53 resultados para Hype Cycle Model


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A careful comparison is made between the most detailed records of sea level over the last glacial cycle, and two high-quality oxygen isotope records. One is a high-resolution benthonic record that contains superb detail but proves to record temperature change as well as ice volume; the other is a planktonic record from the west equatorial Pacific where the temperature effect may be minimal but where high resolution is not available. A combined record is generated which may be a better approximation to ice volume than was previously available. This approach cannot yet be applied to the whole Pleistocene. However, comparison of glacial extremes suggests that glacial extremes of stages 12 and 16 significantly exceeded the last glacial maximum as regards ice volume and hence as regards sea level lowering. Interglacial stages 7, 13, 15, 17 and 19 did not attain Holocene oxygen isotope values; possibly the sea did not reach its present level. It is unlikely that sea level was glacio-eustatically higher than present by more than a few metres during any interglacial of the past 2.5 million years.

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Changes in the Earth's orbit lead to changes in the seasonal and meridional distribution of insolation. We quantify the influence of orbitally induced changes on the seasonal temperature cycle in a transient simulation of the last 6000 years - from the mid-Holocene to today - using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) including a land surface model (JSBACH). The seasonal temperature cycle responds directly to the insolation changes almost everywhere. In the Northern Hemisphere, its amplitude decreases according to an increase in winter insolation and a decrease in summer insolation. In the Southern Hemisphere, the opposite is true. Over the Arctic Ocean, decreasing summer insolation leads to an increase in sea-ice cover. The insulating effect of sea ice between the ocean and the atmosphere leads to decreasing heat flux and favors more "continental" conditions over the Arctic Ocean in winter, resulting in strongly decreasing temperatures. Consequently, there are two competing effects: the direct response to insolation changes and a sea-ice insulation effect. The sea-ice insulation effect is stronger, and thus an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal temperature cycle over the Arctic Ocean occurs. This increase is strongest over the Barents Shelf and influences the temperature response over northern Europe. We compare our modeled seasonal temperatures over Europe to paleo reconstructions. We find better agreements in winter temperatures than in summer temperatures and better agreements in northern Europe than in southern Europe, since the model does not reproduce the southern European Holocene summer cooling inferred from the paleo reconstructions. The temperature reconstructions for northern Europe support the notion of the influence of the sea-ice insulation effect on the evolution of the seasonal temperature cycle.

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The effects of ocean acidification on the life-cycle stages of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi and their by light were examined. Calcifying diploid and noncalcifying haploid cells (Roscoff culture collection 1216 and 1217) were acclimated to present-day and elevated CO2 partial pressures (PCO2; 38.5 vs. 101.3 Pa, ., 380 vs. 1000 matm) under low and high light (50 vs. 300 mmol photons m-2 s-1). Growth rates as well as quotas and production rates of C and N were measured. Sources of inorganic C for biomass buildup were using a 14C disequilibrium assay. Photosynthetic O2 evolution was measured as a function of dissolved inorganic C and light by means of membrane-inlet mass spectrometry. The diploid stage responded to elevated PCO2 by shunting resources from the production of particulate inorganic C toward organic C yet keeping the production of total particulate C constant. As the effect of ocean acidification was stronger under low light, the diploid stage might be less affected by increased acidity when energy availability is high. The haploid stage maintained elemental composition and production rates under elevated PCO2. Although both life-cycle stages involve different ways of dealing with elevated PCO2, the responses were generally modulated by energy availability, being typically most pronounced under low light. Additionally, PCO2 responses resembled those induced by high irradiances, indicating that ocean acidification affects the interplay between energy-generating processes (photosynthetic light reactions) and processes competing for energy (biomass buildup and calcification). A conceptual model is put forward explaining why the magnitude of single responses is determined by energy availability.

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Today the deep western boundary current (DWBC) east of New Zealand is the most important route for deep water entering the Pacific Ocean. Large-scale changes in deep water circulation patterns are thought to have been associated with the development of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) close to the main source of bottom water for the DWBC. Here we reconstruct the changing speed of the southwest Pacific DWBC during the middle Miocene from ~15.5-12.5 Ma, a period of significant global ice accumulation associated with EAIS growth. Sortable silt mean grain sizes from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1123 reveal variability in the speed of the Pacific inflow on the timescale of the 41 kyr orbital obliquity cycle. Similar orbital period flow changes have recently been demonstrated for the Pleistocene epoch. Collectively, these observations suggest that a strong coupling between changes in the speed of the deep Pacific inflow and high-latitude climate forcing may have been a persistent feature of the global thermohaline circulation system for at least the past 15 Myr. Furthermore, long-term changes in flow speed suggest an intensification of the DWBC under an inferred increase in Southern Component Water production. This occurred at the same time as decreasing Tethyan outflow and major EAIS growth between ~15.5 and 13.5 Ma. These results provide evidence that a major component of the deep thermohaline circulation was associated with the middle Miocene growth of the EAIS and support the view that this time interval represents an important step in the development of the Neogene icehouse climate.

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Sporomorphs and dinoflagellate cysts from site GIK16867 in the northern Angola Basin record the vegetation history of the West African forest during the last 700 ka in relation to changes in salinity and productivity of the eastern Gulf of Guinea. During most cool and cold periods, the Afromontane forest, rather than the open grass-rich dry forest, expanded to lower altitudes partly replacing the lowland rain forest of the borderlands east of the Gulf of Guinea. Except in Stage 3, when oceanic productivity was high during a period of decreased atmospheric circulation, high oceanic productivity is correlated to strong winds. The response of marine productivity in the course of a climatic cycle, however, is earlier than that of wind vigour and makes wind-stress-induced oceanic upwelling in the area less likely. Monsoon variation is well illustrated by the pollen record of increased lowland rain forest that is paired to the dinoflagellate cyst record of decreased salinity forced by increased precipitation and run-off.

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The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

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In this study we present first results of a new model development, ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso, where we have incorporated the stable water isotopes H218O and HDO as tracers in the hydrological cycle of the coupled atmosphere-land surface model ECHAM5-JSBACH. The ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso model was run under present-day climate conditions at two different resolutions (T31L19, T63L31). A comparison between ECHAM5-JSBACH-wiso and ECHAM5-wiso shows that the coupling has a strong impact on the simulated temperature and soil wetness. Caused by these changes of temperature and the hydrological cycle, the d18O in precipitation also shows variations from -4 permil up to 4 permil. One of the strongest anomalies is shown over northeast Asia where, due to an increase of temperature, the d18O in precipitation increases as well. In order to analyze the sensitivity of the fractionation processes over land, we compare a set of simulations with various implementations of these processes over the land surface. The simulations allow us to distinguish between no fractionation, fractionation included in the evaporation flux (from bare soil) and also fractionation included in both evaporation and transpiration (from water transport through plants) fluxes. While the isotopic composition of the soil water may change for d18O by up to +8 permil:, the simulated d18O in precipitation shows only slight differences on the order of ±1 permil. The simulated isotopic composition of precipitation fits well with the available observations from the GNIP (Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation) database.