534 resultados para [JEL:E4] Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - Money and Interest Rates


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Marine ecosystems of the Southern Ocean are particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification. Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) is the key pelagic species of the region and its largest fishery resource. There is therefore concern about the combined effects of climate change, ocean acidification and an expanding fishery on krill and ultimately, their dependent predators-whales, seals and penguins. However, little is known about the sensitivity of krill to ocean acidification. Juvenile and adult krill are already exposed to variable seawater carbonate chemistry because they occupy a range of habitats and migrate both vertically and horizontally on a daily and seasonal basis. Moreover, krill eggs sink from the surface to hatch at 700-1,000 m, where the carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO2) in sea water is already greater than it is in the atmosphere. Krill eggs sink passively and so cannot avoid these conditions. Here we describe the sensitivity of krill egg hatch rates to increased CO2, and present a circumpolar risk map of krill hatching success under projected pCO2 levels. We find that important krill habitats of the Weddell Sea and the Haakon VII Sea to the east are likely to become high-risk areas for krill recruitment within a century. Furthermore, unless CO2 emissions are mitigated, the Southern Ocean krill population could collapse by 2300 with dire consequences for the entire ecosystem.

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Hole 887B of the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) comprises a 44 m (750 kyr) long continuous section recovered from the Patton-Murray Rise, an elevated plateau that is largely isolated from turbidite deposition. The Patton-Murray area is centered under the Alaska Gyre, a region characterized by the domal upwelling of nutrient-rich waters. Marked increases in productivity and rapid settling of biogenic matter are suggested throughout the section by the episodic accumulation of diatomaceous oozes up to ~1 m thick that are accompanied by barium enrichments. Significant delta13Corg maxima in the major diatomaceous bands suggest that mixedlayer [CO2(aq)] may have been drawn down significantly during some of the productivity events. The episodes of enhanced productivity at Site 887 occur synchronously with short-lived minima in planktonic foram delta18O, suggesting a direct link to low salinity, or less likely, warming, events in the Gulf of Alaska. There is no obvious explanation for the events, but they may be related to seasonal incursions of meltwater from Alaska. We speculate that episodic input of meltwater- or dust-borne iron from Asian or Alaskan sources may have promoted the extraordinary diatom production events recorded in the sedimentary record.

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Invasive species allow an investigation of trait retention and adaptations after exposure to new habitats. Recent work on corals from the Gulf of Aqaba (GoA) shows that tolerance to high temperature persists thousands of years after invasion, without any apparent adaptive advantage. Here we test whether thermal tolerance retention also occurs in another symbiont-bearing calcifying organism. To this end, we investigate the thermal tolerance of the benthic foraminifera Amphistegina lobifera from the GoA (29° 30.14167 N 34° 55.085 E) and compare it to a recent "Lessepsian invader population" from the Eastern Mediterranean (EaM) (32° 37.386 N, 34°55.169 E). We first established that the studied populations are genetically homogenous but distinct from a population in Australia, and that they contain a similar consortium of diatom symbionts, confirming their recent common descent. Thereafter, we exposed specimens from GoA and EaM to elevated temperatures for three weeks and monitored survivorship, growth rates and photophysiology. Both populations exhibited a similar pattern of temperature tolerance. A consistent reduction of photosynthetic dark yields was observed at 34°C and reduced growth was observed at 32°C. The apparent tolerance to sustained exposure to high temperature cannot have a direct adaptive importance, as peak summer temperatures in both locations remain <32°C. Instead, it seems that in the studied foraminifera tolerance to high temperature is a conservative trait and the EaM population retained this trait since its recent invasion. Such pre-adaptation to higher temperatures confers A. lobifera a clear adaptive advantage in shallow and episodically high temperature environments in the Mediterranean under further warming.

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This study includes the first information on the combined effect of low pH and raised temperature on egg production rate (EP), hatching success (HS), excretion and respiration of the Mediterranean copepod Acartia clausi. Adult individuals of A. clausi and fresh surface seawater were collected at a coastal station in Saronikos Gulf during April 2012. Four different conditions were applied: two different pH levels (present: 8.09 and future: 7.83) at two temperature values (present: 16°C and present+4 °C= 20°C). EP and HS success decreased significantly over the duration of exposure at future pH at both temperature conditions. However, the analysis of the combined effect of pH, T, chlorophyll a and the duration of the experiments on EP and HS revealed that ocean acidification had no discernible effect, whereas warming; food and the duration of exposure were more significant for the reproductive output of A. clausi. Temperature appeared to have a positive effect on respiration and excretion. Acidification had no clear effect on respiration, but a negative effect on the A. clausi excretion was observed. Acidification and warming resulted in the increase of the excretion rate and the increase was higher than that observed by warming only. Our findings showed that a direct effect of ocean acidification on copepod's vital rates was not obvious, except maybe in the case of excretion. Therefore, the combination of acidification with the ambient oligotrophic conditions and the warming could result in species being less able to allocate resources for coping with multiple stressors.

