(Table 1) Water storage changes of the 33 world's largest river basins between 2002-2009

Global change in land water storage and its effect on sea level is estimated over a 7-year time span (August 2002 to July 2009) using space gravimetry data from GRACE. The 33 World largest river basins are considered. We focus on the year-to-year variability and construct a total land water storage time series that we further express in equivalent sea level time series. The short-term trend in total water storage adjusted over this 7-year time span is positive and amounts to 80.6 ± 15.7 km**3/yr (net water storage excess). Most of the positive contribution arises from the Amazon and Siberian basins (Lena and Yenisei), followed by the Zambezi, Orinoco and Ob basins. The largest negative contributions (water deficit) come from the Mississippi, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Aral, Euphrates, Indus and Parana. Expressed in terms of equivalent sea level, total water volume change over 2002-2009 leads to a small negative contribution to sea level of -0.22 ± 0.05 mm/yr. The time series for each basin clearly show that year-to-year variability dominates so that the value estimated in this study cannot be considered as representative of a long-term trend. We also compare the interannual variability of total land water storage (removing the mean trend over the studied time span) with interannual variability in sea level (corrected for thermal expansion). A correlation of ~0.6 is found. Phasing, in particular, is correct. Thus, at least part of the interannual variability of the global mean sea level can be attributed to land water storage fluctuations.

Coral-algae metabolism and diurnal changes in the CO2-carbonate system of bulk sea water

Precise measurements were conducted in continuous flow seawater mesocosms located in full sunlight that compared metabolic response of coral, coral-macroalgae and macroalgae systems over a diurnal cycle. Irradiance controlled net photosynthesis (Pnet), which in turn drove net calcification (Gnet), and altered pH. Pnet exerted the dominant control on [CO3]2- and aragonite saturation state (Omega arag) over the diel cycle. Dark calcification rate decreased after sunset, reaching zero near midnight followed by an increasing rate that peaked at 03:00 h. Changes in Omega arag and pH lagged behind Gnet throughout the daily cycle by two or more hours. The flux rate Pnet was the primary driver of calcification. Daytime coral metabolism rapidly removes dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the bulk seawater and photosynthesis provides the energy that drives Gnet while increasing the bulk water pH. These relationships result in a correlation between Gnet and Omega arag, with Omega arag as the dependent variable. High rates of H+ efflux continued for several hours following mid-day peak Gnet suggesting that corals have difficulty in shedding waste protons as described by the Proton Flux Hypothesis. DIC flux (uptake) followed Pnet and Gnet and dropped off rapidly following peak Pnet and peak Gnet indicating that corals can cope more effectively with the problem of limited DIC supply compared to the problem of eliminating H+. Over a 24 h period the plot of total alkalinity (AT) versus DIC as well as the plot of Gnet versus Omega arag revealed a circular hysteresis pattern over the diel cycle in the coral and coral-algae mesocosms, but not the macroalgae mesocosm. Presence of macroalgae did not change Gnet of the corals, but altered the relationship between Omega arag and Gnet. Predictive models of how future global changes will effect coral growth that are based on oceanic Omega arag must include the influence of future localized Pnet on Gnet and changes in rate of reef carbonate dissolution. The correlation between Omega arag and Gnet over the diel cycle is simply the response of the CO2-carbonate system to increased pH as photosynthesis shifts the equilibria and increases the [CO3]2- relative to the other DIC components of [HCO3]- and [CO2]. Therefore Omega arag closely tracked pH as an effect of changes in Pnet, which also drove changes in Gnet. Measurements of DIC flux and H+ flux are far more useful than concentrations in describing coral metabolism dynamics. Coral reefs are systems that exist in constant disequilibrium with the water column.

