75 resultados para Natural Catastrophe, Property Insurance, Loss Distribution, Truncated Data, Ruin Probability
Resumo:
The success of any efforts to determine the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems depends on understanding in the first instance the natural variations, which contemporarily occur on the interannual and shorter time scales. Here we present results on the environmental controls of zooplankton distribution patterns and behaviour in the eastern Weddell Sea, Southern Ocean. Zooplankton abundance and vertical migration are derived from the mean volume backscattering strength (MVBS) and the vertical velocity measured by moored acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs), which were deployed simultaneously at 64°S, 66.5°S and 69°S along the Greenwich Meridian from February, 2005, until March, 2008. While these time series span a period of full three years they resolve hourly changes. A highly persistent behavioural pattern found at all three mooring locations is the synchronous diel vertical migration (DVM) of two distinct groups of zooplankton that migrate between a deep residence depth during daytime and a shallow depth during nighttime. The DVM was closely coupled to the astronomical daylight cycles. However, while the DVM was symmetric around local noon, the annual modulation of the DVM was clearly asymmetric around winter solstice or summer solstice, respectively, at all three mooring sites. DVM at our observation sites persisted throughout winter, even at the highest latitude exposed to the polar night. Since the magnitude as well as the relative rate of change of illumination is minimal at this time, we propose that the ultimate causes of DVM separated from the light-mediated proximal cue that coordinates it. In all three years, a marked change in the migration behaviour occurred in late spring (late October/early November), when DVM ceased. The complete suspension of DVM after early November is possibly caused by the combination of two factors: (1) increased availability of food in the surface mixed layer provided by the phytoplankton spring bloom, and (2) vanishing diurnal enhancement of the threat from visually oriented predators when the illumination is quasi-continuous during the polar and subpolar summer. Zooplankton abundance in the water column, estimated as the mean MVBS in the depth range 50-300 m, was highest end of summer and lowest mid to end winter on the average annual cycle. However, zooplankton abundance varied several-fold between years and between locations. Based on satellite and in situ data of chlorophyll and sea ice as well as on hydrographic measurements, the interannual and spatial variations of zooplankton mean abundance can be explained by differences in the magnitude of the phytoplankton spring bloom, which develops during the seasonal sea ice retreat. Whereas the vernal ice melt appears necessary to stimulate the blooming of phytoplankton, it is not the determinator of the blooms magnitude, its areal extent and duration. A possible explanation for the limitation of the phytoplankton bloom in some years is top-down control. We hypothesise that the phytoplankton spring development can be curbed by grazing when the zooplankton had attained high abundance by growth during the preceding summer.
Resumo:
The Lena River Delta, situated in Northern Siberia (72.0 - 73.8° N, 122.0 - 129.5° E), is the largest Arctic delta and covers 29,000 km**2. Since natural deltas are characterised by complex geomorphological patterns and various types of ecosystems, high spatial resolution information on the distribution and extent of the delta environments is necessary for a spatial assessment and accurate quantification of biogeochemical processes as drivers for the emission of greenhouse gases from tundra soils. In this study, the first land cover classification for the entire Lena Delta based on Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images was conducted and used for the quantification of methane emissions from the delta ecosystems on the regional scale. The applied supervised minimum distance classification was very effective with the few ancillary data that were available for training site selection. Nine land cover classes of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in the wetland dominated (72%) Lena Delta could be defined by this classification approach. The mean daily methane emission of the entire Lena Delta was calculated with 10.35 mg CH4/m**2/d. Taking our multi-scale approach into account we find that the methane source strength of certain tundra wetland types is lower than calculated previously on coarser scales.
Resumo:
Shorebirds have declined severely across the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. Many species rely on intertidal habitats for foraging, yet the distribution and conservation status of these habitats across Australia remain poorly understood. Here, we utilised freely available satellite imagery to produce the first map of intertidal habitats across Australia. We estimated a minimum intertidal area of 9856 km**2, with Queensland and Western Australia supporting the largest areas. Thirty-nine percent of intertidal habitats were protected in Australia, with some primarily within marine protected areas (e.g. Queensland) and others within terrestrial protected areas (e.g. Victoria). In fact, three percent of all intertidal habitats were protected both by both marine and terrestrial protected areas. To achieve conservation targets, protected area boundaries must align more accurately with intertidal habitats. Shorebirds use intertidal areas to forage and supratidal areas to roost, so a coordinated management approach is required to account for movement of birds between terrestrial and marine habitats. Ultimately, shorebird declines are occurring despite high levels of habitat protection in Australia. There is a need for a concerted effort both nationally and internationally to map and understand how intertidal habitats are changing, and how habitat conservation can be implemented more effectively.
