67 resultados para Height and period distribution models


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Surface and upper-layer pollution of seas and oceans by crude oil and refinery products is under study by investigators in many countries. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) have prepared an international experimental project that is to be carried out within the framework of the Integrated Global Oceanic Station System (IGOSS). The purpose of the project is to prepare a picture of distribution and dynamics of oil pollution. Parameters to be observed include: oil patches (slicks), floating lumps of tar on the surface, and hydrocarbons emulsified and dissolved in water. Cruise 22 of R/V Akademik Kurchatov took the ship through regions being the most suitable for pollution studies. They were conducted from March through June 1976. On the cruise, oil slicks were observed visually by a procedure recommended by the international program. Areas of the slicks were determined from speed of the ship and time required to cross them. Surface samples were taken along the path of the ship for determination of concentrations of dissolved and emulsified hydrocarbons in water. In addition, samples were taken from deep water by a 7-liter vinyl water bottle at 17 stations. Hydrocarbons present in the samples were extracted immediately with carbon tetrachloride. Final determination of hydrocarbons was made by infrared spectrophotometry. This method is currently accepted in the Soviet Union in an arbitration capacity for determination of petroleum products dissolved and emulsified in sea water. Infrared spectrophotometry is used to determine hydrocarbons containing methyl and methylene groups, but they are not identified as to origin.

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Sediment samples and hydrographic conditions were studied at 28 stations around Iceland. At these sites, Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) casts were conducted to collect hydrographic data and multicorer casts were conductd to collect data on sediment characteristics including grain size distribution, carbon and nitrogen concentration, and chloroplastic pigment concentration. A total of 14 environmental predictors were used to model sediment characteristics around Iceland on regional geographic space. For these, two approaches were used: Multivariate Adaptation Regression Splines (MARS) and randomForest regression models. RandomForest outperformed MARS in predicting grain size distribution. MARS models had a greater tendency to over- and underpredict sediment values in areas outside the environmental envelope defined by the training dataset. We provide first GIS layers on sediment characteristics around Iceland, that can be used as predictors in future models. Although models performed well, more samples, especially from the shelf areas, will be needed to improve the models in future.

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Fine-grained sediment depocenters on continental shelves are of increased scientific interest since they record environmental changes sensitively. A north-south elongated mud depocenter extends along the Senegalese coast in mid-shelf position. Shallow-acoustic profiling was carried out to determine extent, geometry and internal structures of this sedimentary body. In addition, four sediment cores were retrieved with the main aim to identify how paleoclimatic signals and coastal changes have controlled the formation of this mud depocenter. A general paleoclimatic pattern in terms of fluvial input appears to be recorded in this depositional archive. Intervals characterized by high terrigenous input, high sedimentation rates and fine grain sizes occur roughly contemporaneously in all cores and are interpreted as corresponding to intensified river discharge related to more humid conditions in the hinterland. From 2750 to 1900 and from 1000 to 700 cal a BP, wetter conditions are recorded off Senegal, an observation which is in accordance with other records from NW-Africa. Nevertheless, the three employed proxies (sedimentation rate, grain size and elemental distribution) do not always display consistent inter-core patterns. Major differences between the individual core records are attributed to sediment remobilization which was linked to local hydrographic variations as well as reorganizations of the coastal system. The Senegal mud belt is a layered inhomogeneous sedimentary body deposited on an irregular erosive surface. Early Holocene deceleration in the rate of the sea-level rise could have enabled initial mud deposition on the shelf. These favorable conditions for mud deposition occur coevally with a humid period over NW-Africa, thus, high river discharge. Sedimentation started preferentially in the northern areas of the mud belt. During mid-Holocene, a marine incursion led to the formation of an embayment. Afterwards, sedimentation in the north was interrupted in association with a remarkable southward shift in the location of the active depocenter as it is reflected by the sedimentary architecture and confirmed by radiocarbon dates. These sub-recent shifts in depocenters location are caused by migrations of the Senegal River mouth. During late Holocene times, the weakening of river discharge allowed the longshore currents to build up a chain of beach barriers which have forced the river mouth to shift southwards.