Global compilation of last glacial maximum oxygen isotopic ratios for planktonic and benthic foraminifera

We use the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean three-dimensional model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM to simulate the climate and oxygen stable isotopic signal during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 yr). By using a model that is able to explicitly simulate the sensor (d18O), results can be directly compared with data from climatic archives in the different realms. Our results indicate that iLOVECLIM reproduces well the main feature of the LGM climate in the atmospheric and oceanic components. The annual mean d18O in precipitation shows more depleted values in the northern and southern high latitudes during the LGM. The model reproduces very well the spatial gradient observed in ice core records over the Greenland ice-sheet. We observe a general pattern toward more enriched values for continental calcite d18O in the model at the LGM, in agreement with speleothem data. This can be explained by both a general atmospheric cooling in the tropical and subtropical regions and a reduction in precipitation as confirmed by reconstruction derived from pollens and plant macrofossils. Data-model comparison for sea surface temperature indicates that iLOVECLIM is capable to satisfyingly simulate the change in oceanic surface conditions between the LGM and present. Our data-model comparison for calcite d18O allows investigating the large discrepancies with respect to glacial temperatures recorded by different microfossil proxies in the North Atlantic region. The results argue for a trong mean annual cooling between the LGM and present (>6°C), supporting the foraminifera transfer function reconstruction but in disagreement with alkenones and dinocyst reconstructions. The data-model comparison also reveals that large positive calcite d18O anomaly in the Southern Ocean may be explained by an important cooling, although the driver of this pattern is unclear. We deduce a large positive d18Osw anomaly for the north Indian Ocean that contrasts with a large negative d18Osw anomaly in the China Sea between the LGM and present. This pattern may be linked to changes in the hydrological cycle over these regions. Our simulation of the deep ocean suggests that changes in d18Osw between the LGM and present are not spatially homogenous. This is supported by reconstructions derived from pore fluids in deep-sea sediments. The model underestimates the deep ocean cooling thus biasing the comparison with benthic calcite d18O data. Nonetheless, our data-model comparison support a heterogeneous cooling of few degrees (2-4°C) in the LGM Ocean.

Debris flow magnitudes: a global catalog

The episodic occurrence of debris flow events in response to stochastic precipitation and wildfire events makes hazard prediction challenging. Previous work has shown that frequency-magnitude distributions of non-fire-related debris flows follow a power law, but less is known about the distribution of post-fire debris flows. As a first step in parameterizing hazard models, we use frequency-magnitude distributions and cumulative distribution functions to compare volumes of post-fire debris flows to non-fire-related debris flows. Due to the large number of events required to parameterize frequency-magnitude distributions, and the relatively small number of post-fire event magnitudes recorded in the literature, we collected data on 73 recent post-fire events in the field. The resulting catalog of 988 debris flow events is presented as an appendix to this article. We found that the empirical cumulative distribution function of post-fire debris flow volumes is composed of smaller events than that of non-fire-related debris flows. In addition, the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of post-fire debris flows is steeper than that of non-fire-related debris flows, evidence that differences in the post-fire environment tend to produce a higher proportion of small events. We propose two possible explanations: 1) post-fire events occur on shorter return intervals than debris flows in similar basins that do not experience fire, causing their distribution to shift toward smaller events due to limitations in sediment supply, or 2) fire causes changes in resisting and driving forces on a package of sediment, such that a smaller perturbation of the system is required in order for a debris flow to occur, resulting in smaller event volumes.

Benthic foraminiferal response to the emergence of the Isthmus of Panama and coincident paleoceanographic changes

