Seal census raw data during POLARSTERN expedition ANT-XV/3 (PS48)

The density, species composition, and possible change in the status of pack ice seals within the Weddell Sea were investigated during the 1997/1998 summer cruise of the RV "Polarstern" (ANT-XV/3, PS48). Comparisons were made with previous surveys in the Weddell Sea where it was assumed that all seals were counted in a narrow strip on either side oft he ship or aircraft. A total of 15 aerial censuses were flown during the period 23 January - 7 March 1998 in the area bounded by 07°08' and 45°33' West longitude. The censused area in the eastern Weddell Sea was largely devoid of pack ice while a well circumscribed pack ice field remained in the western Weddell Sea. A total of 3,636 (95.4 %) crabeater seals, 21 (0.5 %) Ross seals, 45 (1.2 %) leopard seals and 111 (2.9 %) Weddell seals were observed on the pack ice during a total of 1,356.57 linear nautical miles (244.2 nm) of transect line censused. At a mean density of 21.16 1/nm**2 over an area of 244.2 nm, it is the highest densities on record for crabeater seals, density of up to 411.7 1/nm**2 being found in small areas. The overall high densities of seals (30.18 1/nm**2) recorded for the eastern Weddell Sea (27.46 1/nm**2, 0.27 1/nm**2, and 0.66 1/nm**2 for crabeater, leopard and Weddell seals respectively) is a consequence of the drastically reduced ice cover and the inverse relationship that exists between cover and seal densities. Ross seal densities (0.08 1/nm**2) were the lowest on record fort the area. It is suggested that seals largely remain within the confines of the pack ice despite seasonal and annual changes in its distribution. Indications are that in 1998 the El Niño has manifested itself in the Weddell Sea, markedly influencing the density and distribution of pack ice seals.

DISPRO datasets for validation of coastal hydrodynamic models

Appropriate field data are required to check the reliability of hydrodynamic models simulating the dispersion of soluble substances in the marine environment. This study deals with the collection of physical measurements and soluble tracer data intended specifically for this kind of validation. The intensity of currents as well as the complexity of topography and tides around the Cap de La Hague in the center of the English Channel makes it one of the most difficult areas to represent in terms of hydrodynamics and dispersion. Controlled releases of tritium - in the form of HTO - are carried out in this area by the AREVA-NC plant, providing an excellent soluble tracer. A total of 14 493 measurements were acquired to track dispersion in the hours and days following a release. These data, supplementing previously gathered data and physical measurements (bathymetry, water-surface levels, Eulerian and Lagrangian current studies) allow us to test dispersion models from the hour following release to periods of several years which are not accessible with dye experiments. The dispersion characteristics are described and methods are proposed for comparing models against measurements. An application is proposed for a 2 dimensions high-resolution numerical model. It shows how an extensive dataset can be used to build, calibrate and validate several aspects of the model in a highly dynamic and macrotidal area: tidal cycle timing, tidal amplitude, fixed-point current data, hodographs. This study presents results concerning the model's ability to reproduce residual Lagrangian currents, along with a comparison between simulation and high-frequency measurements of tracer dispersion. Physical and tracer data are available from the SISMER database of IFREMER (www.ifremer.fr/sismer/catal). This tool for validation of models in macro-tidal seas is intended to be an open and evolving resource, which could provide a benchmark for dispersion model validation.

Respiration rates and electron transport system activities of copepod species obtained during Maria S. Merian cruise MSM17/3

Respiration rates and electron transport system (ETS) activities were measured in dominant copepod species from the northern Benguela upwelling system in January-February 2011 to assess the accuracy of the ETS assay in predicting in vivo respiration rates. Individual respiration rates varied from 0.06 to 1.60 µL O2/h/ind, while ETS activities converted to oxygen consumption ranged from 0.14 to 4.46 µL O2/h/ind. ETS activities were significantly correlated with respiration rates (r**2 = 0.79, p = 0.0001). R:ETS ratios were lowest in slow-moving Eucalanidae (0.11) and highest in diapausing Calanoides carinatus copepodids CV (0.76) while fast-moving copepods showed intermediate R:ETS (0.23-0.37). 82% of the variance of respiration rates could be explained by differences in dry mass, temperature and the activity level of different copepod species. Three regression equations were derived to calculate respiration rates for diapausing, slow- and fast-moving copepods, respectively, based on parameters such as body mass and temperature. Thus, knowledge about the activity level and behavioral characteristics of copepod species can significantly increase the predictive accuracy of metabolic models, which will help to better understand and quantify the impact of copepods on nutrient and carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems.

