Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Impact of atmospheric pCO2, seawater temperature, and calcification rate on the delta 18O and delta 13C composition of echinoid calcite (Echinometra viridis)

The tropical echinoid Echinometra viridis was reared in controlled laboratory experiments at temperatures of approximately 20°C and 30°C to mimic winter and summer temperatures and at carbon dioxide (CO2) partial pressures of approximately 487 ppm-v and 805 ppm-v to simulate current and predicted-end-of-century levels. Spine material produced during the experimental period and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of the corresponding culture solutions were then analyzed for stable oxygen (delta 18Oe, delta 18ODIC) and carbon (The tropical echinoid Echinometra viridis was reared in controlled laboratory experiments at temperatures of approximately 20°C and 30°C to mimic winter and summer temperatures and at carbon dioxide (CO2) partial pressures of approximately 487 ppm-v and 805 ppm-v to simulate current and predicted-end-of-century levels. Spine material produced during the experimental period and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of the corresponding culture solutions were then analyzed for stable oxygen (delta18Oe, delta18ODIC) and carbon (delta13Ce, delta13CDIC) isotopic composition. Fractionation of oxygen stable isotopes between the echinoid spines and DIC of their corresponding culture solutions (delta18O = delta18Oe - delta18ODIC) was significantly inversely correlated with seawater temperature but not significantly correlated with atmospheric pCO2. Fractionation of carbon stable isotopes between the echinoid spines and DIC of their corresponding culture solutions (Delta delta13C = delta13Ce - delta13CDIC) was significantly positively correlated with pCO2 and significantly inversely correlated with temperature, with pCO2 functioning as the primary factor and temperature moderating the pCO2-delta13C relationship. Echinoid calcification rate was significantly inversely correlated with both delta18O and delta13C, both within treatments (i.e., pCO2 and temperature fixed) and across treatments (i.e., with effects of pCO2 and temperature controlled for through ANOVA). Therefore, calcification rate and potentially the rate of co-occurring dissolution appear to be important drivers of the kinetic isotope effects observed in the echinoid spines. Study results suggest that echinoid delta18O monitors seawater temperature, but not atmospheric pCO2, and that echinoid delta13C monitors atmospheric pCO2, with temperature moderating this relationship. These findings, coupled with echinoids' long and generally high-quality fossil record, supports prior assertions that fossil echinoid delta18O is a viable archive of paleo-seawater temperature throughout Phanerozoic time, and that delta13C merits further investigation as a potential proxy of paleo-atmospheric pCO2. However, the apparent impact of calcification rate on echinoid delta18O and delta13C suggests that paleoceanographic reconstructions derived from these proxies in fossil echinoids could be improved by incorporating the effects of growth rate.13Ce, delta13CDIC) isotopic composition. Fractionation of oxygen stable isotopes between the echinoid spines and DIC of their corresponding culture solutions (delta18O = delta18Oe - delta18ODIC) was significantly inversely correlated with seawater temperature but not significantly correlated with atmospheric pCO2. Fractionation of carbon stable isotopes between the echinoid spines and DIC of their corresponding culture solutions (delta13C = delta13Ce - delta13CDIC) was significantly positively correlated with pCO2 and significantly inversely correlated with temperature, with pCO2 functioning as the primary factor and temperature moderating the pCO2-delta13C relationship. Echinoid calcification rate was significantly inversely correlated with both delta18O and delta13C, both within treatments (i.e., pCO2 and temperature fixed) and across treatments (i.e., with effects of pCO2 and temperature controlled for through ANOVA). Therefore, calcification rate and potentially the rate of co-occurring dissolution appear to be important drivers of the kinetic isotope effects observed in the echinoid spines. Study results suggest that echinoid delta18O monitors seawater temperature, but not atmospheric pCO2, and that echinoid delta13C monitors atmospheric pCO2, with temperature moderating this relationship. These findings, coupled with echinoids' long and generally high-quality fossil record, supports prior assertions that fossil echinoid delta18O is a viable archive of paleo-seawater temperature throughout Phanerozoic time, and that delta13C merits further investigation as a potential proxy of paleo-atmospheric pCO2. However, the apparent impact of calcification rate on echinoid delta18O and delta13C suggests that paleoceanographic reconstructions derived from these proxies in fossil echinoids could be improved by incorporating the effects of growth rate.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and calcification in the tropical urchin Echinometra viridis in a laboratory experiment

