(Table 1) Experimental shear strength values for IODP Exp315 and Exp316 holes

We investigate the mechanics of slope failures on the Nankai accretionary complex offshore Japan in the vicinity of a major out-of-sequence thrust fault (termed the "megasplay"). Incorporating laboratory-measured shear strength of slope sediments sampled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Expeditions 315 and 316 with local seafloor slope angles from bathymetric data and constraints on in-situ effective stress conditions from drilling, we find that slopes in the study area are stable and submarine landslides are not expected to occur under static conditions. In order to assess the possibility of slope failure triggered by coseismic rupture of the megasplay fault, we use empirical relations for strong ground motion attenuation from earthquakes with Mw 6-9. We find that the slope sediments should be stable based on computations from one model, developed from a catalog of worldwide subduction zone earthquakes (Youngs et al., 1997, doi:10.1785/gssrl.68.1.58). However, using a different model developed primarily from a catalog of crustal earthquakes in Japan (Kanno et al., 2006, doi:10.1785/0120050138), we find that slopes should be unstable for earthquakes 8 <= Mw <= 9, and possibly unstable for events with 6 <= Mw < 8, depending on the proximity of rupture to the seafloor. Considering limitations of the models and geologic observations of slope failure recurrence, the true slope stability is likely to be in between the predictions of the two models, and we suggest that it may be modulated by long-term pore pressure fluctuations.

(Table 1) Experimental details and results

Factor-of-safety analyses of submarine slope failure depend critically on the shear strength of the slope material, which is often evaluated with residual strength values and for normally consolidated sediments. Here, we report on direct measurements of both shear strength and cohesion for a quartz-clay mixture over a wide range of overconsolidation ratios (OCRs). For normally consolidated sediment at low stresses, cohesion is the dominant source of shear strength compared to friction. Significant increases in peak shear strength occur for OCR > 4, and the primary source of this strength increase is due to increased cohesion, rather than friction. The proportion of added shear strength due to cohesion depends log-linearly on the OCR. We show that at shallow depths where OCR values can be high, overconsolidated clays can be stronger than pure or nearly pure quartz sediments, which are cohesionless under near-surface conditions. Our data also suggest that areas which have experienced significant unroofing due to previous mass movements are less likely to experience subsequent failure at shallow depths due to increased peak strength, and if failure occurs it is expected to be deeper where the OCR is lower. In seismically active areas, this is one potential explanation for the general observation of lower slope failure recurrence compared to rates expected from triggering due to local earthquakes.