75 resultados para Natural Catastrophe, Property Insurance, Loss Distribution, Truncated Data, Ruin Probability
Resumo:
The increase in global mean temperatures resulting from climate change has wide reaching consequences for the earth's ecosystems and other natural systems. Many studies have been devoted to evaluating the distribution and effects of these changes. We go a step further and evaluate global changes to the heat index, a measure of temperature as perceived by humans. Heat index, which is computed from temperature and relative humidity, is more important than temperature for the health of humans and other animals. Even in cases where the heat index does not reach dangerous levels from a health perspective, it has been shown to be an important factor in worker productivity and thus in economic productivity. We compute heat index from dewpoint temperature and absolute temperature 2 m above ground from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the years 1979-2013. The data is provided aggregated to daily minima, means and maxima. Furthermore, the data is temporally aggregated to monthly and yearly values and spatially aggregated to the level of countries after being weighted by population density in order to demonstrate its usefulness for the analysis of its impact on human health and productivity. The resulting data deliver insights into the spatiotemporal development of near-ground heat index during the course of the past 3 decades. It is shown that the impact of changing heat index is unevenly distributed through space and time, affecting some areas differently than others. The likelihood of dangerous heat index events has increased globally. Also, heat index climate groups that would formerly be expected closer to the tropics have spread latitudinally to include areas closer to the poles. The data can serve in future studies as a basis for evaluating and understanding the evolution of heat index in the course of climate change, as well as its impact on human health and productivity.
Resumo:
The loss of water in a desiccating atmosphere (c.40% r.h. at 10°C) and uptake of water from a saturated atmosphere (100% r.h. at 10°C) was recorded at intervals over periods of many hours or days in the dominant mosses and macroiichens occurring near the Australian Casey Station. Wilkes Land, continental Antarctica. While major differences exist in the water holding capacity and rates of water loss between mosses and lichens, the minimum levels attained after prolonged exposure to desiccating conditions are remarkably similar. By contrast, the volume of water absorbed from a saturated atmosphere is very similar in both groups of cryptogams. Morphological and anatomical characters are responsible for many of the differences, both between species, and within species exhibiting different growth features. Thus, significantly larger amounts of water are held by colonies of Bryum algens with a dense tomentum of rhizoids than those with sparse rhizoids; similarly, the rhizinate Umbilicaria aprina held a greater volume of water than the erhizinate U. decussata. The filamentous mat form of Alectoria mimiscula permits a much higher water content to be attained than in the coarser fruticose forms of Usnea sphacelata and U. antarctica. The dense shoot arrangement in Schistidium antarcticum accounts for the high water holding capacity in the hydric turf form whereas the less densely packed shoots and thicker cell walls of the xeric cushion form maintain a lower water content. The rate of water loss (as percentage dry weight) was much faster in the turf form of Schistidium and tomenlose form of Bryum, although this trend was reversed when expressed as percentage of the initial water content. Minimal water contents arc achieved by the lichens in desiccating conditions within 6-12 hours, whereas the mosses take several times longer. The water relations characteristics of these cryptogams are considered in the light of their distribution in the field and of their metabolic activity under prevailing Antarctic conditions.
Resumo:
Fine-grained sediment depocenters on continental shelves are of increased scientific interest since they record environmental changes sensitively. A north-south elongated mud depocenter extends along the Senegalese coast in mid-shelf position. Shallow-acoustic profiling was carried out to determine extent, geometry and internal structures of this sedimentary body. In addition, four sediment cores were retrieved with the main aim to identify how paleoclimatic signals and coastal changes have controlled the formation of this mud depocenter. A general paleoclimatic pattern in terms of fluvial input appears to be recorded in this depositional archive. Intervals characterized by high terrigenous input, high sedimentation rates and fine grain sizes occur roughly contemporaneously in all cores and are interpreted as corresponding to intensified river discharge related to more humid conditions in the hinterland. From 2750 to 1900 and from 1000 to 700 cal a BP, wetter conditions are recorded off Senegal, an observation which is in accordance with other records from NW-Africa. Nevertheless, the three employed proxies (sedimentation rate, grain size and elemental distribution) do not always display consistent inter-core patterns. Major differences between the individual core records are attributed to sediment remobilization which was linked to local hydrographic variations as well as reorganizations of the coastal system. The Senegal mud belt is a layered inhomogeneous sedimentary body deposited on an irregular erosive surface. Early Holocene deceleration in the rate of the sea-level rise could have enabled initial mud deposition on the shelf. These favorable conditions for mud deposition occur coevally with a humid period over NW-Africa, thus, high river discharge. Sedimentation started preferentially in the northern areas of the mud belt. During mid-Holocene, a marine incursion led to the formation of an embayment. Afterwards, sedimentation in the north was interrupted in association with a remarkable southward shift in the location of the active depocenter as it is reflected by the sedimentary architecture and confirmed by radiocarbon dates. These sub-recent shifts in depocenters location are caused by migrations of the Senegal River mouth. During late Holocene times, the weakening of river discharge allowed the longshore currents to build up a chain of beach barriers which have forced the river mouth to shift southwards.