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) has risen from approximately 280 to 400 ppm since the Industrial Revolution, due mainly to the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation, and cement production. It is predicted to reach as high as 900 ppm by the end of this century. Ocean acidification resulting from the release of anthropogenic CO2 has been shown to impair the ability of some marine calcifiers to build their shells and skeletons. Here, we present the results of ocean acidification experiments designed to assess the effects of an increase in atmospheric pCO2 from ca. 448 to 827 ppm on calcification rates of the tropical urchin Echinometra viridis. Experiments were conducted under the urchin's winter (20 °C) and summer (30 °C) water temperatures in order to identify seasonal differences in the urchin's response to ocean acidification. The experiments reveal that calcification rates decreased for urchins reared under elevated pCO2, with the decline being more pronounced under wintertime temperatures than under summertime temperatures. These results indicate that the urchin E. viridis will be negatively impacted by CO2-induced ocean acidification that is predicted to occur by the end of this century. These results also suggest that impact of CO2-induced ocean acidification on urchin calcification will be more severe in the winter and in cooler waters.

R-codes, and coral abundance, water temperature and transect characteristics of nearshore reefs in Belize

Coral reefs are increasingly threatened by global and local anthropogenic stressors, such as rising seawater temperature and nutrient enrichment. These two stressors vary widely across the reef face and parsing out their influence on coral communities at reef system scales has been particularly challenging. Here, we investigate the influence of temperature and nutrients on coral community traits and life history strategies on lagoonal reefs across the Belize Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System (MBRS). A novel metric was developed using ultra-high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) to classify reefs as enduring low (lowTP), moderate (modTP), or extreme (extTP) temperature parameters over 10 years (2003 to 2012). Chlorophyll-a (chl a) records obtained for the same interval were employed as a proxy for bulk nutrients and these records were complemented with in situ measurements to "sea truth" nutrient content across the three reef types. Chl a concentrations were highest at extTP sites, medial at modTP sites and lowest at lowTP sites. Coral species richness, abundance, diversity, density, and percent cover were lower at extTP sites compared to lowTP and modTP sites, but these reef community traits did not differ between lowTP and modTP sites. Coral life history strategy analyses showed that extTP sites were dominated by hardy stress-tolerant and fast-growing weedy coral species, while lowTP and modTP sites consisted of competitive, generalist, weedy, and stress-tolerant coral species. These results suggest that differences in coral community traits and life history strategies between extTP and lowTP/modTP sites were driven primarily by temperature differences with differences in nutrients across site types playing a lesser role. Dominance of weedy and stress-tolerant genera at extTP sites suggests that corals utilizing these two life history strategies may be better suited to cope with warmer oceans and thus may warrant further protective status during this climate change interval. Data associated with this project are archived here, including: -SST data -Satellite Chl a data -Nutrient measurements -Raw coral community survey data For questions contact Justin Baumann (j.baumann3 gmail.com)

Mapped cetacean habitat suitability and richness in the Azores, links to ArcGIS files

Marine spatial planning and ecological research call for high-resolution species distribution data. However, those data are still not available for most marine large vertebrates. The dynamic nature of oceanographic processes and the wide-ranging behavior of many marine vertebrates create further difficulties, as distribution data must incorporate both the spatial and temporal dimensions. Cetaceans play an essential role in structuring and maintaining marine ecosystems and face increasing threats from human activities. The Azores holds a high diversity of cetaceans but the information about spatial and temporal patterns of distribution for this marine megafauna group in the region is still very limited. To tackle this issue, we created monthly predictive cetacean distribution maps for spring and summer months, using data collected by the Azores Fisheries Observer Programme between 2004 and 2009. We then combined the individual predictive maps to obtain species richness maps for the same period. Our results reflect a great heterogeneity in distribution among species and within species among different months. This heterogeneity reflects a contrasting influence of oceanographic processes on the distribution of cetacean species. However, some persistent areas of increased species richness could also be identified from our results. We argue that policies aimed at effectively protecting cetaceans and their habitats must include the principle of dynamic ocean management coupled with other area-based management such as marine spatial planning.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, calcification and dissolution response, and skeletal mineralogy of benthic orhanisms during experiments, 2011