Resumo:
Natural CO2 venting systems can mimic conditions that resemble intermediate to high pCO2 levels as predicted for our future oceans. They represent ideal sites to investigate potential long-term effects of ocean acidification on marine life. To test whether microbes are affected by prolonged exposure to pCO2 levels, we examined the composition and diversity of microbial communities in oxic sandy sediments along a natural CO2 gradient. Increasing pCO2 was accompanied by higher bacterial richness and by a strong increase in rare members in both bacterial and archaeal communities. Microbial communities from sites with CO2 concentrations close to today's conditions had different structures than those of sites with elevated CO2 levels. We also observed increasing sequence abundance of several organic matter degrading types of Flavobacteriaceae and Rhodobacteraceae, which paralleled concurrent shifts in benthic cover and enhanced primary productivity. With increasing pCO2, sequences related to bacterial nitrifying organisms such as Nitrosococcus and Nitrospirales decreased, and sequences affiliated to the archaeal ammonia-oxidizing Thaumarchaeota Nitrosopumilus maritimus increased. Our study suggests that microbial community structure and diversity, and likely key ecosystem functions, may be altered in coastal sediments by long-term CO2 exposure to levels predicted for the end of the century.
Resumo:
Physical propoerty data particularly of the frequency dependent magnetic susceptibility in depth and time show (semi)cyclic behaviour, which we ascribe to millennial scale climate variability also seen in the Black Sea region and large parts of the northern hemisphere.
Resumo:
The distribution of methane and hydrogen sulfide concentrations in sediments of various basins of the Baltic Sea was investigated during 4 cruises in 1995 and 1996. Significant differences in the concentrations of both compounds were recorded between the basins and also between different areas within the Gotland Deep. High-methane sediments with distinctly increasing concentrations from the surface to deeper layers were distinguished from low-methane sediments without a clear gradient. Methane concentrations exhibited a fair correlation with the sediment accumulation rate, determined by measuring the total thickness of the post-Ancylus Holocene sequence on echosounding profiles in the Gotland Deep. Only weak correlations were observed with the content of organic matter in the surface layers of the sediments. Hydrogen sulfide concentrations in the sediments showed a positive correlation with methane concentrations, but, in contrast to methane concentrations, were strongly influenced by the transition from oxic to anoxic conditions in the water column between 1995 and 1996. Sediments in the deepest part of the Gotland Basin (>237 m water depth), covering an area of approximately 35 km**2, were characterized by especially high accumulation rates (>70 cm/ka) and high methane and hydrogen sulfide contents. Concentrations of these compounds decreased rapidly towards the slope of the basin.
Resumo:
In September 2008 several cores (68 cm-115 cm length) (water depth: 93 m) were retrieved from Lake Nam Co (southern-central Tibetan Plateau; 4718 m a.s.l.). This study focuses on the interpretation of high-resolution (partly 0.2 cm) data from three gravity cores and the upper part of a 10.4 m long piston core, i.e., the past 4000 cal BP in terms of lake level changes, hydrological variations in the catchment area and consequently variations in monsoon strength. A wide spectrum of sedimentological, geochemical and mineralogical investigations was carried out. Results are presented for XRF core-scans, grain size distribution, XRD-measurements and SEM-image analyses. These data are complemented by an age-depth model using 210Pb and 137Cs analyses as well as eleven AMS-14C-ages. This model is supported by excellent agreement between secular variations determined on one of the gravity cores to geomagnetic field models. This is a significant improvement of the chronology as most catchments of lacustrine systems on the Tibetan Plateau contain carbonates resulting in an unknown reservoir effect for radiocarbon dates. The good correlation of our record to the geomagnetic field models confirms our age-depth model and indicates only insignificant changes in the reservoir effect throughout the last 4 ka. High (summer-) monsoonal activity, i.e. moist environmental conditions, was detected in our record between approximately 4000 and 1950 cal BP as well as between 1480 and 1200 cal BP. Accordingly, lower monsoon activity prevails in periods between the two intervals and thereafter. This pattern shows a good correlation to the variability of the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon (IOSM) as recorded in a peat bog ~1000 km in NE direction from Lake Nam Co. This is the first time that such a supra regional homogenous monsoon activity is shown on the Tibetan Plateau and beyond. Finally our data show a significant lake level rise after the Little Ice Age (LIA) in Lake Nam Co which is suggested to be linked to glacier melting in consequence of rising temperatures occurring on the whole Tibetan Plateau during this time.
