Seawater carbonate chemistry and physiological response of the Mediterranean crustose coralline alga Lithophyllum cabiochae to elevated pCO2 and temperature

The response of respiration, photosynthesis, and calcification to elevated pCO2 and temperature was investigated in isolation and in combination in the Mediterranean crustose coralline alga Lithophyllum cabiochae. Algae were maintained in aquaria during 1 year at near-ambient conditions of irradiance, at ambient or elevated temperature (+3 °C), and at ambient (ca. 400 µatm) or elevated pCO2 (ca. 700 µatm). Respiration, photosynthesis, and net calcification showed a strong seasonal pattern following the seasonal variations of temperature and irradiance, with higher rates in summer than in winter. Respiration was unaffected by pCO2 but showed a general trend of increase at elevated temperature at all seasons, except in summer under elevated pCO2. Conversely, photosynthesis was strongly affected by pCO2 with a decline under elevated pCO2 in summer, autumn, and winter. In particular, photosynthetic efficiency was reduced under elevated pCO2. Net calcification showed different responses depending on the season. In summer, net calcification increased with rising temperature under ambient pCO2 but decreased with rising temperature under elevated pCO2. Surprisingly, the highest rates in summer were found under elevated pCO2 and ambient temperature. In autumn, winter, and spring, net calcification exhibited a positive or no response at elevated temperature but was unaffected by pCO2. The rate of calcification of L. cabiochae was thus maintained or even enhanced under increased pCO2. However, there is likely a trade-off with other physiological processes. For example, photosynthesis declines in response to increased pCO2 under ambient irradiance. The present study reports only on the physiological response of healthy specimens to ocean warming and acidification, however, these environmental changes may affect the vulnerability of coralline algae to other stresses such as pathogens and necroses that can cause major dissolution, which would have critical consequence for the sustainability of coralligenous habitats and the budgets of carbon and calcium carbonate in coastal Mediterranean ecosystems.

Preconditioning in the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization in coral larvae under future climate change conditions

Coral reefs are globally threatened by climate change-related ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA). To date, slow-response mechanisms such as genetic adaptation have been considered the major determinant of coral reef persistence, with little consideration of rapid-response acclimatization mechanisms. These rapid mechanisms such as parental effects that can contribute to trans-generational acclimatization (e.g. epigenetics) have, however, been identified as important contributors to offspring response in other systems. We present the first evidence of parental effects in a cross-generational exposure to temperature and OA in reef-building corals. Here, we exposed adults to high (28.9°C, 805 µatm PCO2) or ambient (26.5°C, 417 µatm PCO2) temperature and OA treatments during the larval brooding period. Exposure to high treatment negatively affected adult performance, but their larvae exhibited size differences and metabolic acclimation when subsequently re-exposed, unlike larvae from parents exposed to ambient conditions. Understanding the innate capacity corals possess to respond to current and future climatic conditions is essential to reef protection and maintenance. Our results identify that parental effects may have an important role through (1) ameliorating the effects of stress through preconditioning and adaptive plasticity, and/or (2) amplifying the negative parental response through latent effects on future life stages. Whether the consequences of parental effects and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization are beneficial or maladaptive, our work identifies a critical need to expand currently proposed climate change outcomes for corals to further assess rapid response mechanisms that include non-genetic inheritance through parental contributions and classical epigenetic mechanisms.

Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Results of Heinrich event 1 simulation from the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3)

We investigated changes in tropical climate and vegetation cover associated with abrupt climate change during Heinrich Event 1 (HE1, ca. 17.5 ka BP) using two different global climate models: the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Tropical South American and African pollen records suggest that the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean during HE1 influenced the tropics through a southward shift of the rain belt. In this study, we simulated the HE1 by applying a freshwater perturbation to the North Atlantic Ocean. The resulting slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation was followed by a temperature seesaw between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. The shift and the response pattern of the tropical vegetation around the Atlantic Ocean were more pronounced in the CCSM3 than in the UVic ESCM simulation. For tropical South America, opposite changes in tree and grass cover were modeled around 10° S in the CCSM3 but not in the UVic ESCM. In tropical Africa, the grass cover increased and the tree cover decreased around 15° N in the UVic ESCM and around 10° N in the CCSM3. In the CCSM3 model, the tree and grass cover in tropical Southeast Asia responded to the abrupt climate change during the HE1, which could not be found in the UVic ESCM. The biome distributions derived from both models corroborate findings from pollen records in southwestern and equatorial western Africa as well as northeastern Brazil.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Solar sensitivity experiments for the pre-industrial time period using the comprehensive global climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model 3)

