107 resultados para Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE)
Resumo:
We estimate tropical Atlantic upper ocean temperatures using oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca ratios in well-preserved planktonic foraminifera extracted from Albian through Santonian black shales recovered during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 207 (North Atlantic Demerara Rise). On the basis of a range of plausible assumptions regarding seawater composition at the time the data support temperatures between 33° and 42°C. In our low-resolution data set spanning ~84-100 Ma a local temperature maximum occurs in the late Turonian, and a possible minimum occurs in the mid to early late Cenomanian. The relation between single species foraminiferal d18O and Mg/Ca suggests that the ratio of magnesium to calcium in the Turonian-Coniacian ocean may have been lower than in the Albian-Cenomanian ocean, perhaps coincident with an ocean 87Sr/86Sr minimum. The carbon isotopic compositions of distinct marine algal biomarkers were measured in the same sediment samples. The d13C values of phytane, combined with foraminiferal d13C and inferred temperatures, were used to estimate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations through this interval. Estimates of atmospheric CO2 concentrations range between 600 and 2400 ppmv. Within the uncertainty in the various proxies, there is only a weak overall correspondence between higher (lower) tropical temperatures and more (less) atmospheric CO2. The GENESIS climate model underpredicts tropical Atlantic temperatures inferred from ODP Leg 207 foraminiferal d18O and Mg/Ca when we specify approximate CO2 concentrations estimated from the biomarker isotopes in the same samples. Possible errors in the temperature and CO2 estimates and possible deficiencies in the model are discussed. The potential for and effects of substantially higher atmospheric methane during Cretaceous anoxic events, perhaps derived from high fluxes from the oxygen minimum zone, are considered in light of recent work that shows a quadratic relation between increased methane flux and atmospheric CH4 concentrations. With 50 ppm CH4, GENESIS sea surface temperatures approximate the minimum upper ocean temperatures inferred from proxy data when CO2 concentrations specified to the model are near those inferred using the phytane d13C proxy. However, atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 3500 ppm or more are still required in the model in order to reproduce inferred maximum temperatures.
Resumo:
Uncertainty information for global leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global modeling studies but usually difficult to systematically obtain at a global scale. Here, we present a new method that cross-validates existing global LAI products and produces consistent uncertainty information. The method is based on a triple collocation error model (TCEM) that assumes errors among LAI products are not correlated. Global monthly absolute and relative uncertainties, in 0.05° spatial resolutions, were generated for MODIS, CYCLOPES, and GLOBCARBON LAI products, with reasonable agreement in terms of spatial patterns and biome types. CYCLOPES shows the lowest absolute and relative uncertainties, followed by GLOBCARBON and MODIS. Grasses, crops, shrubs, and savannas usually have lower uncertainties than forests in association with the relatively larger forest LAI. With their densely vegetated canopies, tropical regions exhibit the highest absolute uncertainties but the lowest relative uncertainties, the latter of which tend to increase with higher latitudes. The estimated uncertainties of CYCLOPES generally meet the quality requirements (± 0.5) proposed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), whereas for MODIS and GLOBCARBON only non-forest biome types have met the requirement. Nevertheless, none of the products seems to be within a relative uncertainty requirements of 20%. Further independent validation and comparative studies are expected to provide a fair assessment of uncertainties derived from TCEM. Overall, the proposed TCEM is straightforward and could be automated for the systematic processing of real time remote sensing observations to provide theoretical uncertainty information for a wider range of land products.
Resumo:
Global change in land water storage and its effect on sea level is estimated over a 7-year time span (August 2002 to July 2009) using space gravimetry data from GRACE. The 33 World largest river basins are considered. We focus on the year-to-year variability and construct a total land water storage time series that we further express in equivalent sea level time series. The short-term trend in total water storage adjusted over this 7-year time span is positive and amounts to 80.6 ± 15.7 km**3/yr (net water storage excess). Most of the positive contribution arises from the Amazon and Siberian basins (Lena and Yenisei), followed by the Zambezi, Orinoco and Ob basins. The largest negative contributions (water deficit) come from the Mississippi, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Aral, Euphrates, Indus and Parana. Expressed in terms of equivalent sea level, total water volume change over 2002-2009 leads to a small negative contribution to sea level of -0.22 ± 0.05 mm/yr. The time series for each basin clearly show that year-to-year variability dominates so that the value estimated in this study cannot be considered as representative of a long-term trend. We also compare the interannual variability of total land water storage (removing the mean trend over the studied time span) with interannual variability in sea level (corrected for thermal expansion). A correlation of ~0.6 is found. Phasing, in particular, is correct. Thus, at least part of the interannual variability of the global mean sea level can be attributed to land water storage fluctuations.
