107 resultados para Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE)


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The mid-Pliocene was an episode of prolonged global warmth and strong North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, interrupted briefly at circa 3.30 Ma by a global cooling event corresponding to marine isotope stage (MIS) M2. Paleoceanographic changes in the eastern North Atlantic have been reconstructed between circa 3.35 and 3.24 Ma at Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 610 and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site 1308. Mg/Ca ratios and d18O from Globigerina bulloides are used to reconstruct the temperature and relative salinity of surface waters, and dinoflagellate cyst assemblages are used to assess variability in the North Atlantic Current (NAC). Our sea surface temperature data indicate warm waters at both sites before and after MIS M2 but a cooling of ~2-3°C during MIS M2. A dinoflagellate cyst assemblage overturn marked by a decline in Operculodinium centrocarpum reflects a southward shift or slowdown of the NAC between circa 3.330 and 3.283 Ma, reducing northward heat transport 23-35 ka before the global ice volume maximum of MIS M2. This will have established conditions that ultimately allowed the Greenland ice sheet to expand, leading to the global cooling event at MIS M2. Comparison with an ice-rafted debris record excludes fresh water input via icebergs in the northeast Atlantic as a cause of NAC decline. The mechanism causing the temporary disruption of the NAC may be related to a brief reopening of the Panamanian Gateway at about this time.

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The reduction in sea ice along the SE Greenland coast during the last century has severely impacted ice-rafting to this area. In order to reconstruct ice-rafting and oceanographic conditions in the area of Denmark Strait during the last ~150 years, we conducted a multiproxy study on three short (20 cm) sediment cores from outer Kangerdlugssuaq Trough (~300 m water depth). The proxy-based data obtained have been compared with historical and instrumental data to gain a better understanding of the ice sheet-ocean interactions in the area. A robust chronology has been developed based on 210Pb and 137Cs measurements on core PO175GKC#9 (~66.2°N, 32°W) and expanded to the two adjacent cores based on correlations between calcite weight percent records. Our proxy records include sea-ice and phytoplankton biomarkers, and a variety of mineralogical determinations based on the <2 mm sediment fraction, including identification with quantitative x-ray diffraction, ice-rafted debris counts on the 63-150 µm sand fraction, and source identifications based on the composition of Fe oxides in the 45-250 µm fraction. A multivariate statistical analysis indicated significant correlations between our proxy records and historical data, especially with the mean annual temperature data from Stykkishólmur (Iceland) and the storis index (historical observations of sea-ice export via the East Greenland Current). In particular, the biological proxies (calcite weight percent, IP25, and total organic carbon %) showed significant linkage with the storis index. Our records show two distinct intervals in the recent history of the SE Greenland coast. The first of these (ad 1850-1910) shows predominantly perennial sea-ice conditions in the area, while the second (ad 1910-1990) shows more seasonally open water conditions.

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The first complete cyclic sedimentary successions for the early Paleogene from drilling multiple holes have been retrieved during two ODP expeditions: Leg 198 (Shatsky Rise, NW Pacific Ocean) and Leg 208 (Walvis Ridge, SE Atlantic Ocean). These new records allow us to construct a comprehensive astronomically calibrated stratigraphic framework with an unprecedented accuracy for both the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans covering the entire Paleocene epoch based on the identification of the stable long-eccentricity cycle (405-kyr). High resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanner and non-destructive core logging data from Sites 1209 through1211 (Leg 198) and Sites 1262, 1267 (Leg 208) are the basis for such a robust chronostratigraphy. Former investigated marine (ODP Sites 1001 and 1051) and land-based (e.g., Zumaia) sections have been integrated as well. The high-fidelity chronology is the prerequisite for deciphering mechanisms in relation to prominent transient climatic events as well as completely new insights into Greenhouse climate variability in the early Paleogene. We demonstrate that the Paleocene epoch covers 24 long eccentricity cycles. We also show that no definite absolute age datums for the K/Pg boundary or the Paleocene - Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) can be provided by now, because of still existing uncertainties in orbital solutions and radiometric dating. However, we provide two options for tuning of the Paleocene which are only offset by 405-kyr. Our orbitally calibrated integrated Leg 208 magnetostratigraphy is used to revise the Geomagnetic Polarity Time Scale (GPTS) for Chron C29 to C25. We established a high-resolution calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy for the South Atlantic which allows a much more detailed relative scaling of stages with biozones. The re-evaluation of the South Atlantic spreading rate model features higher frequent oscillations in spreading rates for magnetochron C28r, C27n, and C26n.