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To study the effects of temperature, salinity, and life processes (growth rates, size, metabolic effects, and physiological/genetic effects) on newly precipitated bivalve carbonate, we quantified shell isotopic chemistry of adult and juvenile animals of the intertidal bivalve Mytilus edulis (Blue mussel) collected alive from western Greenland and the central Gulf of Maine and cultured them under controlled conditions. Data for juvenile and adult M. edulis bivalves cultured in this study, and previously by Wanamaker et al. (2006, doi:10.1029/2005GC001189), yielded statistically identical paleotemperature relationships. On the basis of these experiments we have developed a species-specific paleotemperature equation for the bivalve M. edulis [T °C = 16.28 (±0.10) - 4.57 (±0.15) {d18Oc VPBD - d18Ow VSMOW} + 0.06 (±0.06) {d18Oc VPBD - d18Ow VSMOW}**2; r**2 = 0.99; N = 323; p < 0.0001]. Compared to the Kim and O'Neil (1997) inorganic calcite equation, M. edulis deposits its shell in isotope equilibrium (d18Ocalcite) with ambient water. Carbon isotopes (d13Ccalcite) from sampled shells were substantially more negative than predicted values, indicating an uptake of metabolic carbon into shell carbonate, and d13Ccalcite disequilibrium increased with increasing salinity. Sampled shells of M. edulis showed no significant trends in d18Ocalcite based on size, cultured growth rates, or geographic collection location, suggesting that vital effects do not affect d18Ocalcite in M. edulis. The broad modern and paleogeographic distribution of this bivalve, its abundance during the Holocene, and the lack of an intraspecies physiologic isotope effect demonstrated here make it an ideal nearshore paleoceanographic proxy throughout much of the North Atlantic Ocean.

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Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) recorded by alkenones and oxygen isotopes in the Alboran basin are used here to describe, at an unprecedented fine temporal resolution, the present interglaciation (PIG, initiated at 11.7 ka BP), the last interglaciation (LIG, onset approximately at 129 ka) and respective deglaciations. Similarities and dissimilarities in the progression of these periods are reviewed in comparison with ice cores and stalagmites. Cold spells coeval with the Heinrich events (H) described in the North Atlantic include multi-decadal scale oscillations not previously obvious (up to 4 °C in less than eight centuries within the stadials associated with H1 and H11, ca 133 ka and 17 ka respectively). These abrupt oscillations precede the accumulation of organic rich layers deposited when perihelion moves from alignment with NH spring equinox to the summer solstice, a reference for deglaciations. Events observed during the last deglaciation at 17 ka, 14.8 ka and 11.7 ka are reminiscent of events occurred during the penultimate deglaciation at ca 136 ka, 132 ka and 129 ka, respectively. The SST trend during the PIG is no more than 2 °C (from 20 °C to 18 °C; up to ?0.2 °C/ka). The trend is steeper during the LIG, i.e. up to a 5 °C change from the early interglaciation to immediately before the glacial inception (from 23 °C to 18 °C; up to -0.4 °C/ka). Events are superimposed upon a long term trend towards colder SSTs, beginning with SST maxima followed by temperate periods until perihelion aligned with the NH autumn equinox (before ca 5.3 ka for the PIG and 121 ka for the LIG). A cold spell of around eight centuries at 2.8 ka during the PIG was possibly mimicked during the LIG at ca 118 ka by a SST fall of around 1 °C in a millennium. These events led interglacial SST to stabilise at around 18 °C. The glacial inception, barely evident at the beginning ca 115 ka (North Atlantic event C25, after perihelion passage in the NH winter solstice), culminated with a SST drop of at least 2 °C in two millennia (event C24, ca 111 ka). The Little Ice Age (0.7 ka) also occurred after the latest perihelion passage in the NH winter solstice and could be an example of how a glacial pre-inception event following an interglaciation might be.

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Future warming is predicted to shift the Earth system into a mode with progressive increase and vigour of extreme climate events possibly stimulating other mechanisms that invigorate global warming. This study provides new data and modelling investigating climatic consequences and biogeochemical feedbacks that happened in a warmer world ~112 Myr ago. Our study focuses on the Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1b and explores how the Earth system responded to a moderate ~25,000 yr lasting climate perturbation that is modelled to be less than 1 °C in global average temperature. Using a new chronological model for OAE 1b we present high-resolution elemental and bulk carbon isotope records from DSDP Site 545 from Mazagan Plateau off NW Africa and combine this information with a coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. The simulations suggest that a perturbation at the onset of OAE 1b caused almost instantaneous warming of the atmosphere on the order of 0.3 °C followed by a longer (~45,000 yr) period of ~0.8 °C cooling. The marine records from DSDP Site 545 support that these moderate swings in global climate had immediate consequences for African continental supply of mineral matter and nutrients (phosphorous), subsequent oxygen availability, and organic carbon burial in the eastern subtropical Atlantic, however, without turning the ocean anoxic. The match between modelling results and stratigraphic isotopic data support previous studies [summarized in Jenkyns 2003, doi:10.1098/rsta.2003.1240] in that methane emission from marine hydrates, albeit moderate in dimension, may have been the trigger for OAE 1b, though we can not finally rule out alternative mechanisms. Following the hydrate mechanism a total of 1.15 * 10**18 g methane carbon (delta13C=-60 ?), equivalent to about 10% to the total modern gas hydrate inventory, generated the delta13Ccarb profile recorded in the section. Modelling suggests a combination of moderate-scale methane pulses supplemented by continuous methane emission at elevated levels over ~25,000 yr. The proposed mechanism, though difficult to finally confirm in the geological past, is arguably more likely to occur in a warmer world and apparently perturbs global climate and ocean chemistry almost instantaneously. This study shows that, once set-off, this mechanism can maintain Earth's climate in a perturbed mode over geological time leading to pronounced changes in regional climate.