Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Integrated values of heterotrophic picoplankton and primary production (euphotic zone) in the Antarctic polar frontal region during POLARSTERN cruises ANT-XIII/2 and ANT-XVI/3

We assessed relationships between phytoplankton standing stock, measured as chlorophyll a (Chl a), primary production (PP), and heterotrophic picoplankton production (HPP), in the epipelagic zone (0-100 m) as well as in the mesopelagic zone (100-1,000 m) in the polar frontal zone of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean in austral summer (late December to January) and fall (March to early May). Integrated epipelagic HPP was positively correlated to integrated PP in summer (data for fall are not available) but not to integrated Chl a. However, integrated mesopelagic HPP was positively correlated to Chl a in summer as well as fall. The mesopelagic fraction of HPP as a percentage of total HPP was also positively correlated to Chl a, whereas the epipelagic fraction of HPP was negatively correlated to it. These results indicate that with increasing phytoplankton standing stock, constituted mainly of highly silicified diatoms, the focus of its consumption by heterotrophic picoplankton shifts from epipelagic to mesopelagic waters. With a growth efficiency of 30%, our HPP data indicate that in both the epipelagic and mesopelagic zone heterotrophic picoplankton consume 20% of PP. Mesopelagic heterotrophic picoplankton consumed around 80% of the sinking flux, measured from depletion of 234Th, which is a lower fraction than that reported from the central and subarctic Pacific. Our analysis indicates that it is important to include mesopelagic HPP in comprehensive assessments of the microbial consumption of PP, phytoplankton biomass, and particulate organic matter in cold oceanic systems with high rates of export production.