Late Cenozoic benthic foraminiferal faunas from the Caribbean Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 502 (3052 m) and East Pacific DSDP Site 503 (3572 m) were analyzed to interpret bottom-water masses and paleoceanographic changes occurring as the Isthmus of Panama emerged. Major changes during the past 7 Myr occur at 6.7-6.2, 3.4, 2.0, and 1.1 Ma in the Caribbean and 6.7-6.4, 4.0-3.2, 2.1, 1.4, and 0.7 Ma in the Pacific. Prior to 6.7 Ma, benthic foraminiferal faunas at both sites indicate the presence of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). After 6.7 Ma benthic foraminiferal faunas indicate a shift to warmer water masses: North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the Caribbean and Pacific Deep Water (PDW) in the Pacific. Flow of NADW may have continued across the rising sill between the Caribbean and Pacific until 5.6 Ma when the Pacific benthic foraminiferal faunas suggest a decrease in bottom-water temperatures. After 5.6 Ma deep-water to intermediate-water flow across the sill appears to have stopped as the bottom-water masses on either side of the sill diverge. The second change recorded by benthic foraminiferal faunas occurs at 3.4 Ma in the Caribbean and 4.0-3.2 Ma in the Pacific. At this time the Caribbean is flooded with cold AABW, which is either gradually warmed or is replaced by Glacial Bottom Water (GBW) at 2.0 Ma and by NADW at 1.1 Ma. These changes are related to global climatic events and to the depth of the sill between the Caribbean and Atlantic rather than the rising Isthmus of Panama. Benthic foraminiferal faunas at East Pacific Site 503 indicate a gradual change from cold PDW to warmer PDW between 4.0 and 3.2 Ma. The PDW is replaced by the warmer, poorly oxygenated PIW at 2.1 Ma. Although the PDW affects the faunas during colder intervals between 1.4 and 0.7 Ma, the PIW remains the principal bottom-water mass in the Guatemala Basin of the East Pacific.

Orbital-resolution Pliocene-Pleistocene simulations of CO2, sea level, global temperature and benthic d18O, and d11B-based proxy-CO2 data

During the past five million yrs, benthic d18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial-interglacial CO2 variability of 60-100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate. Here, we drive a coupled climate-ice sheet model over the past five million years, inversely forced by a stacked benthic d18O record. We obtain continuous simulations of benthic d18O, sea level and CO2 that are mutually consistent. Our model shows CO2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the Early Pliocene. Furthermore, we simulate strong CO2 variability during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. These features are broadly supported by existing and new d11B-based proxy CO2 data, but less by alkenone-based records. The simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes. Our findings thus suggest a smaller Earth System Sensitivity than previously thought. This is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the Pliocene. The largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of East Antarctica, which governs the variability in sea level, but only modestly affects the modeled CO2 concentrations.

Biomineralization changes with food supply confer juvenile scallops (Argopecten purpuratus) resistance to ocean acidification

Future ocean acidification (OA) will affect physiological traits of marine species, with calcifying species being particularly vulnerable. As OA entails high energy demands, particularly during the rapid juvenile growth phase, food supply may play a key role in the response of marine organisms to OA. We experimentally evaluated the role of food supply in modulating physiological responses and biomineralization processes in juveniles of the Chilean scallop, Argopecten purpuratus, that were exposed to control (pH 8.0) and low pH (pH 7.6) conditions using three food supply treatments (high, intermediate, and low). We found that pH and food levels had additive effects on the physiological response of the juvenile scallops. Metabolic rates, shell growth, net calcification, and ingestion rates increased significantly at low pH conditions, independent of food. These physiological responses increased significantly in organisms exposed to intermediate and high levels of food supply. Hence, food supply seems to play a major role modulating organismal response by providing the energetic means to bolster the physiological response of OA stress. On the contrary, the relative expression of chitin synthase, a functional molecule for biomineralization, increased significantly in scallops exposed to low food supply and low pH, which resulted in a thicker periostracum enriched with chitin polysaccharides. Under reduced food and low pH conditions, the adaptive organismal response was to trade-off growth for the expression of biomineralization molecules and altering of the organic composition of shell periostracum, suggesting that the future performance of these calcifiers will depend on the trajectories of both OA and food supply. Thus, incorporating a suite of traits and multiple stressors in future studies of the adaptive organismal response may provide key insights on OA impacts on marine calcifiers.