Age models of upper Pliocene samples of the North Atlantic

Abundance variations of six Pliocene species of discoasters have been analyzed over the time interval from 1.89 to 2.95 Ma at five contrasting sites in the North Atlantic: Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 552 (56°N) and 607 (41°N) and Ocean Drilling Program 658 (20°N), 659 (18°N), and 662 (1°S). A sampling interval equivalent to approximately 3 k.y. was used. Total Discoaster abundance showed a reduction with increasing latitude and from the effects of upwelling. This phenomenon is most obvious in Discoaster brouweri, the only species that survived over the entire time interval studied. Prior to 2.38 Ma, Discoaster pentaradiatus and Discoaster surculus are important components of the Discoaster assemblage: Discoaster pentaradiatus increases slightly with latitude up to 41°N, and its abundance relative to D. brouweri increases up to 56°N; D. surculus increases in abundance with latitude and with upwelling conditions relative to both D. brouweri and D. pentaradiatus and is dominant to the latter species at upwelling Site 658 and at the highest latitude sites. Discoaster asymmetricus and Discoaster tamalis appear to increase in abundance with latitude relative to D. brouweri. Many of the abundance changes observed appear to be connected with the initiation of glaciation in the North Atlantic at 2.4 Ma. The long-term trend of decreasing Discoaster abundance probably reflects the fall of sea-surface temperatures. This trend of cooling is overprinted by short-term variations that are probably associated with orbital forcing. Evidence for the astronomical elements of eccentricity and obliquity periodicities were found at all sites; however, only at Sites 607, 659, and 662 were precessional periodicities detected. Furthermore, only at Site 659 was precession found to be dominant to obliquity. Abundance peaks of individual species were found to cross-correlate between sites. The distinct abundance fluctuations observed especially in the tropics suggest that temperature is not the only factor responsible for this variation. This study reveals for the first time the importance of productivity pressure on the suppression of Discoaster abundance.

Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Sediment organic matter, grain size, and results of prediction models from northern North Atlantic and Arctic Seas

Sediment samples and hydrographic conditions were studied at 28 stations around Iceland. At these sites, Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) casts were conducted to collect hydrographic data and multicorer casts were conductd to collect data on sediment characteristics including grain size distribution, carbon and nitrogen concentration, and chloroplastic pigment concentration. A total of 14 environmental predictors were used to model sediment characteristics around Iceland on regional geographic space. For these, two approaches were used: Multivariate Adaptation Regression Splines (MARS) and randomForest regression models. RandomForest outperformed MARS in predicting grain size distribution. MARS models had a greater tendency to over- and underpredict sediment values in areas outside the environmental envelope defined by the training dataset. We provide first GIS layers on sediment characteristics around Iceland, that can be used as predictors in future models. Although models performed well, more samples, especially from the shelf areas, will be needed to improve the models in future.

Helium isotope ratios and sedimentation rate models of ODP holes

A continuous age model for the brief climate excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary has been constructed by assuming a constant flux of extraterrestrial 3He (3He[ET]) to the seafloor. 3He[ET] measurements from ODP Site 690 provide quantitative evidence for the rapid onset (models indicating extremely rapid release of isotopically light carbon, possibly from seafloor methane hydrate, as the proximal cause of the event. However, the 3He[ET] technique indicates a previously unrecognized and extreme increase in sedimentation rate coincident with the return of climate proxies to pre-event values. The 3He[ET]-based age model thus suggests a far more rapid recovery from the climatic perturbation than previously proposed or predicted on the basis of the modern carbon cycle, and so may indicate additional or accelerated mechanisms of carbon removal from the ocean-atmosphere system during this period. 3He[ET] was also measured at ODP Site 1051 to test the validity of the Site 690 chronology. Comparison of these data sets seems to require removal of several tens of kyr of sediment within the climatic excursion at Site 1051, an observation consistent with sediment structures and previous age modeling efforts. The Site 1051 age model shows a ~30 kyr period in which climate proxies return toward pre-event values, after which they remain invariant for ~80 kyr. If this rise represents the recovery interval identified at Site 690, then the 3HeET-based age models of the two sites are in good agreement. However, alternative interpretations are possible, and work on less disrupted sites is required to evaluate the reliability of the proposed new chronology of the climate excursion. Regardless of these details, this work shows that the 3HeET technique can provide useful independent evidence for the development and testing of astronomically calibrated age models.

