A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Monthly Bonaire coral Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope data from 118 kyr ago (coral BON-5-D)

The end of the last interglacial period, ~118 kyr ago, was characterized by substantial ocean circulation and climate perturbations resulting from instabilities of polar ice sheets. These perturbations are crucial for a better understanding of future climate change. The seasonal temperature changes of the tropical ocean, however, which play an important role in seasonal climate extremes such as hurricanes, floods and droughts at the present day, are not well known for this period that led into the last glacial. Here we present a monthly resolved snapshot of reconstructed sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean for 117.7±0.8 kyr ago, using coral Sr/Ca and d18O records. We find that temperature seasonality was similar to today, which is consistent with the orbital insolation forcing. Our coral and climate model results suggest that temperature seasonality of the tropical surface ocean is controlled mainly by orbital insolation changes during interglacials.

Sea-surface temperature reconstruction of sediments from the North Pacific and North Atlantic

Holocene climate variability is investigated in the North Pacific and North Atlantic realms, using alkenone-derived sea-surface temperature (SST) records as well as a millennial scale simulation with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The alkenone SST data indicate a temperature increase over almost the entire North Pacific from 7 cal kyr BP to the present. A dipole pattern with a continuous cooling in the northeastern Atlantic and a warming in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the northern Red Sea is detected in the North Atlantic realm. Similarly, SST variations are opposite in sign between the northeastern Pacific and the northeastern Atlantic. A 2300 year long AOGCM climate simulation reveals a similar SST seesaw between the northeastern Pacific and the northeastern Atlantic on centennial time scales. Our analysis of the alkenone SST data and the model results suggests fundamental inter-oceanic teleconnections during the Holocene.

Stable isotope analysis and biomarkers of carbonates from the Columbia River in southwestern Washington, USA

Exotic limestone masses with silicified fossils, enclosed within deep-water marine siliciclastic sediments of the Early to Middle Miocene Astoria Formation, are exposed along the north shore of the Columbia River in southwestern Washington, USA. Samples from four localities were studied to clarify the origin and diagenesis of these limestone deposits. The bioturbated and reworked limestones contain a faunal assemblage resembling that of modern and Cenozoic deep-water methane-seeps. Five phases make up the paragenetic sequence: (1) micrite and microspar; (2) fibrous, banded and botryoidal aragonite cement, partially replaced by silica or recrystallized to calcite; (3) yellow calcite; (4) quartz replacing carbonate phases and quartz cement; and (5) equant calcite spar and pseudospar. Layers of pyrite frequently separate different carbonate phases and generations, indicating periods of corrosion. Negative d13Ccarbonate values as low as -37.6 per mill V-PDB reveal an uptake of methane-derived carbon. In other cases, d13Ccarbonate values as high as 7.1 per mill point to a residual, 13C-enriched carbon pool affected by methanogenesis. Lipid biomarkers include 13C-depleted, archaeal 2,6,10,15,19-pentamethylicosane (PMI; d13C: -128 per mill), crocetane and phytane, as well as various iso- and anteiso-carbon chains, most likely derived from sulphate-reducing bacteria. The biomarker inventory proves that the majority of the carbonates formed as a consequence of sulphate-dependent anaerobic oxidation of methane. Silicification of fossils and early diagenetic carbonate cements as well as the precipitation of quartz cement - also observed in other methane-seep limestones enclosed in sediments with abundant diatoms or radiolarians - is a consequence of a preceding increase of alkalinity due to anaerobic oxidation of methane, inducing the dissolution of silica skeletons. Once anaerobic oxidation of methane has ceased, the pH drops again and silica phases can precipitate.

10Be data for sediments from DSDP Leg 56 and ODP Leg 170

Sediment accretion and subduction at convergent margins play an important role in the nature of hazardous interplate seismicity (the seismogenic zone) and the subduction recycling of volatiles and continentally derived materials to the Earth's mantle. Identifying and quantifying sediment accretion, essential for a complete mass balance across the margin, can be difficult. Seismic images do not define the processes by which a prism was built, and cored sediments may show disturbed magnetostratigraphy and sparse biostratigraphy. This contribution reports the first use of cosmogenic 10Be depth profiles to define the origin and structural evolution of forearc sedimentary prisms. Biostratigraphy and 10Be model ages generally are in good agreement for sediments drilled at Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 434 in the Japan forearc, and support an origin by imbricate thrusting for the upper section. Forearc sediments from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1040 in Costa Rica lack good fossil or paleomagnetic age control above the decollement. Low and homogeneous 10Be concentrations show that the prism sediments are older than 3-4 Ma, and that the prism is either a paleoaccretionary prism or it formed largely from slump deposits of apron sediments. Low 10Be in Costa Rican lavas and the absence of frontal accretion imply deeper sediment underplating or subduction erosion.

Oxygen and silica flux from 9 multicorer profiles

Pore water profiles from 24 stations in the South Atlantic (located in the Guinea, Angola, Cape, Guyana, and Argentine basins) show good correlations of oxygen and silicon, suggesting microbially mediated dissolution of biogenic silica. We used simple analytical transport and reaction models to show the tight coupling of the reconstructed process kinetics of aerobic respiration and silicon regeneration. A generic transport and reaction model successfully reproduced the majority of Si pore water profiles from aerobic respiration rates, confirming that the dissolution of biogenic silica (BSi) occurs proportionally to O2 consumption. Possibly limited to well-oxygenated sediments poor in BSi, benthic Si fluxes can be inferred from O2 uptake with satisfactory accuracy. Compared to aerobic respiration kinetics, the solubility of BSi emerged as a less influential parameter for silicon regeneration. Understanding the role of bacteria for silicon regeneration requires further investigations, some of which are outlined. The proposed aerobic respiration control of benthic silicon cycling is suitable for benthic-pelagic models. The empirical relation of BSi dissolution to aerobic respiration can be used for regionalization assessments and estimates of the silicon budget to increase the understanding of global primary and export production patterns.

Mixed layer heat and salinity budgets during the onset of the 2011 Atlantic cold tongue

The mixed layer (ML) temperature and salinity changes in the central tropical Atlantic have been studied by a dedicated experiment (Cold Tongue Experiment (CTE)) carried out from May to July 2011. The CTE was based on two successive research cruises, a glider swarm, and moored observations. The acquired in situ data sets together with satellite, reanalysis, and assimilation model data were used to evaluate box-averaged ML heat and salinity budgets for two subregions: (1) the western equatorial Atlantic cold tongue (ACT) (23°-10°W) and (2) the region north of the ACT. The strong ML heat loss in the ACT region during the CTE was found to be the result of the balance of warming due to net surface heat flux and cooling due to zonal advection and diapycnal mixing. The northern region was characterized by weak cooling and the dominant balance of net surface heat flux and zonal advection. A strong salinity increase occurred at the equator, 10°W, just before the CTE. During the CTE, ML salinity in the ACT region slightly increased. Largest contributions to the ML salinity budget were zonal advection and the net surface freshwater flux. While essential for the ML heat budget in the ACT region, diapycnal mixing played only a minor role for the ML salinity budget. In the region north of the ACT, the ML freshened at the beginning of the CTE due to precipitation, followed by a weak salinity increase. Zonal advection changed sign contributing to ML freshening at the beginning of the CTE and salinity increase afterward.