Effects of ocean acidification and global warming on reef bioerosion-lessons from a clionaid sponge

Coral reefs are under threat, exerted by a number of interacting effects inherent to the present climate change, including ocean acidification and global warming. Bioerosion drives reef degradation by recycling carbonate skeletal material and is an important but understudied factor in this context. Twelve different combinations of pCO2 and temperature were applied to elucidate the consequences of ocean acidification and global warming on the physiological response and bioerosion rates of the zooxanthellate sponge Cliona orientalis-one of the most abundant and effective bioeroders on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Our results confirm a significant amplification of the sponges' bioerosion capacity with increasing pCO2, which is expressed by more carbonate being chemically dissolved by etching. The health of the sponges and their photosymbionts was not affected by changes in pCO2, in contrast to temperature, which had significant negative impacts at higher levels. However, we could not conclusively explain the relationship between temperature and bioerosion rates, which were slightly reduced at both colder as well as warmer temperatures than ambient. The present findings on the effects of ocean acidification on chemical bioerosion, however, will have significant implications for predicting future reef carbonate budgets, as sponges often contribute the lion's share of internal bioerosion on coral reefs.

Discarge compilation from The Global River Discharge (RivDIS) Project

The Global River Discharge (RivDIS) data set contains monthly discharge measurements for 1018 stations located throughout the world. The period of record varies widely from station to station, with a mean of 21.5 years. These data were digitized from published UNESCO archives by Charles Voromarty, Balaze Fekete, and B.A. Tucker of the Complex Systems Research Center (CSRC) at the University of New Hampshire. River discharge is typically measured through the use of a rating curve that relates local water level height to discharge. This rating curve is used to estimate discharge from the observed water level. The rating curves are periodically rechecked and recalibrated through on-site measurement of discharge and river stage.

Being young in a changing world: how temperature and salinity changes interactively modify the performance of larval stages of the barnacle Amphibalanus improvisus

The fate of key species, such as the barnacle Amphibalanus improvisus, in the course of global change is of particular interest since any change in their abundance and/or performance may entail community-wide effects. In the fluctuating Western Baltic, species typically experience a broad range of environmental conditions, which may preselect them to better cope with climate change. In this study, we examined the sensitivity of two crucial ontogenetic phases (naupliar, cypris) of the barnacle toward a range of temperature (12, 20, and 28°C) and salinity (5, 15, and 30 psu) combinations. Under all salinity treatments, nauplii developed faster at intermediate and high temperatures. Cyprid metamorphosis success, in contrast, was interactively impacted by temperature and salinity. Survival of nauplii decreased with increasing salinity under all temperature treatments. Highest settlement rates occurred at the intermediate temperature and salinity combination, i.e., 20°C and 15 psu. Settlement success of "naive" cyprids, i.e., when nauplii were raised in the absence of stress (20°C/15 psu), was less impacted by stressful temperature/salinity combinations than that of cyprids with a stress history. Here, settlement success was highest at 30 psu particularly at low and high temperatures. Surprisingly, larval survival was not highest under the conditions typical for the Kiel Fjord at the season of peak settlement (20°C/15 psu). The proportion of nauplii that ultimately transformed to attached juveniles was, however, highest under these "home" conditions. Overall, only particularly stressful combinations of temperature and salinity substantially reduced larval performance and development. Given more time for adaptation, the relatively smooth climate shifts predicted will probably not dramatically affect this species.

Seasonal changes in sediment core PS1795-2

The Weddell Sea and the associated Filchner-Rønne Ice Shelf constitute key regions for global bottomwater production today. However, little is known about bottom-water production under different climate and icesheet conditions. Therefore, we studied core PS1795, which consists primarily of fine-grained siliciclastic varves that were deposited on contourite ridges in the southeastern Weddell Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We conducted high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analysis and grain-size measurements with the RADIUS tool (Seelos and Sirocko, 2005, doi:10.1111/j.1365-3091.2005.00715.x) using thin sections to characterize the two seasonal components of the varves at sub-mm resolution to distinguish the seasonal components of the varves. Bright layers contain coarser grains that can mainly be identified as quartz in the medium-to-coarse silt grain size. They also contain higher amounts of Si, Zr, Ca, and Sr, as well as more ice-rafted debris (IRD). Dark layers, on the other hand, contain finer particles such as mica and clay minerals from the chlorite and illite groups. In addition, Fe, Ti, Rb, and K are elevated. Based on these findings as well as on previous analyses on neighbouring cores, we propose a model of enhanced thermohaline convection in front of a grounded ice sheet that is supported by seasonally variable coastal polynya activity during the LGM. Accordingly, katabatic (i.e. offshore blowing) winds removed sea ice from the ice edge, leading to coastal polynya formation. We suggest that glacial processes were similar to today with stronger katabatic winds and enhanced coastal polynya activity during the winter season. Under these conditions, lighter coarser-grained layers are likely glacial winter deposits, when brine rejection was increased, leading to enhanced bottom-water formation and increased sediment transport. Vice versa, darker finer-grained layers were then deposited during less windier season, mainly during summer, when coastal polynya activity was likely reduced.