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The sensitivity of terrestrial environments to past changes in heat transport is expected to be manifested in Holocene climate proxy records on millennial to seasonal timescales. Stalagmite formation in the Okshola cave near Fauske (northern Norway) began at about 10.4 ka, soon after the valley was deglaciated. Past monitoring of the cave and surface has revealed stable modern conditions with uniform drip rates, relative humidity and temperature. Stable isotope records from two stalagmites provide time-series spanning from c. 10380 yr to AD 1997; a banded, multi-coloured stalagmite (Oks82) was formed between 10380 yr and 5050 yr, whereas a pristine, white stalagmite (FM3) covers the period from ~7500 yr to the present. The stable oxygen isotope (delta18Oc), stable carbon isotope (delta13Cc), and growth rate records are interpreted as showing i) a negative correlation between cave/surface temperature and delta18Oc, ii) a positive correlation between wetness and delta13Cc, and iii) a positive correlation between temperature and growth rate. Following this, the data from Okshola show that the Holocene was characterised by high-variability climate in the early part, low-variability climate in the middle part, and high-variability climate and shifts between two distinct modes in the late part. A total of nine Scandinavian stalagmite delta18Oc records of comparable dating precision are now available for parts or most of the Holocene. None of them show a clear Holocene thermal optimum, suggesting that they are influenced by annual mean temperature (cave temperature) rather than seasonal temperature. For the last 1000 years, delta18Oc values display a depletion-enrichment-depletion pattern commonly interpreted as reflecting the conventional view on climate development for the last millennium. Although the delta18Oc records show similar patterns and amplitudes of change, the main challenges for utilising high-latitude stalagmites as palaeoclimate archives are i) the accuracy of the age models, ii) the ambiguity of the proxy signals, and iii) calibration with monitoring data.

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Cool tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are reported for warm Paleogene greenhouse climates based on the d18O of planktonic foraminiferal tests. These results are difficult to reconcile with models of greenhouse gas-forced climate. It has been suggested that this "cool tropics paradox" arises from postdepositional alteration of foraminiferal calcite, yielding erroneously high d18O values. Recrystallization of foraminiferal tests is cryptic and difficult to quantify, and the compilation of robust d18O records from moderately altered material remains challenging. Scanning electron microscopy of planktonic foraminiferal chamber-wall cross sections reveals that the basal area of muricae, pustular outgrowths on the chamber walls of species belonging to the genus Morozovella, contain no mural pores and may be less susceptible to postdepositional alteration. We analyzed the d18O in muricae bases of morozovellids from the central Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program Site 865) by ion microprobe using 10 ?m pits with an analytical reproducibility of ±0.34 per mil (2 standard deviations). In situ measurements of d18O in these domains yield consistently lower values than those published for conventional multispecimen analyses. Assuming that the original d18O is largely preserved in the basal areas of muricae, this new d18O record indicates Early Paleogene (~49-56 Ma) tropical SSTs in the central Pacific were 4°-8°C higher than inferred from the previously published d18O record and that SSTs reached at least ~33°C during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. This study demonstrates the utility of ion microprobe analysis for generating more reliable paleoclimate records from moderately altered foraminiferal tests preserved in deep-sea sediments.

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Drilling in the Caribbean Sea during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 165 has recovered a large number of silicic tephra layers and led to the discovery of three major episodes of explosive volcanism that occurred during the last 55 m.y. on the margins of this evolving ocean basin. The earliest episode is marked by Paleocene to early Eocene explosive volcanism on the Cayman Rise, associated with activity of the Cayman arc, an island arc that was the westward extension of the Sierra Maestra volcanic arc in southern Cuba. Caribbean sediments also document a major mid- to late Eocene explosive volcanic episode that is attributed to ignimbrite-forming eruptions on the Chortis Block in Central America to the west. This event is contemporaneous with the first phase of activity of the Sierra Madre volcanic episode in Mexico, the largest ignimbrite province on Earth. In the Caribbean sediments, a Miocene episode of explosive volcanism is comparable to the Eocene event, and also attributed to sources in the Central American arc to the west. Radiometric 40Ar/39Ar dates have been obtained for biotites and sanidines from 27 tephra layers, providing absolute ages for the volcanic episodes and further constraining the geochronology of Caribbean sediments. Volcanic activity of the Cayman arc is attributed to the northward subduction of the leading edge of the oceanic plate that carried the Caribbean oceanic plateau. Although the factors generating the large episodes of Central American explosive volcanism are unclear, we propose that they are related to contemporary major readjustments of plate tectonic configuration in the Pacific.