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A quality-controlled snow and meteorological dataset spanning the period 1 August 1993-31 July 2011 is presented, originating from the experimental station Col de Porte (1325 m altitude, Chartreuse range, France). Emphasis is placed on meteorological data relevant to the observation and modelling of the seasonal snowpack. In-situ driving data, at the hourly resolution, consist of measurements of air temperature, relative humidity, windspeed, incoming short-wave and long-wave radiation, precipitation rate partitioned between snow- and rainfall, with a focus on the snow-dominated season. Meteorological data for the three summer months (generally from 10 June to 20 September), when the continuity of the field record is not warranted, are taken from a local meteorological reanalysis (SAFRAN), in order to provide a continuous and consistent gap-free record. Data relevant to snowpack properties are provided at the daily (snow depth, snow water equivalent, runoff and albedo) and hourly (snow depth, albedo, runoff, surface temperature, soil temperature) time resolution. Internal snowpack information is provided from weekly manual snowpit observations (mostly consisting in penetration resistance, snow type, snow temperature and density profiles) and from a hourly record of temperature and height of vertically free ''settling'' disks. This dataset has been partially used in the past to assist in developing snowpack models and is presented here comprehensively for the purpose of multi-year model performance assessment. The data is placed on the PANGAEA repository (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.774249) as well as on the public ftp server ftp://ftp-cnrm.meteo.fr/pub-cencdp/.

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Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

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Marine spatial planning and ecological research call for high-resolution species distribution data. However, those data are still not available for most marine large vertebrates. The dynamic nature of oceanographic processes and the wide-ranging behavior of many marine vertebrates create further difficulties, as distribution data must incorporate both the spatial and temporal dimensions. Cetaceans play an essential role in structuring and maintaining marine ecosystems and face increasing threats from human activities. The Azores holds a high diversity of cetaceans but the information about spatial and temporal patterns of distribution for this marine megafauna group in the region is still very limited. To tackle this issue, we created monthly predictive cetacean distribution maps for spring and summer months, using data collected by the Azores Fisheries Observer Programme between 2004 and 2009. We then combined the individual predictive maps to obtain species richness maps for the same period. Our results reflect a great heterogeneity in distribution among species and within species among different months. This heterogeneity reflects a contrasting influence of oceanographic processes on the distribution of cetacean species. However, some persistent areas of increased species richness could also be identified from our results. We argue that policies aimed at effectively protecting cetaceans and their habitats must include the principle of dynamic ocean management coupled with other area-based management such as marine spatial planning.

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The Antarctic Pack Ice Seal (APIS) Program was initiated in 1994 to estimate the abundance of four species of Antarctic phocids: the crabeater seal Lobodon carcinophaga, Weddell seal Leptonychotes weddellii, Ross seal Ommatophoca rossii and leopard seal Hydrurga leptonyx and to identify ecological relationships and habitat use patterns. The Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean (the eastern sector of the Weddell Sea) was surveyed by research teams from Germany, Norway and South Africa using a range of aerial methods over five austral summers between 1996-1997 and 2000-2001. We used these observations to model densities of seals in the area, taking into account haul-out probabilities, survey-specific sighting probabilities and covariates derived from satellite-based ice concentrations and bathymetry. These models predicted the total abundance over the area bounded by the surveys (30°W and 10°E). In this sector of the coast, we estimated seal abundances of: 514 (95 % CI 337-886) x 10**3 crabeater seals, 60.0 (43.2-94.4) x 10**3 Weddell seals and 13.2 (5.50-39.7) x 10**3 leopard seals. The crabeater seal densities, approximately 14,000 seals per degree longitude, are similar to estimates obtained by surveys in the Pacific and Indian sectors by other APIS researchers. Very few Ross seals were observed (24 total), leading to a conservative estimate of 830 (119-2894) individuals over the study area. These results provide an important baseline against which to compare future changes in seal distribution and abundance.