82 resultados para stock order flow model


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Ice cores from outside the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are difficult to date because of seasonal melting and multiple sources (terrestrial, marine, biogenic and anthropogenic) of sulfates deposited onto the ice. Here we present a method of volcanic sulfate extraction that relies on fitting sulfate profiles to other ion species measured along the cores in moving windows in log space. We verify the method with a well dated section of the Belukha ice core from central Eurasia. There are excellent matches to volcanoes in the preindustrial, and clear extraction of volcanic peaks in the post-1940 period when a simple method based on calcium as a proxy for terrestrial sulfate fails due to anthropogenic sulfate deposition. We then attempt to use the same statistical scheme to locate volcanic sulfate horizons within three ice cores from Svalbard and a core from Mount Everest. Volcanic sulfate is <5% of the sulfate budget in every core, and differences in eruption signals extracted reflect the large differences in environment between western, northern and central regions of Svalbard. The Lomonosovfonna and Vestfonna cores span about the last 1000 years, with good extraction of volcanic signals, while Holtedahlfonna which extends to about AD1700 appears to lack a clear record. The Mount Everest core allows clean volcanic signal extraction and the core extends back to about AD700, slightly older than a previous flow model has suggested. The method may thus be used to extract historical volcanic records from a more diverse geographical range than hitherto.

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Continuous sea salt and mineral dust aerosol records have been studied on the two EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) deep ice cores. The joint use of these records from opposite sides of the East Antarctic plateau allows for an estimate of changes in dust transport and emission intensity as well as for the identification of regional differences in the sea salt aerosol source. The mineral dust flux records at both sites show a strong coherency over the last 150 kyr related to dust emission changes in the glacial Patagonian dust source with three times higher dust fluxes in the Atlantic compared to the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean (SO). Using a simple conceptual transport model this indicates that transport can explain only 40% of the atmospheric dust concentration changes in Antarctica, while factor 5-10 changes occurred. Accordingly, the main cause for the strong glacial dust flux changes in Antarctica must lie in environmental changes in Patagonia. Dust emissions, hence environmental conditions in Patagonia, were very similar during the last two glacials and interglacials, respectively, despite 2-4 °C warmer temperatures recorded in Antarctica during the penultimate interglacial than today. 2-3 times higher sea salt fluxes found in both ice cores in the glacial compared to the Holocene are difficult to reconcile with a largely unchanged transport intensity and the distant open ocean source. The substantial glacial enhancements in sea salt aerosol fluxes can be readily explained assuming sea ice formation as the main sea salt aerosol source with a significantly larger expansion of (summer) sea ice in the Weddell Sea than in the Indian Ocean sector. During the penultimate interglacial, our sea salt records point to a 50% reduction of winter sea ice coverage compared to the Holocene both in the Indian and Atlantic Ocean sector of the SO. However, from 20 to 80 ka before present sea salt fluxes show only very subdued millennial changes despite pronounced temperature fluctuations, likely due to the large distance of the sea ice salt source to our drill sites.

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Ice-rafting evidence for a '1500-year cycle' sparked considerable debate on millennial-scale climate change and the role of solar variability. Here, we reinterpret the last 70,000 years of the subpolar North Atlantic record, focusing on classic DSDP Site 609, in the context of newly available raw data, the latest radiocarbon calibration (Marine09) and ice core chronology (GICC05), and a wider range of statistical methodologies. A ~1500-year oscillation is primarily limited to the short glacial Stage 4, the age of which is derived solely from an ice flow model (ss09sea), subject to uncertainty, and offset most from the original chronology. Results from the most well-dated, younger interval suggest that the original 1500 ± 500 year cycle may actually be an admixture of the ~1000 and ~2000 cycles that are observed within the Holocene at multiple locations. In Holocene sections these variations are coherent with 14C and 10Be estimates of solar variability. Our new results suggest that the '1500-year cycle' may be a transient phenomenon whose origin could be due, for example, to ice sheet boundary conditions for the interval in which it is observed. We therefore question whether it is necessary to invoke such exotic explanations as heterodyne frequencies or combination tones to explain a phenomenon of such fleeting occurrence that is potentially an artifact of arithmetic averaging.

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A set of numerical equations is developed to estimate past sea surface temperatures (SST) from fossil Antarctic diatoms. These equations take into account both the biogeographic distribution and experimentally derived silica dissolution. The data represent a revision and expansion of a floral data base used previously and includes samples resulting from progressive opal dissolution experiments. Factor analysis of 166 samples (124 Holocene core top and 42 artificial samples) resolved four factors. Three of these factors depend on the water mass distribution (one Subantarctic and two Antarctic assemblages); factor 4 corresponds to a 'dissolution assemblage'. Inclusion of this factor in the data analysis minimizes the effect of opal dissolution on the assemblages and gives accurate estimates of SST over a wide range of biosiliceous dissolution. A transfer function (DTF 166/34/4) is derived from the distribution of these factors versus summer SST. Its standard error is +/- 1°C in the -1 to +10 °C summer temperature range. This transfer function is used to estimate SST changes in two southern ocean cores (43°S and 55°S) which cover the last climatic cycle. The time scale is derived from the changes in foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotopic ratios. The reconstructed SST records present strong analogies with the air temperature record over Antarctica at the Vostok site, derived from changes in the isotopic ratio of the ice. This similarity may be used to compare the oceanic isotope stratigraphy and the Vostok time scale derived from ice flow model. The oceanic time scale, if taken at face value, would indicate that large changes in ice accumulation rates occurred between warm and cold periods.

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