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This dataset present result from the DFG- funded Arctic-Turbulence-Experiment (ARCTEX-2006) performed by the University of Bayreuth on the island of Svalbard, Norway, during the winter/spring transition 2006. From May 5 to May 19, 2006 turbulent flux and meteorological measurements were performed on the monitoring field near Ny-Ålesund, at 78°55'24'' N, 11°55'15'' E Kongsfjord, Svalbard (Spitsbergen), Norway. The ARCTEX-2006 campaign site was located about 200 m southeast of the settlement on flat snow covered tundra, 11 m to 14 m above sea level. The permanent sites used for this study consisted of the 10 m meteorological tower of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar- and Marine Research (AWI), the international standardized radiation measurement site of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN), the radiosonde launch site and the AWI tethered balloon launch sites. The temporary sites - set up by the University of Bayreuth - were a 6 m meteorological gradient tower, an eddy-flux measurement complex (EF), and a laser-scintillometer section (SLS). A quality assessment and data correction was applied to detect and eliminate specific measurement errors common at a high arctic landscape. In addition, the quality checked sensible heat flux measurements are compared with bulk aerodynamic formulas that are widely used in atmosphere-ocean/land-ice models for polar regions as described in Ebert and Curry (1993, doi:10.1029/93JC00656) and Launiainen and Cheng (1995). These parameterization approaches easily allow estimation of the turbulent surface fluxes from routine meteorological measurements. The data show: - the role of the intermittency of the turbulent atmospheric fluctuation of momentum and scalars, - the existence of a disturbed vertical temperature profile (sharp inversion layer) close to the surface, - the relevance of possible free convection events for the snow or ice melt in the Arctic spring at Svalbard, and - the relevance of meso-scale atmospheric circulation pattern and air-mass advection for the near-surface turbulent heat exchange in the Arctic spring at Svalbard. Recommendations and improvements regarding the interpretation of eddy-flux and laser-scintillometer data as well as the arrangement of the instrumentation under polar distinct exchange conditions and (extreme) weather situations could be derived.

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About 34 million years ago, Earth's climate shifted from a relatively ice-free world to one with glacial conditions on Antarctica characterized by substantial ice sheets. How Earth's temperature changed during this climate transition remains poorly understood, and evidence for Northern Hemisphere polar ice is controversial. Here, we report proxy records of sea surface temperatures from multiple ocean localities and show that the high-latitude temperature decrease was substantial and heterogeneous. High-latitude (45 degrees to 70 degrees in both hemispheres) temperatures before the climate transition were ~20°C and cooled an average of ~5°C. Our results, combined with ocean and ice-sheet model simulations and benthic oxygen isotope records, indicate that Northern Hemisphere glaciation was not required to accommodate the magnitude of continental ice growth during this time.

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Synthetic mass accumulation rates have been calculated for ODP Site 707 using depth-density and depth-porosity functions to estimate values for these parameters with increasing sediment thickness, at 1 Ma time intervals determined on the basis of published microfossil datums. These datums were the basis of the age model used by Peterson and Backman (1990, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.sr.115.163.1990) to calculate actual mass accumulation rate data using density and porosity measurements. A comparison is made between the synthetic and actual mass accumulation rate values for the time interval 37 Ma to the Recent for 1 Myr time intervals. There is a correlation coefficient of 0.993 between the two data sets, with an absolute difference generally less than 0.1 g/cm**2/kyr. We have used the method to extend the mass accumulation rate analysis back to the Late Paleocene (60 Ma) for Site 707. Providing age datums (e.g. fossil or magnetic anomaly data) are available the generation of synthetic mass accumulation rates can be calculated for any sediment sequence.