Increasing atmospheric pCO2 reduces the saturation state of seawater with respect to the aragonite, high-Mg calcite (Mg/Ca > 0.04), and low-Mg calcite (Mg/Ca < 0.04) minerals from which marine calcifiers build their shells and skeletons. Notably, these polymorphs of CaCO3 have different solubilities in seawater: aragonite is more soluble than pure calcite, and the solubility of calcite increases with its Mg-content. Although much recent progress has been made investigating the effects of CO2-induced ocean acidification on rates of biological calcification, considerable uncertainties remain regarding impacts on shell/skeletal polymorph mineralogy. To investigate this subject, eighteen species of marine calcifiers were reared for 60-days in seawater bubbled with air-CO2 mixtures of 409 ± 6, 606 ± 7, 903 ± 12, and 2856 ± 54 ppm pCO2, yielding aragonite saturation states of 2.5 ± 0.4, 2.0 ± 0.4, 1.5 ± 0.3, and 0.7 ± 0.2. Calcite/aragonite ratios within bimineralic calcifiers increased with increasing pCO2, but were invariant within monomineralic calcifiers. Calcite Mg/Ca ratios (Mg/CaC) also varied with atmospheric pCO2 for two of the five high-Mg-calcite-producing organisms, but not for the low-Mg-calcite-producing organisms. These results suggest that shell/skeletal mineralogy within some-but not all-marine calcifiers will change as atmospheric pCO2 continues rising as a result of fossil fuel combustion and deforestation. Paleoceanographic reconstructions of seawater Mg/Ca, temperature, and salinity from the Mg/CaC of well-preserved calcitic marine fossils may also be improved by accounting for the effects of paleo-atmospheric pCO2 on skeletal Mg-fractionation.

Coral energy reserves and calcification in a high-CO2 world at two temperatures

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations threaten coral reefs globally by causing ocean acidification (OA) and warming. Yet, the combined effects of elevated pCO2 and temperature on coral physiology and resilience remain poorly understood. While coral calcification and energy reserves are important health indicators, no studies to date have measured energy reserve pools (i.e., lipid, protein, and carbohydrate) together with calcification under OA conditions under different temperature scenarios. Four coral species, Acropora millepora, Montipora monasteriata, Pocillopora damicornis, Turbinaria reniformis, were reared under a total of six conditions for 3.5 weeks, representing three pCO2 levels (382, 607, 741 µatm), and two temperature regimes (26.5, 29.0°C) within each pCO2 level. After one month under experimental conditions, only A. millepora decreased calcification (-53%) in response to seawater pCO2 expected by the end of this century, whereas the other three species maintained calcification rates even when both pCO2 and temperature were elevated. Coral energy reserves showed mixed responses to elevated pCO2 and temperature, and were either unaffected or displayed nonlinear responses with both the lowest and highest concentrations often observed at the mid-pCO2 level of 607 µatm. Biweekly feeding may have helped corals maintain calcification rates and energy reserves under these conditions. Temperature often modulated the response of many aspects of coral physiology to OA, and both mitigated and worsened pCO2 effects. This demonstrates for the first time that coral energy reserves are generally not metabolized to sustain calcification under OA, which has important implications for coral health and bleaching resilience in a high-CO2 world. Overall, these findings suggest that some corals could be more resistant to simultaneously warming and acidifying oceans than previously expected.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and hydrogen ions and carbonate chemistry in calcifying fluid of coral Astrangia poculata during experiments, 2011

