Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Pollen and macrofossils profiles and age determination from the Pittsburg Basin in the lowlands of south-central Illinois

Pollen and macrofossil evidence for the nature of the vegetation during glacial and interglacial periods in the regions south of the Wisconsinan ice margin is still very scarce. Modern opinions concerning these problems are therefore predominantly derived from geological evidence only or are extrapolated from pollen studies of late Wisconsinan deposits. Now for the first time pollen and macrofossil analyses are available from south-central Illinois covering the Holocene, the entire Wisconsinan, and most probably also Sangamonian and late Illinoian time. The cores studied came from three lakes, which originated as kettle holes in glacial drift of Illinoian age near Vandalia, Fayette County. The Wisconsinan ice sheet approached the sites from the the north to within about 60 km distance only. One of the profiles (Pittsburg Basin) probably reaches back to the late Illinoian (zone 1), which was characterized by forests with much Picea. Zone 2, most likely of Sangamonian age, represents a period of species-rich deciduous forests, which must have been similar to the ones that thrive today south and southeast of the prairie peninsula. During the entire Wisconsinan (14C dates ranging from 38,000 to 21,000 BP) thermophilous deciduous trees like Quercus, Carya, and Ulmus occurred in the region, although temporarily accompanied by tree genera with a more northerly modern distribution, such as Picea, which entered and then left south-central Illinois during the Woodfordian. Thus it is evident that arctic climatic conditions did not prevail in the lowlands of south-central Illinois (about 38°30' lat) during the Wisconsinan, even at the time of the maximum glaciation, the Woodfordian. The Wisconsinan was, however, not a period of continuous forest. The pollen assemblages of zone 3 (Altonian) indicate prairie with stands of trees, and in zone 4 the relatively abundant Artemisia pollen indicates the existence of open vegetation and stands of deciduous trees, Picea, and Pinus. True tundra may have existed north of the sites, but if so its pollen rain apparently is marked by pollen from nearby stands of trees. After the disappearance of Pinus and Picea at about 14,000 BP (estimated!), there developed a mosaic of prairies and stands of Quercus, Carya, and other deciduous tree genera (zone 5). This type of vegetation persisted until it was destroyed by cultivation during the 19th and 20th century. Major vegetational changes are not indicated in the pollen diagram for the late Wisconsinan and the Holocene. The dating of zones 1 and 2 is problematical because the sediments are beyond the14C range and because of the lack of stratigraphic evidence. The zones dated as Illinoian and Sangamonian could also represent just a Wisconsinan stadial and interstadial. This possibility, however, seems to be contradicted by the late glacial and interglacial character of the forest vegetation of that time.

Discarge compilation from The Global River Discharge (RivDIS) Project

The Global River Discharge (RivDIS) data set contains monthly discharge measurements for 1018 stations located throughout the world. The period of record varies widely from station to station, with a mean of 21.5 years. These data were digitized from published UNESCO archives by Charles Voromarty, Balaze Fekete, and B.A. Tucker of the Complex Systems Research Center (CSRC) at the University of New Hampshire. River discharge is typically measured through the use of a rating curve that relates local water level height to discharge. This rating curve is used to estimate discharge from the observed water level. The rating curves are periodically rechecked and recalibrated through on-site measurement of discharge and river stage.

(Table 3) Pollen analytical and carpological record of the outcrop Hölle below Dwadieden Park, Rügen Island

Pollen analyses and 14C-datings were carried out on two late glacial profiles from Ruegen Island, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern at the southwestern Baltic coast. The palaeoclimatic and palaeoecologic interpretations were supported by carpological investigations. The organogenic deposits of the 'Hoelle' outcrop near Dwasieden Park were chosen because of their unique stratigraphic position, which according to PANZIG (1989), lay under a m3m-Glacial Till of the Mecklenburg Advance (W3). The results indicated that the initial phase of the late glacial sedimentation in a relatively small and asymmetrical lake basin (in comparison with the larger Nieder- and Credner lake to the southwest), probably had its origin in the older Alleroed (II a) after FIRBAS (1949). The basal clastic sediments were rapidly followed by peat deposits and later, due to a rising water table, by muds rich in organic matter. The area was covered with sparse Betula-(Pinus) forests having heliophilous late-glacial elements typical of the surrounding areas during the younger Alleroed (II b). With the climatic change to colder and drier conditions at the beginning of the Younger Dryas (III), the vegetation decreased and enhanced erosional processes led to the fill up of the depression with fine clastic sediments. The intense relief differences of the surroundings coupled with high water saturation in the sediments led to solifluction in the m3m-Glacial Till and its placement discordantly over the organogenic sequence.