Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Geochemistry of sediments from the upwelling off Morocco

The high-productive upwelling area off Morocco is part of one of the four major trade-wind driven continental margin upwelling zones in the world oceans. While coastal upwelling occurs mostly on the shelf, biogenic particles derived from upwelling are deposited mostly at the upper continental slope. Nutrient-rich coastal water is transported within the Cape Ghir filament region at 30°N up to several hundreds of kilometers offshore. Both upwelling intensity and filament activity are dependent on the strength of the summer Trades. This study is aimed to reconstruct changes in trade wind intensity over the last 250,000 years by the analysis of the productivity signal contained in the sedimentary biogenic particles of the continental slope and beneath the Cape Ghir filament. Detailed geochemical and geophysical analyses (TOC, carbonate, C/N, delta13Corg, delta15N, delta13C of benthic foraminifera, delta18O of benthic and planktic foraminifera, magnetic susceptibility) have been carried out at two sites on the upper continental slope and one site located further offshore influenced by the Cape Ghir filament. A second offshore site south of the filament was analyzed (TOC, magnetic susceptibility) to distinguish the productivity signal related to the filament signal from the general offshore variability. Higher productivity during glacial times was observed at all four sites. However, the variability of productivity during glacial times was remarkably different at the filament-influenced site compared to the upwelling-influenced continental slope sites. In addition to climate-related changes in upwelling intensity, zonal shifts of the upwelling area due to sea-level changes have impacted the sedimentary productivity record, especially at the continental slope sites. By comparison with other proxies related to the strength and direction of the prevailing winds (Si/Al ratio as grain-size indicator, pollen) the productivity record at the filament-influenced site reflects mainly changes in trade-wind intensity. Our reconstruction reveals that especially during glacial times trade-wind intensity was increased and showed a strong variability with frequencies related to precession.