A generalized physicochemical model of the response of marine organisms' calcifying fluids to CO2-induced ocean acidification is proposed. The model is based upon the hypothesis that some marine calcifiers induce calcification by elevating pH, and thus Omega aragonite, of their calcifying fluid by removing protons (H+). The model is explored through two end-member scenarios: one in which a fixed number of H+ is removed from their calcifying fluid, regardless of atmospheric pCO2, and another in which a fixed external-internal proton ratio ([H+]E/[H+]I) is maintained. The model is able to generate the full range of calcification response patterns observed in prior ocean acidification experiments and is consistent with the assertion that organisms' calcification response to ocean acidification is more negative for marine calcifiers that exert weaker control over their calcifying fluid pH. The model is empirically evaluated for the temperate scleractinian coral Astrangia poculata with in situ pH microelectrode measurements of the coral's calcifying fluid under control and acidified conditions. These measurements reveal that (1) the pH of the coral's calcifying fluid is substantially elevated relative to its external seawater under both control and acidified conditions, (2) the coral's [H+]E/[H+]I remains constant under control and acidified conditions, and (3) the coral removes fewer H+ from its calcifying fluid under acidified conditions than under control conditions. Thus, the carbonate system dynamics of A. poculata's calcifying fluid appear to be most consistent with the fixed [H+]E/[H+]I end-member scenario. Similar microelectrode experiments performed on additional taxa are required to assess the model's general applicability.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with coral Oculina arbuscula, 2010

Anthropogenic elevation of atmospheric pCO2 is predicted to cause the pH of surface seawater to decline by 0.3-0.4 units by 2100 AD, causing a 50% reduction in seawater [CO3] and undersaturation with respect to aragonite in high-latitude surface waters. We investigated the impact of CO2-induced ocean acidification on the temperate scleractinian coral Oculina arbuscula by rearing colonies for 60 days in experimental seawaters bubbled with air-CO2 gas mixtures of 409, 606, 903, and 2,856 ppm pCO2, yielding average aragonite saturation states (Omega aragonite) of 2.6, 2.3, 1.6, and 0.8. Measurement of calcification (via buoyant weighing) and linear extension (relative to a 137Ba/138Ba spike) revealed that skeletal accretion was only minimally impaired by reductions in Omega aragonite from 2.6 to 1.6, although major reductions were observed at 0.8 (undersaturation). Notably, the corals continued accreting new skeletal material even in undersaturated conditions, although at reduced rates. Correlation between rates of linear extension and calcification suggests that reduced calcification under Omega aragonite = 0.8 resulted from reduced aragonite accretion, rather than from localized dissolution. Accretion of pure aragonite under each Omega aragonite discounts the possibility that these corals will begin producing calcite, a less soluble form of CaCO3, as the oceans acidify. The corals' nonlinear response to reduced Omega aragonite and their ability to accrete new skeletal material in undersaturated conditions suggest that they strongly control the biomineralization process. However, our data suggest that a threshold seawater [CO3] exists, below which calcification within this species (and possibly others) becomes impaired. Indeed, the strong negative response of O. arbuscula to Omega aragonite= 0.8 indicates that their response to future pCO2-induced ocean acidification could be both abrupt and severe once the critical Omega aragoniteis reached.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, structural and chemical characteristics of the seagrass Thalassia testudinum in an situ CO2 enrichment experiment

Seagrasses commonly display carbon-limited photosynthetic rates. Thus, increases in atmospheric pCO2, and consequentially oceanic CO2(aq) concentrations, may prove beneficial. While addressed in mesocosms, these hypotheses have not been tested in the field with manipulative experimentation. This study examines the effects of in situ CO2(aq) enrichment on the structural and chemical characteristics of the tropical seagrass, Thalassia testudinum. CO2(aq) availability was manipulated for 6 months in clear, open-top chambers within a shallow seagrass meadow in the Florida Keys (USA), reproducing forecasts for the year 2100. Structural characteristics (leaf area, leaf growth, shoot mass, and shoot density) were unresponsive to CO2(aq) enrichment. However, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus content declined on average by 11 and 21 %, respectively. Belowground, non-structural carbohydrates increased by 29 %. These results indicate that increased CO2(aq) availability may primarily alter the chemical composition of seagrasses, influencing both the nutrient status and resilience of these systems.