Field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses to assess lava flow hazards at Mount Etna

Improving lava flow hazard assessment is one of the most important and challenging fields of volcanology, and has an immediate and practical impact on society. Here, we present a methodology for the quantitative assessment of lava flow hazards based on a combination of field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses. With the extensive data available on historic eruptions of Mt. Etna, going back over 2000 years, it has been possible to construct two hazard maps, one for flank and the other for summit eruptions, allowing a quantitative analysis of the most likely future courses of lava flows. The effective use of hazard maps of Etna may help in minimizing the damage from volcanic eruptions through correct land use in densely urbanized area with a population of almost one million people. Although this study was conducted on Mt. Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas.

Photographs of the Mount Meager, southwestern British Columbia

On August 6, 2010, a large (~50 Mm**3) debris avalanche occurred on the flank of Mount Meager in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. We studied the deposits to infer the morphodynamics of the landslide from initiation to emplacement. Structure from motion (SfM) photogrammetry, based on oblique photos taken with a standard SLR camera during a low helicopter traverse, was used to create high-resolution orthophotos and base maps. Interpretation of the images and maps allowed us to recognize two main rheological phases in the debris avalanche. Just below the source area, in the valley of Capricorn Creek, the landslide separated into two phases, one water-rich and more mobile, and the other water-poor and less mobile. The water-rich phase spread quickly, achieved high superelevation on the valley sides, and left distal scattered deposits. The main water-poor phase moved more slowly, did not superelevate, and formed a thick continuous deposit (up to ~30 m) on the valley floor. The water-poor flow deposit has structural features such as hummocks, brittle-ductile faults, and shear zones. Our study, based on a freshly emplaced deposit, advances understanding of large mass movements by showing that a single landslide can develop multiple rheology phases with different behaviours. Rheological evolution and separation of phases should always be taken into account to provide better risk assessment scenarios.

Tab. 1: Rb-Sr data on metasediments in the Shackleton Range

Summary: The stratigraphy of the Shackleton Range established by Stephenson (1966) and Clarkson (1972) was revised by results of the German Expedition GEISHA 1987/88. The "Turnpike Bluff Group" does not form a stratigraphic unit. The stratigraphic correlation of its formations is still a matter of discussion. The following four formations are presumed to belong to different units: The Stephenson Bastion Formation and Wyeth Heights Formation are probably of Late Precambrian age. The Late Precambrian Watts Needle Formation, which lies unconformably on the Read Group, is an independant unit which has to be separated from the "Turnpike Bluff Group". The Mount Wegener Formation has been thrusted over the Watts Needle Formation. Early Cambrian fossils (Oldhamia sp., Epiphyton sp., Botomaella (?) sp. and echinoderms) were found in the Mt. Wegener Formation in the Read Mountains. The Middle Cambrian trilobite shales on Mount Provender, which form the Haskard Highlands Formation, are possibly in faulted contact with the basement complex (Pioneers and Stratton Groups). They are overlain by the Blaiklock Glacier Group, for which an Ordovician age is indicated by trilobite tracks and trails, low inclination of the paleomagnetic field and the similarity to the basal units of the Table Mountain Quartzite in South Africa. The Watts Needle Formation represents epicontinental shelf sediments, the Mount Wegener Formation was deposited in a (continental) back-arc environment, and the Blaiklock Glacier Group is a typical molasse sediment of the Ross Orogen.

Dead Sea lake level for the last 260 ka

The rain regime of the Levant during the late Quaternary was controlled primarily by Mediterranean cyclonic systems associated with North Atlantic climate shifts. Lake levels in the Dead Sea basin have been robust recorders of the regional hydrology and generally indicate highstand (wet) conditions throughout glacial intervals and lowstands (dry) during interglacials. However, sporadic deposition of travertines and speleothems occurred in the Negev Desert and Arava Valley during past interglacials, suggesting intrusions of humidity from southern sources probably in association with enhanced activity of mid-latitude Red Sea synoptic troughs and/or low-latitude tropical plumes. The southerly incursions of wetness were superimposed on the long-term interglacial Levantine arid conditions, as reflected by the current prevailing hyperaridity, and could have had an important impact on human migra- tion through the Red Sea-Dead Sea corridor.