Resumo:
Eolian dust is a significant source of iron and other nutrients that are essential for the health of marine ecosystems and potentially a controlling factor of the high nutrient-low chlorophyll status of the Subarctic North Pacific. We map the spatial distribution of dust input using three different geochemical tracers of eolian dust, 4He, 232Th and rare earth elements, in combination with grain size distribution data, from a set of core-top sediments covering the entire Subarctic North Pacific. Using the suite of geochemical proxies to fingerprint different lithogenic components, we deconvolve eolian dust input from other lithogenic inputs such as volcanic ash, ice-rafted debris, riverine and hemipelagic input. While the open ocean sites far away from the volcanic arcs are dominantly composed of pure eolian dust, lithogenic components other than eolian dust play a more crucial role along the arcs. In sites dominated by dust, eolian dust input appears to be characterized by a nearly uniform grain size mode at ~4 µm. Applying the 230Th-normalization technique, our proxies yield a consistent pattern of uniform dust fluxes of 1-2 g/m**2/yr across the Subarctic North Pacific. Elevated eolian dust fluxes of 2-4 g/m**2/yr characterize the westernmost region off Japan and the southern Kurile Islands south of 45° N and west of 165° E along the main pathway of the westerly winds. The core-top based dust flux reconstruction is consistent with recent estimates based on dissolved thorium isotope concentrations in seawater from the Subarctic North Pacific. The dust flux pattern compares well with state-of-the-art dust model predictions in the western and central Subarctic North Pacific, but we find that dust fluxes are higher than modeled fluxes by 0.5-1 g/m**2/yr in the northwest, northeast and eastern Subarctic North Pacific. Our results provide an important benchmark for biogeochemical models and a robust approach for downcore studies testing dust-induced iron fertilization of past changes in biological productivity in the Subarctic North Pacific.
Resumo:
Over 150 million cubic meter of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent widespread erosion of adjacent beaches, wetlands, and submarine environments. A unique, multi-faceted provenance study was performed to definitively establish the primary sources, sinks, and transport pathways of beach sized-sand in the region, thereby identifying the activities and processes that directly limit supply to the outer coast. This integrative program is based on comprehensive surficial sediment sampling of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, including the seabed, Bay floor, area beaches, adjacent rock units, and major drainages. Analyses of sample morphometrics and biological composition (e.g., Foraminifera) were then integrated with a suite of tracers including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotopes, rare earth elements, semi-quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogy, and heavy minerals, and with process-based numerical modeling, in situ current measurements, and bedform asymmetry to robustly determine the provenance of beach-sized sand in the region.
Resumo:
1. Desmoscolecida from the continental slope and the deep-sea bottom (59-4354 m) off the Portuguese and Moroccan coasts are described. 18 species were identified: Desmoscolex bathyalis sp. nov., D. chaetalatus sp. nov., D. eftus sp. nov., D. galeatus sp. nov., D. lapilliferus sp. nov., D. longisetosus Timm, 1970, D. lorenzeni sp. nov., D. perspicuus sp. nov., D. pustulatus sp. nov., Quadricoma angulocephala sp. nov., Q. brevichaeta sp. nov., Q. iberica sp. nov., Q. loricatoides sp. nov., Tricoma atlantica sp. nov., T. bathycola sp. nov., T. beata sp. nov., T. incomposita sp. nov., T. meteora sp. nov., T. mauretania sp. nov. 2. The following new terms are proposed: "Desmos" (ring-shaped concretions consisting of secretion and concretion particles), "desmoscolecoid" and "tricomoid" arrangement of the somatic setae, "regelmaessige" (regular), "unregelmaessige" (irregular), "vollstaendige" (complete) and "unvollstaendige" (incomplete) arrangement of somatic seta (variations in the desmoscolecoid arrangement of the somatic setae). The length of the somatic setae is given in the setal pattern. 3. Desmoscolecida identical as to genus and species exhibit no morphological differences even if forthcoming from different bathymetrical zones (deep sea, sublitoral, litoral) or different environments (marin, freshwater, coastal subsoil water, terrestrial environment). 