Global LAI uncertainty and relative uncertainty datasets derived from a Triple Collocation Error Model (TCEM)

Uncertainty information for global leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global modeling studies but usually difficult to systematically obtain at a global scale. Here, we present a new method that cross-validates existing global LAI products and produces consistent uncertainty information. The method is based on a triple collocation error model (TCEM) that assumes errors among LAI products are not correlated. Global monthly absolute and relative uncertainties, in 0.05° spatial resolutions, were generated for MODIS, CYCLOPES, and GLOBCARBON LAI products, with reasonable agreement in terms of spatial patterns and biome types. CYCLOPES shows the lowest absolute and relative uncertainties, followed by GLOBCARBON and MODIS. Grasses, crops, shrubs, and savannas usually have lower uncertainties than forests in association with the relatively larger forest LAI. With their densely vegetated canopies, tropical regions exhibit the highest absolute uncertainties but the lowest relative uncertainties, the latter of which tend to increase with higher latitudes. The estimated uncertainties of CYCLOPES generally meet the quality requirements (± 0.5) proposed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), whereas for MODIS and GLOBCARBON only non-forest biome types have met the requirement. Nevertheless, none of the products seems to be within a relative uncertainty requirements of 20%. Further independent validation and comparative studies are expected to provide a fair assessment of uncertainties derived from TCEM. Overall, the proposed TCEM is straightforward and could be automated for the systematic processing of real time remote sensing observations to provide theoretical uncertainty information for a wider range of land products.

Radiocarbon ages and diatom isotope data for Lake El'gygytgyn sediment core Lz1029

Determining the response of sites within the Arctic Circle to long-term climatic change remains an essential pre-requisite for assessing the susceptibility of these regions to future global warming and Arctic amplification. To date, existing records from North East Russia have demonstrated significant spatial variability across the region during the late Quaternary. Here we present diatom d18O and d30Si data from Lake El'gygytgyn, Russia, and suggest environmental changes that would have impacted across West Beringia from the Last Glacial Maximum to the modern day. In combination with other records, the results raise the potential for climatic teleconnections to exist between the region and sites in the North Atlantic. The presence of a series of 2-3 per mil decreases in d18Odiatom during both the Last Glacial and the Holocene indicates the sensitivity of the region to perturbations in the global climate system. Evidence of an unusually long Holocene thermal maximum from 11.4 ka BP to 7.6 ka BP is followed by a cooling trend through the remainder of the Holocene in response to changes in solar insolation. This is culminated over the last 900 years by a significant decrease in d18Odiatom of 2.3 per mil, which may be related to a strengthening and easterly shift of the Aleutian Low in addition to possible changes in precipitation seasonality.