532 resultados para Time series model
Resumo:
This work is based on a long time series of data collected in the well-preserved Bay of Calvi (Corsica island, Ligurian Sea, NW Mediterranean) between 1979 and 2011, which include physical characteristics (31 years), chlorophyll a (chl a, 15 years), and inorganic nutrients (13 years). Because samples were collected at relatively high frequencies, which ranged from daily to biweekly during the winter-spring period, it was possible to (1) evidence the key role of two interacting physical variables, i.e. water temperature and wind intensity, on nutrient replenishment and phytoplankton dynamics during the winter-spring period, (2) determine critical values of physical factors that explained interannual variability in the replenishment of surface nutrients and the winter-spring phytoplankton bloom, and (3) identify previously unrecognized characteristics of the planktonic ecosystem. Over the >30 year observation period, the main driver of nutrient replenishment and phytoplankton (chl a) development was the number of wind events (mean daily wind speed >5 m s-1) during the cold-water period (subsurface water <13.5°C). According to winter intensity, there were strong differences in both the duration and intensity of nutrient fertilization and phytoplankton blooms (chl a). The trophic character of the Bay of Calvi changed according to years, and ranged from very oligotrophic (i.e. subtropical regime, characterized by low seasonal variability) to mesotrophic (i.e. temperate regime, with a well-marked increase in nutrient concentrations and chl a during the winter-spring period) during mild and moderate winters, respectively. A third regime occurred during severe winters characterized by specific wind conditions (i.e. high frequency of northeasterly winds), when Mediterranean "high nutrient - low chlorophyll" conditions occurred as a result of enhanced crossshore exchanges and associated offshore export of the nutrient-rich water. There was no long-term trend (e.g. climatic) in either nutrient replenishment or the winter-spring phytoplankton bloom between 1979 and 2011, but both nutrients and chl a reflected interannual and decadal changes in winter intensity.
Resumo:
The development of the winter-spring phytoplankton bloom was investigated in the Bay of Calvi (Corsica, Ligurian Sea, northwestern Mediterranean) in 1979, 1986, 1988, 1997 and 1998. A drastic reduction of phytoplankton biomass was evidenced over the last 2 decades, in relation to long-term changes in climatic and environmental conditions. Between 1979 and 1998, the monthly averaged chlorophyll a concentrations at 1 m decreased by about 80% during February, March and April. Simultaneously, major changes to hydrodynamic conditions include warmer water, overall decrease of salinity at 10 m depth, longer periods of bright sunshine and lower wind stress. The changes in environmental conditions were large enough to affect the vertical stability of the water column during the winter-spring period and to reduce nutrient replenishment of the surface layer prior to the usual period of phytoplankton growth. Until 1986, the main factor driving nutrient replenishment was the winter upward mixing of nutrient-rich deep waters, while the progressive reduction of mixing from 1988 induced nutrient limitation of surface waters in the last decade. The following hypotheses on changes in the development of the winter-spring phytoplankton bloom are made: (1) Until 1986, phytoplankton peaks took place in relatively high-nutrient waters and were diatom-dominated. (2) Between 1986 and 1988, decreasing Si availability led to Si limitation which caused a reduction in diatom abundance. This resulted in the disappearance of the diatom-dominated pulses and in lower phytoplankton biomass and was accompanied by a shift toward non-siliceous phytoplankton. (3) In 1988, 1997 and 1998, decreasing nitrate availability led to nitrate limitation, thus explaining the progressive reduction in non-siliceous phytoplankton biomass. Other, associated changes in benthos assemblages and ichthyofauna are documented. The conclusions from the Bay of Calvi are extended to the whole western Corsican coast. This confirms that the Mediterranean reacts rapidly to external perturbations, which are driven by climate change in that particular area.