Resumo:
Ocean acidification (OA) is not an isolated threat, but acts in concert with other impacts on ecosystems and species. Coastal marine invertebrates will have to face the synergistic interactions of OA with other global and local stressors. One local factor, common in coastal environments, is trace element contamination. CO2 vent sites are extensively studied in the context of OA and are often considered analogous to the oceans in the next few decades. The CO2 vent found at Levante Bay (Vulcano, NE Sicily, Italy) also releases high concentrations of trace elements to its surrounding seawater, and is therefore a unique site to examine the effects of long-term exposure of nearby organisms to high pCO2 and trace element enrichment in situ. The sea anemone Anemonia viridis is prevalent next to the Vulcano vent and does not show signs of trace element poisoning/stress. The aim of our study was to compare A. viridis trace element profiles and compartmentalization between high pCO2 and control environments. Rather than examining whole anemone tissue, we analyzed two different body compartments-the pedal disc and the tentacles, and also examined the distribution of trace elements in the tentacles between the animal and the symbiotic algae. We found dramatic changes in trace element tissue concentrations between the high pCO2/high trace element and control sites, with strong accumulation of iron, lead, copper and cobalt, but decreased concentrations of cadmium, zinc and arsenic proximate to the vent. The pedal disc contained substantially more trace elements than the anemone's tentacles, suggesting the pedal disc may serve as a detoxification/storage site for excess trace elements. Within the tentacles, the various trace elements displayed different partitioning patterns between animal tissue and algal symbionts. At both sites iron was found primarily in the algae, whereas cadmium, zinc and arsenic were primarily found in the animal tissue. Our data suggests that A. viridis regulates its internal trace element concentrations by compartmentalization and excretion and that these features contribute to its resilience and potential success at the trace element-rich high pCO2 vent.
Resumo:
Calcifying foraminifera are expected to be endangered by ocean acidification; however, the response of a complete community kept in natural sediment and over multiple generations under controlled laboratory conditions has not been constrained to date. During 6 months of incubation, foraminiferal assemblages were kept and treated in natural sediment with pCO2-enriched seawater of 430, 907, 1865 and 3247 µatm pCO2. The fauna was dominated by Ammonia aomoriensis and Elphidium species, whereas agglutinated species were rare. After 6 months of incubation, pore water alkalinity was much higher in comparison to the overlying seawater. Consequently, the saturation state of Omega calc was much higher in the sediment than in the water column in nearly all pCO2 treatments and remained close to saturation. As a result, the life cycle (population density, growth and reproduction) of living assemblages varied markedly during the experimental period, but was largely unaffected by the pCO2 treatments applied. According to the size-frequency distribution, we conclude that foraminifera start reproduction at a diameter of 250 µm. Mortality of living Ammonia aomoriensis was unaffected, whereas size of large and dead tests decreased with elevated pCO2 from 285 µm (pCO2 from 430 to 1865 µatm) to 258 µm (pCO2 3247 µatm). The total organic content of living Ammonia aomoriensis has been determined to be 4.3% of CaCO3 weight. Living individuals had a calcium carbonate production rate of 0.47 g/m**2/a, whereas dead empty tests accumulated a rate of 0.27 g /m**2/a. Although Omega calc was close to 1, approximately 30% of the empty tests of Ammonia aomoriensis showed dissolution features at high pCO2 of 3247 µatm during the last 2 months of incubation. In contrast, tests of the subdominant species, Elphidium incertum, stayed intact. Our results emphasize that the sensitivity to ocean acidification of the endobenthic foraminifera Ammonia aomoriensis in their natural sediment habitat is much lower compared to the experimental response of specimens isolated from the sediment.