Changes in the vegetation and trade winds in equatorial Northwest Africa 140,000-70,000 yr B.P., as deduced from two marine pollen records

The deep-sea cores M 16415-2 and M 16416-2 at about 9°N off Sierra Leone were analysed palynologically for the time interval 140,000-70,000 yr B.P. Results were presented in absolute (pollen concentration and pollen influx) and relative diagrams (pollen percentage). In a previous study it was evidenced that in northwest Africa pollen is mainly transported to the Atlantic by wind, so that the efficiency of aeolian pollen transport (pollen flux) could be used to evaluate changes in the intensity of the northeast trade winds. The glacial episodes (represented by the oxygen isotope stages 6 and 4) are characterized by strong northeast trade winds, whereas the last interglacial (stage 5) is characterized by weak trade winds. The pollen influx diagram shows that the intensity of the trade winds increased slightly during the relatively cool intervals of stage 5 (viz. 5.4 and 5.2). Tropical forest had maximally expanded around 124,000 yr B.P. (stage 5.5), around 98,000 yr B.P. (transition of stage 5.3 to 5.2), and around 70,000 yr B.P. (first part of stage 4): an increasing delay of the response of tropical forest to global intervals with maximum temperature is apparent during the last interglacial. As tropical forests need continuous humidity, the record of tropical forest monitors changes in climatic humidity south of the Sahara. During the last interglacial, the southern boundary of the Sahara shifted only little: expansions and contractions of the tropical forest area are correlated with contra-oscillations of the grass-dominated savanna zone. Great latitudinal shifts of the desert savanna boundary, on the contrary, occurred during the penultimate glacial interglacial transition (around 128,000 yr B.P.) to the north, and during the last interglacial-glacial transition (around 65,000 yr B.P.) to the south.

Solar sensitivity experiments for the pre-industrial time period using the comprehensive global climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3)

The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate. The possible influence of solar forcing on SWW variability during the Holocene is addressed. Solar sensitivity experiments with a comprehensive global climate model (CCSM3) are carried out to study the response of SWW to solar variability. In addition, It is shown that a high-resolution iron record from the Chilean continental slope (41° S), which is interpreted to reflect changes in the position of the SWW, is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity during the past 3000 years. Taken together, the proxy and model results suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the annual mean SWW.

Productivity- and ocean circulation changes in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic during the last deglaciation and Marine Isotope Stage 3

Millennial-scale climate changes during the last glacial period and deglaciation were accompanied by rapid changes in atmospheric CO2 that remain unexplained. While the role of the Southern Ocean as a 'control valve' on ocean-atmosphere CO2 exchange has been emphasized, the exact nature of this role, in particular the relative contributions of physical (for example, ocean dynamics and air-sea gas exchange) versus biological processes (for example, export productivity), remains poorly constrained. Here we combine reconstructions of bottom-water [O2], export production and 14C ventilation ages in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic, and show that atmospheric CO2 pulses during the last glacial- and deglacial periods were consistently accompanied by decreases in the biological export of carbon and increases in deep-ocean ventilation via southern-sourced water masses. These findings demonstrate how the Southern Ocean's 'organic carbon pump' has exerted a tight control on atmospheric CO2, and thus global climate, specifically via a synergy of both physical and biological processes.