545 resultados para standard error


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Explanations of the glacial-interglacial variations in atmospheric pCO2 invoke a significant role for the deep ocean in the storage of CO2. Deep-ocean density stratification has been proposed as a mechanism to promote the storage of CO2 in the deep ocean during glacial times. A wealth of proxy data supports the presence of a "chemical divide" between intermediate and deep water in the glacial Atlantic Ocean, which indirectly points to an increase in deep-ocean density stratification. However, direct observational evidence of changes in the primary controls of ocean density stratification, i.e., temperature and salinity, remain scarce. Here, we use Mg/Ca-derived seawater temperature and salinity estimates determined from temperature-corrected d18O measurements on the benthic foraminifer Uvigerina spp. from deep and intermediate water-depth marine sediment cores to reconstruct the changes in density of sub-Antarctic South Atlantic water masses over the last deglaciation (i.e., 22-2 ka before present). We find that a major breakdown in the physical density stratification significantly lags the breakdown of the deep-intermediate chemical divide, as indicated by the chemical tracers of benthic foraminifer d13C and foraminifer/coral 14C. Our results indicate that chemical destratification likely resulted in the first rise in atmospheric pCO2, whereas the density destratification of the deep South Atlantic lags the second rise in atmospheric pCO2 during the late deglacial period. Our findings emphasize that the physical and chemical destratification of the ocean are not as tightly coupled as generally assumed.

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Planktonic foraminiferal faunas of the southeast Pacific indicate that sea surface temperatures (SST) have varied by as much as 8-10°C in the Peru Current, and by ?5-7°C along the equator, over the past 150,000 years. Changes in SST at times such as the Last Glacial Maximum reflect incursion of high-latitude species Globorotalia inflata and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma into the eastern boundary current and as far north as the equator. A simple heat budget model of the equatorial Pacific shows that observed changes in Peru Current advection can account for about half of the total variability in equatorial SSTs. The remaining changes in equatorial SST, which are likely related to local changes in upwelling or pycnocline depth, precede changes in polar climates as recorded by d18O. This partitioning of processes in eastern equatorial Pacific SST reveals that net ice-age cooling here reflects first a rapid response of equatorial upwelling to insolation, followed by a later response to changes in the eastern boundary current associated with high-latitude climate (which closely resembles variations in atmospheric CO2 as recorded in the Vostok ice core). Although precise mechanisms responsible for the equatorial upwelling component of climate change remain uncertain, one likely candidate that may operate independently of the ice sheets is insolation-driven changes in El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency. Early responses of equatorial SST detected both here and elsewhere highlight the sensitivity of tropical systems to small changes in seasonal insolation. The scale of tropical changes we have observed are substantially greater than model predictions, suggesting a need for further quantitative assessment of processes associated with long-term climate change.

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The North Sea autumn-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) stock consists of a set of different spawning components. The dynamics of the entire stock have been well characterized, but although time-series of larval abundance indices are available for the individual components, study of the dynamics at the component level has historically been hampered by missing observations and high sampling noise. A simple state-space statistical model is developed that is robust to these problems, gives a good fit to the data, and proves capable of both handling and predicting missing observations well. Furthermore, the sum of the fitted abundance indices across all components proves an excellent proxy for the biomass of the total stock, even though the model utilizes information at the individual-component level. The Orkney-Shetland component appears to have recovered faster from historic depletion events than the other components, whereas the Downs component has been the slowest. These differences give rise to changes in stock composition, which are shown to vary widely within a relatively short time. The modelling framework provides a valuable tool for studying and monitoring the dynamics of the individual components of the North Sea herring stock.

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A new radiolarian-based transfer function for sea surface temperature (SST) estimations has been developed from 23 taxa and taxa groups in 53 surface sediment samples recovered between 35° and 72°S in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. For the selection of taxa and taxa groups ecological information from water column studies was considered. The transfer function allows the estimation of austral summer SST (December-March) ranging between -1 and 18°C with a standard error of estimate of 1.2°C. SST estimates from selected late Pleistocene squences were sucessfully compared with independend paleotemperature estimates derived from a diatom transfer function. This shows that radiolarians provide an excellent tool for paleotemperature reconstructions in Pleistocene sediments of the Southern Ocean.

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Tropical scleractinian corals are particularly vulnerable to global warming as elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) disrupt the delicate balance between the coral host and their algal endosymbionts, leading to symbiont expulsion, mass bleaching and mortality. While satellite sensing of SST has proven a good predictor of coral bleaching at the regional scale, there are large deviations in bleaching severity and mortality on the local scale, which are only poorly understood. Here, we show that internal waves play a major role in explaining local coral bleaching and mortality patterns in the Andaman Sea. In spite of a severe region-wide SST anomaly in May 2010, frequent upslope intrusions of cold sub-pycnocline waters due to breaking large amplitude internal waves (LAIW) alleviated heating and mitigated coral bleaching and mortality in shallow LAIW-exposed waters. In LAIW-sheltered waters, by contrast, bleaching susceptible species suffered severe bleaching and total mortality. These findings suggest that LAIW, which are ubiquitous in tropical stratified waters, benefit coral reefs during thermal stress and provide local refugia for bleaching susceptible corals. The swash zones of LAIW may thus be important, so far overlooked, conservation areas for the maintainance of coral diversity in a warming climate. The consideration of LAIW can significantly improve coral bleaching predictions and can provide a valuable tool for coral reef conservation and management.

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Breeding individuals enter an emergency life-history stage when their body reserves reach a minimum threshold. Consequently, they redirect current activity toward survival, leading to egg abandonment in birds. Corticosterone (CORT) is known to promote this stage. How and to what extent CORT triggers egg abandonment when breeding is associated with prolonged fasting, however, requires further investigation. We manipulated free-living male Adelie penguins with CORT-pellets before their laying period. We then examined their behavioral response with respect to nest abandonment in parallel with their prolactin levels (regulating parental care), and the subsequent effects of treatment on breeding success in relieved birds. Exogenous CORT triggered nest abandonment in 60% of the treated penguins -14 days after treatment and induced a concomitant decline in prolactin levels. Interestingly, prolactin levels in treated penguins that did not abandon their nest were higher at the point of implantation and also after being relieved by females, when compared with abandoning penguins. Among successful birds, the treatment did not affect the number of chicks, nor the brood mass. Our results show the involvement of CORT in the decision-making process regarding egg abandonment in Adelie penguins when incubation is associated with a natural long fast. However, we suggest that CORT alone is not sufficient to trigger nest abandonment but that 1) prolactin levels need to reach a low threshold value, and 2) a rise in proteolysis (i.e. utilization of protein as main energy substrate) seems also to be required.

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Permafrost dynamics play an important role in high-latitude peatland carbon balance and are key to understanding the future response of soil carbon stocks. Permafrost aggradation can control the magnitude of the carbon feedback in peatlands through effects on peat properties. We compiled peatland plant macrofossil records for the northern permafrost zone (515 cores from 280 sites) and classified samples by vegetation type and environmental class (fen, bog, tundra and boreal permafrost, thawed permafrost). We examined differences in peat properties (bulk density, carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and organic matter content, C/N ratio) and C accumulation rates among vegetation types and environmental classes.