to oxygen isotope stages 1, 5, and 7 indicate rapid changes in dissolved oxygen and productivity during glacial-interglacial transitions.
Resumo:
Changing patterns of sea-ice distribution and extent have measurable effects on polar marine systems. Beyond the obvious impacts of key-habitat loss, it is unclear how such changes will influence ice-associated marine mammals in part because of the logistical difficulties of studying foraging behaviour or other aspects of the ecology of large, mobile animals at sea during the polar winter. This study investigated the diet of pregnant bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) during three spring breeding periods (2005, 2006 and 2007) with markedly contrasting ice conditions in Svalbard using stable isotopes (d13C and d15N) measured in whiskers collected from their newborn pups. The d15N values in the whiskers of individual seals ranged from 11.95 to 17.45 per mil, spanning almost 2 full trophic levels. Some seals were clearly dietary specialists, despite the species being characterised overall as a generalist predator. This may buffer bearded seal populations from the changes in prey distributions lower in the marine food web which seems to accompany continued changes in temperature and ice cover. Comparisons with isotopic signatures of known prey, suggested that benthic gastropods and decapods were the most common prey. Bayesian isotopic mixing models indicated that diet varied considerably among years. In the year with most fast-ice (2005), the seals had the greatest proportion of pelagic fish and lowest benthic invertebrate content, and during the year with the least ice (2006), the seals ate more benthic invertebrates and less pelagic fish. This suggests that the seals fed further offshore in years with greater ice cover, but moved in to the fjords when ice-cover was minimal, giving them access to different types of prey. Long-term trends of sea ice decline, earlier ice melt, and increased water temperatures in the Arctic are likely to have ecosystem-wide effects, including impacts on the forage bases of pagophilic seals.
Resumo:
Cretaceous sediments were recovered at all four sites (Sites 463-466) of the central North Pacific drilled during Leg 62 of the Deep Sea Drilling Project. One of the objectives was to get more information about the development of ocean plankton communities and early evolution of planktonic groups of the Mesozoic. In this article, the Cretaceous calcareous nannofossils from two areas of the central North Pacific (Mid-Pacific Mountains and Hess Rise) are listed and discussed. (The Cenozoic calcareous nannofossils are discussed by R. Schmidt 1981). Coring was continuous at all sites. Mesozoic calcareous nannoplankton assemblages range on the Mid-pacific Mountains from Barremian to Early Maastrichtian, and on Hess Rise from Albian to Late Maastrichtian. (No calcareous nannofossils older than Barremian or Albian respectively were found).
Resumo:
This paper reports the concentrations and within-class distributions of long-chain alkenones and alkyl alkenoates in the surface waters (0-50 m) of the eastern North Atlantic, and correlates their abundance and distribution with those of source organisms and with water temperature and other environmental variables. We collected these samples of >0.8 µm particulate material from the euphotic zone along the JGOFS 20°W longitude transect, from 61°N to 24°N, during seven cruises of the UK-JGOFS Biogeochemical Ocean Flux Study (BOFS) in 1989-1991; the biogeographical range of our 53 samples extends from the cold (<10°C), nutrient-rich and highly productive subarctic waters of the Iceland Basin to the warm (>25°C) oligotrophic subtropical waters off Africa. Surface water concentrations of total alkenone and alkenoates ranged from <50 ng/l in oligotrophic waters below 40°N to 2000-4500 ng/l in high latitude E. huxleyi blooms, and were well correlated with E. huxleyi cell densities, supporting the assumption that E. huxleyi is the predominant source of these compounds in the present day North Atlantic. The within-class distribution of the C37 and C38 alkenones and C36 alkenoates varied strongly as a function of temperature, and was largely unaffected by nutrient concentration, bloom status and other surface water properties. The biosynthetic response of the source organisms to growth temperature differed between the cold (<16°C) waters above 47°N and the warmer waters to the south. In cold (<16°C) waters above 47°N, the relative amounts of alkenoates and C38 alkenones synthesized was a strong function of growth temperature, while the unsaturation ratio of the alkenones (C37 and C38) was uncorrelated with temperature. Conversely, in warm (>16°C) waters below 47°N, the relative proportions of alkenoates and alkenones synthesized remained constant with increasing temperature while the unsaturation ratios of the C37 and C38 methyl alkenones (Uk37 and Uk38Me, respectively) increased linearly. The fitted regressions of Uk37 and Uk38Me versus temperature for waters >16°C were both highly significant (r**2 > 0.96) and had identical slopes (0.057) that were 50% higher than the slope (0.034) of the temperature calibration of Uk37 reported by Prahl and Wakeham (1987; doi:10.1038/330367a0) over the same temperature range. These observations suggest either a physiological adjustment in biochemical response to growth temperature above a 16-17°C threshold and/or variation between different E. huxleyi strains and/or related species inhabiting the cold and warm water regions of the eastern North Atlantic. Using our North Atlantic data set, we have produced multivariate temperature calibrations incorporating all major features of the alkenone and alkenoate data set. Predicted temperatures using multivariate calibrations are largely unbiased, with a standard error of approximately ±1°C over the entire data range. In contrast, simpler calibration models cannot adequately incorporate regional diversity and nonlinear trends with temperature. Our results indicate that calibrations based upon single variables, such as Uk37, can be strongly biased by unknown systematic errors arising from natural variability in the biosynthetic response of the source organisms to growth temperature. Multivariate temperature calibration can be expected to give more precise estimates of Integrated Production Temperatures (IPT) in the sedimentary record over a wider range of paleoenvironmental conditions, when derived using a calibration data set incorporating a similar range of natural variability in biosynthetic response.