Resumo:
Benthic foraminiferal data from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1098 indicate significant changes in deep-water conditions of the Palmer Deep, western Antarctic Peninsula margin, throughout the Holocene (13 ka to present). The earliest Holocene represents a period of transition from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Cold bottom waters, similar to saline shelf water (SSW), dominated the middle Holocene. The late Holocene in the Palmer Deep has been characterized by alternating dominance of circumpolar deep water (CDW) and saline shelf water. These changes have global oceanographic and climatic implications. We suggest that the middle Holocene bottom-water record, in the absence of circumpolar deep water on the western Antarctic Peninsula shelf, indicates high saline shelf water production and/or weakened circumpolar deep water production during the middle Holocene climatic optimum. The late Holocene benthic foraminiferal record indicates rapidly fluctuating sea-ice conditions and may indicate a teleconnection between the South Pacific and Southern Ocean, thus having implications related to the Southern Oscillation Index.
Resumo:
Understanding species distribution patterns and the corresponding environmental determinants is a crucial step in the development of effective strategies for the conservation and management of plant communities and ecosystems. Therefore, a central prerequisite is the biogeographical and macroecological analysis of factors and processes that determine contemporary, potential, as well as future geographic distribution of species. This thesis has been conducted in the framework of the BIOMAPS-BIOTA project at the Nees Institute of Biodiversity of Plants, which was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The study investigated patterns of plants species richness and phytogeographic regions under contemporary environmental conditions and forecasted future climate change in the area of West Africa covering five countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo. Firstly, geographic patterns of vascular plant species richness have been depicted at a relatively fine spatial resolution based on the potential distribution of 3,393 species. Species richness is closely related to the steep climatic gradient existing in the region with a high concentration of species in the most humid areas in the south and decreases towards the northern drier areas. The investigation of the effectiveness of the existing network of protected areas shows an overall good coverage of species in the study area. However, the proportion of covered species is considerably lower at national extent for some countries, thus calling for more protected areas in order to cover adequately a maximum number of plants species in these countries. Secondly, based on the potential distribution range of vascular plant species, seven phytogeographic regions have been delineated that broadly reflect the vegetation zones as defined by White (1983). However notable differences to the delineation of White (1983) occur at the margins of some regions. Corresponding to a general southward shifted of all regions. And expansion of the Sahel vegetation zone is observed in the north, while the rainforest zone is decreased in the very south.This is alarming since the rainforest shelters a high number of species and a high proportion of range-restricted or endemic species, despite their relatively small extent compared to the other regions. Finally, the evaluation of the potential impact of climate change on plant species richness in the study area, results in a severe loss of future suitable habitat for up to 50% of species per grid cell, particularly in the rainforest region. Moreover, the analysis of the possible shift of phytogeographic regions shows in general a strong deterioration of the West African rainforest. In contrast the drier areas are expanding continuously, although a slight gain in species number can be observed in some particular regions. The overall lesson to retain from the results of this study is that the West African rainforest should be fixed as a high priority area for the conservation of biodiversity of plants, since it is subject to severe contemporary and projected future threats.
Resumo:
A natural pH gradient caused by marine CO2 seeps off Vulcano Island (Italy) was used to assess the effects of ocean acidification on coccolithophores, which are abundant planktonic unicellular calcifiers. Such seeps are used as natural laboratories to study the effects of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems, since they cause long-term changes in seawater carbonate chemistry and pH, exposing the organisms to elevated CO2 concentrations and therefore mimicking future scenarios. Previous work at CO2 seeps has focused exclusively on benthic organisms. Here we show progressive depletion of 27 coccolithophore species, in terms of cell concentrations and diversity, along a calcite saturation gradient from Omega calcite 6.4 to <1. Water collected close to the main CO2 seeps had the highest concentrations of malformed Emiliania huxleyi. These observations add to a growing body of evidence that ocean acidification may benefit some algae but will likely cause marine biodiversity loss, especially by impacting calcifying species, which are affected as carbonate saturation falls.
Resumo:
The diabases cut across the ophiolites as parallel and variably thick dyke-swarms. Geochemistry of the diabases reveals three distinct groups, including a) supra-subduction zone (SSZ) type, which is characterized by marked Nb-anomaly and normal mid-ocean ridge basalt (N-MORB) like HFSE distribution, b) enriched MORB (E-MORB) type, showing some degree of enrichment relative to N-MORB, c) oceanic-island basalt (OIB) type with characteristic hump-backed trace element patterns, coupled with fractionated REE distribution.