Resumo:
To explore cause and consequences of past climate change, very accurate age models such as those provided by the astronomical timescale (ATS) are needed. Beyond 40 million years the accuracy of the ATS critically depends on the correctness of orbital models and radioisotopic dating techniques. Discrepancies in the age dating of sedimentary successions and the lack of suitable records spanning the middle Eocene have prevented development of a continuous astronomically calibrated geological timescale for the entire Cenozoic Era. We now solve this problem by constructing an independent astrochronological stratigraphy based on Earth's stable 405 kyr eccentricity cycle between 41 and 48 million years ago (Ma) with new data from deep-sea sedimentary sequences in the South Atlantic Ocean. This new link completes the Paleogene astronomical timescale and confirms the intercalibration of radioisotopic and astronomical dating methods back through the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 55.930 Ma) and the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (66.022 Ma). Coupling of the Paleogene 405 kyr cyclostratigraphic frameworks across the middle Eocene further paves the way for extending the ATS into the Mesozoic.
Resumo:
A quick new method is described for the quantification of absolute nannofossil proportions in deep-sea sediments. This method (SMS) is the combination of Spiking a sample with Microbeads and Spraying it on a cover slide. It is suitable for scanning electron microscope (SEM) analyses and for light microscope (LM) analyses. Repeated preparation and counting of the same sample (30 times) revealed a standard deviation of 10.5%. The application of tracer microbeads with different diameters and densities revealed no statistically significant differences between counts. The SMS-method yielded coccolith numbers that are statistically not significantly different from values obtained from the filtration-method. However, coccolith counts obtained by the random settling method are three times higher than the values obtained by the SMS- and the filtration-method.
Resumo:
The identification in various proxy records of periods of rapid (decadal scale) climate change over recent millennia, together with the possibility that feedback mechanisms may amplify climate system responses to increasing atmospheric CO2, highlights the importance of a detailed understanding, at high spatial and temporal resolutions, of forcings and feedbacks within the system. Such an understanding has hitherto been limited because the temperate marine environment has lacked an absolute timescale of the kind provided by tree-rings for the terrestrial environment and by corals for the tropical marine environment. Here we present the first annually resolved, multi-centennial (489-year), absolutely dated, shell-based marine master chronology. The chronology has been constructed by detrending and averaging annual growth increment widths in the shells of multiple specimens of the very long-lived bivalve mollusc Arctica islandica, collected from sites to the south and west of the Isle of Man in the Irish Sea. The strength of the common environmental signal expressed in the chronology is fully comparable with equivalent statistics for tree-ring chronologies. Analysis of the 14C signal in the shells shows no trend in the marine radiocarbon reservoir correction (DR), although it may be more variable before ~1750. The d13C signal shows a very significant (R**2 = 0.456, p < 0.0001) trend due to the 13C Suess effect.
Resumo:
In a study of ODP Hole 689B no iridium (Ir) anomaly was found in Sections 1 through 6 of Core 25X or in Core 26X from the top down to section 2, 3-12 cm. The background Ir abundance averaged 11 parts per trillion (ppt) and a clay-enriched region had nearly the same average, 26 ± 12 ppt. If the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) contact is in the region studied, then sedimentation was not continuous, and the K-T boundary was probably either not deposited or it was eroded away. In a study of Cores 15X and 16X of ODP Hole 690C, an iridium peak with a maximum abundance of 1566 ± 222 ppt was found in Section 4 of Core 15X at 39-40 cm with a half-width of 6.6 cm. Background abundances were ~15 ppt and distinctly higher Ir abundances were observed from 119 cm below to 72 cm above the main peak. The Ir distribution below the main peak is attributed to bioturbation by organisms with burrows extending at least 0.4 m. The Ir distribution above the main peak may be due to the same cause but other explanations may be significant. There are variable enrichments of clay in the mainly CaCO3 sediment of Core 15X, and the stratigraphically lowest part of the most abundant clay deposits is found (within 2 cm) in the same position as the main Ir peak. The clay deposit, which is estimated to be about 50% of the sediment, extends upward ~19 cm and then slowly decreases to a background level of 10% over 1 m. The degree of homogeneity of the clay-rich interval suggests it was not due to episodic volcanism but may have been due to a decrease of the CaCO3 deposition rate which was possibly triggered by the impact of a large asteroid or comet on the Earth.