The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate. The possible influence of solar forcing on SWW variability during the Holocene is addressed. Solar sensitivity experiments with a comprehensive global climate model (CCSM3) are carried out to study the response of SWW to solar variability. In addition, It is shown that a high-resolution iron record from the Chilean continental slope (41° S), which is interpreted to reflect changes in the position of the SWW, is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity during the past 3000 years. Taken together, the proxy and model results suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the annual mean SWW.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Surface wind stress modeled for the Panama Seaway with the Community Climate System Model 3

The early Pliocene warm phase was characterized by high sea surface temperatures and a deep thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific. A new hypothesis suggests that the progressive closure of the Panamanian seaway contributed substantially to the termination of this zonally symmetric state in the equatorial Pacific. According to this hypothesis, intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) - induced by the closure of the gateway - was the principal cause of equatorial Pacific thermocline shoaling during the Pliocene. In this study, twelve Panama seaway sensitivity experiments from eight ocean/climate models of different complexity are analyzed to examine the effect of an open gateway on AMOC strength and thermocline depth. All models show an eastward Panamanian net throughflow, leading to a reduction in AMOC strength compared to the corresponding closed-Panama case. In those models that do not include a dynamic atmosphere, deepening of the equatorial Pacific thermocline appears to scale almost linearly with the throughflow-induced reduction in AMOC strength. Models with dynamic atmosphere do not follow this simple relation. There are indications that in four out of five models equatorial wind-stress anomalies amplify the tropical Pacific thermocline deepening. In summary, the models provide strong support for the hypothesized relationship between Panama closure and equatorial Pacific thermocline shoaling.

Pollen data and pollen-based climate reconstruction for the KTK1 pollen record from Lake Kotokel

In this study a radiocarbon-dated pollen record from Lake Kotokel (52°47' N, 108°07' E, 458 m a.s.l.) located in southern Siberia east of Lake Baikal was used to derive quantitative characteristics of regional vegetation and climate from about 15 kyr BP (1 kyr = 1000 cal. yr) until today. Quantitative reconstruction of the late glacial vegetation and climate dynamics suggests that open steppe and tundra communities predominated in the study area prior to ca. 13.5 kyr BP and again during the Younger Dryas interval, between 12.8 and 11.6 kyr BP. The pollen-based climate reconstruction suggests lower-than-present mean January (~ -38 °C) and July (~ 12 °C) temperatures and annual precipitation (~ 270-300 mm) values during these time intervals. Boreal woodland replaced the primarily open landscape around Kotokel three times at about 14.8-14.7 kyr BP, during the Allerød Interstadial between 13.3-12.8 kyr BP and with the onset of the Holocene interglacial between 11.5 and 10.5 kyr BP, presumably in response to a noticeable increase in precipitation, and in July and January temperatures. The maximal spread of the boreal forest (taiga) communities in the region is associated with a warmer and wetter-than-present climate (Tw ~ 17-18 °C, Tc ~ -19 °C, Pann ~ 500-550 mm) that occurred ca. 10.8-7.3 kyr BP. During this time interval woody vegetation covered more than 50 % of the area within a 21x21 km window around the lake. The pollen-based best modern analogue reconstruction suggests a decrease in woody cover percentages and in all climatic variables about 7-6.5 kyr BP. Our results demonstrate a gradual decrease in precipitation and mean January temperature towards their present-day values in the region around Lake Kotokel since that time.

The morphological response of Emiliania huxleyi to seawater carbonate chemistry changes: an inter-strain comparison

Four strains of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi (RCC1212, RCC1216, RCC1238, RCC1256) were grown in dilute batch culture at four CO2 levels ranging from ~200 µatm to ~1200 µatm. Coccolith morphology was analyzed based on scanning electron micrographs. Three of the four strains did not exhibit a change in morphology over the CO2 range tested. One strain (RCC1256) displayed an increase in the percentage of malformed coccoliths with increasing CO2 concentration. We conclude that the sensitivity of the coccolith-shaping machinery to carbonate chemistry changes is strain-specific. Although it has been shown before that carbonate chemistry related changes in growth- and calcification rate are strain-specific, there seems to be no consistent correlation between coccolith morphology and growth or calcification rate. We did not observe an increase in the percentage of incomplete coccoliths in RCC1256, indicating that the coccolith-shaping machinery per se is affected by acidification and not the signalling pathway that produces the stop-signal for coccolith growth.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.