4. Lorenzen's (1969) contention that thearrangement of the somatic setae is more significant for the natural relationships between the different genera of Desmoscolecida than other characteristics is further confirmed. Species with tricomoid arrangement of somatic setae are regarded as primitive, species with desmoscolecoid arrangement of somatic setae are regarded as more advanced. 5. Three new genus are established: Desmogerlachia gen. nov., Desmolorenzenia gen. nov. and Desmofimmia gen. nov. - Protricoma Timm, 1970 is synonymized with Paratricoma Gerlach, 1964 and Protodesmoscolex Timm, 1970 is synonymized with Desmoscolex Claparede,1863. 6. Checklists of all species of the order Desmoscolecida and keys to species of the subfamilies Tricominae and Desmoscolecinae are provided. 7. The following nomenclatorial changes are suggested: Desmogerlachia papillifer (Gerlach, 1956) comb. nov., D .pratensis (Lorenz, 1969) comb. nov., Desmotimmia mirabilis (Timm, 1970) comb. nov., Paratricoma squamosa (Timm, 1970) comb. nov., Desmolorenzenia crassicauda (Timm, 1970) comb. nov., D. desmoscolecoides (Timm, 1970) comb. nov., D. eurycricus (Filipjev, 1922) comb. nov., D. frontalis (Gerlach, 1952) comb. nov., D. hupferi (Steiner, 1916) comb. nov., D. longicauda (Timm, 1970) comb. nov., D. parva (Timm, 1970) comb. nov., D. platycricus (Steiner, 1916) comb. nov., D. viffata (Lorenzen, 1969) comb. nov., Desmoscolex anfarcficos (Timm, 1970) comb. nov.
Resumo:
With the accumulation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2), a proceeding decline in seawater pH has been induced that is referred to as ocean acidification. The ocean's capacity for CO2 storage is strongly affected by biological processes, whose feedback potential is difficult to evaluate. The main source of CO2 in the ocean is the decomposition and subsequent respiration of organic molecules by heterotrophic bacteria. However, very little is known about potential effects of ocean acidification on bacterial degradation activity. This study reveals that the degradation of polysaccharides, a major component of marine organic matter, by bacterial extracellular enzymes was significantly accelerated during experimental simulation of ocean acidification. Results were obtained from pH perturbation experiments, where rates of extracellular alpha- and beta-glucosidase were measured and the loss of neutral and acidic sugars from phytoplankton-derived polysaccharides was determined. Our study suggests that a faster bacterial turnover of polysaccharides at lowered ocean pH has the potential to reduce carbon export and to enhance the respiratory CO2 production in the future ocean.
Resumo:
This chapter discusses the formation and distribution of some metals in ocean-floor manganese nodules in the light of the observed data in the literature and thermodynamic and kinetic considerations of the oxidation of metal ions in the oceanic environment. There are, in general, two major schools of thought on the mechanism of incorporation of the minor elements such as nickel, copper, and cobalt with the major elements such as manganese and iron. One is the lattice substitution mechanism and the other the adsorption mechanism. If the mechanism is lattice substitution, extraction of the metal ions is not possible unless the lattice of the major elements is first broken and exchanged with other ions from the bulk solution. Consequently, the leaching behavior of minor elements should display a very close relationship with that of major elements.
Resumo:
A preliminary set of heavy metal analyses from surface sediment samples covering the whole Adriatic Basin is presented, and their significance in terms of pollution is discussed. The core samples were analysed for Fe, Mn, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn, P, organic carbon, Ca- and Mg-carbonate, and their mineralogical composition and grain size distribution were determined. All heavy metal concentrations found can be attributed to natural sedimentological processes and are not necessarily to be interpreted as indications of pollution.
Resumo:
The Arctic is responding more rapidly to global warming than most other areas on our planet. Northward flowing Atlantic Water is the major means of heat advection towards the Arctic and strongly affects the sea ice distribution. Records of its natural variability are critical for the understanding of feedback mechanisms and the future of the Arctic climate system, but continuous historical records reach back only ~150 years. Here, we present a multidecadal scale record of ocean temperature variations during the last 2000 years, derived from marine sediments off Western Svalbard (79°N). We find that early-21st-century temperatures of Atlantic Water entering the Arctic Ocean are unprecedented over the past 2000 years and are presumably linked to the Arctic Amplification of global warming.