Age models of sediment cores from the continental margin of northwest Africa

Diatom abundance and species composition were quantitatively studied in two latest Quaternary (~130 ka to the Present) sequences from the continental margin of northwest Africa. Off this region, coastal upwelling is well developed under the influence of the NE trade winds. Variations in diatom abundance in these cores are inferred to represent changes caused by varying degrees of the upwelling fertility. Times of high productivity are marked by high relative frequencies of Chaetoceros, while low productivity is marked by the dominance of Aulacoseira granulata. Upwelling increased during glacial episodes (isotopic stages 2-4 and 6) relative to isotopic stages 1 and 5. During the late Holocene, primary productivity levels are similar to those for Stage 5, but in the early Holocene upwelling intensities seem to have been weaker than today. The paleoproductivity reconstruction based on the diatom record is supported by paleoproductivity estimations based on the organic carbon content of the sediments (Sarnthein et al., 1987).

Age models for sediment cores in the eastern tropical Pacific

We present new high-resolution N isotope records from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Nicaragua Basin spanning the last 50-70 ka. The Tehuantepec site is situated within the core of the north subtropical denitrification zone while the Nicaragua site is at the southern boundary. The d15N record from Nicaragua shows an 'Antarctic' timing similar to denitrification changes observed off Peru-Chile but is radically different from the northern records. We attribute this to the leakage of isotopically heavy nitrate from the South Pacific oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) into the Nicaragua Basin. The Nicaragua record leads the other eastern tropical North Pacific (ETNP) records by about 1000 years because denitrification peaks in the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP) before denitrification starts to increase in the Northern Hemisphere OMZ, i.e., during warming episodes in Antarctica. We find that the influence of the heavy nitrate leakage from the ETSP is still noticeable, although attenuated, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec record, particularly at the end of the Heinrich events, and tends to alter the recording of millennial timescale denitrification changes in the ETNP. This implies (1) that sedimentary d15N records from the southern parts of the ETNP cannot be used straightforwardly as a proxy for local denitrification and (2) that denitrification history in the ETNP, like in the Arabian Sea, is synchronous with Greenland temperature changes. These observations reinforce the conclusion that on millennial timescales during the last ice age, denitrification in the ETNP is strongly influenced by climatic variations that originated in the high-latitude North Atlantic region, while commensurate changes in Southern Ocean hydrography more directly, and slightly earlier, affected oxygen concentrations in the ETSP. Furthermore, the d15N records imply ongoing physical communication across the equator in the shallow subsurface continuously over the last 50-70 ka.

Age models and stable isotope analysis on sediment core Site 199-1218 from the equatorial Pacific

A 13-million-year continuous record of Oligocene climate from the equatorial Pacific reveals a pronounced "heartbeat" in the global carbon cycle and periodicity of glaciations. This heartbeat consists of 405,000-, 127,000-, and 96,000-year eccentricity cycles and 1.2-million-year obliquity cycles in periodically recurring glacial and carbon cycle events. That climate system response to intricate orbital variations suggests a fundamental interaction of the carbon cycle, solar forcing, and glacial events. Box modeling shows that the interaction of the carbon cycle and solar forcing modulates deep ocean acidity as well as the production and burial of global biomass. The pronounced 405,000-year eccentricity cycle is amplified by the long residence time of carbon in the oceans.

Age models for ODP Leg 172 sites

Ten ODP sites drilled in a depth transect (2164-4775 m water depth) during Leg 172 recovered high-deposition rate (>20 cm/kyr) sedimentary sections from sediment drifts in the western North Atlantic. For each site an age model covering the past 0.8-0.9 Ma has been developed. The time scales have a resolution of 10-20 kyr and are derived by tuning variations of estimated carbonate content to the orbital parameters precession and obliquity. Based on the similarity in the signature of proxy records and the spectral character of the time series, the sites are divided into two groups: precession cycles are better developed in carbonate records from a group of shallow sites (2164-2975 m water depth, Sites 1055-1058) while the deeper sites (2995-4775 m water depth, Sites 1060-1063) are characterized by higher spectral density in the obliquity band. The resulting time scales show excellent coherence with other dated carbonate and isotope records from low latitudes. Besides the typical Milankovitch cyclicity significant variance of the resulting carbonate time series is concentrated at millennial-scale changes with periods of about 12, 6, 4, 2.5, and 1.5 kyr. Comparisons of carbonate records from the Blake Bahama Outer Ridge and the Bermuda Rise reveal a remarkable similarity in the time and frequency domain indicating a basin-wide uniform sedimentation pattern during the last 0.9 Ma.

Three species distribution models for the marine diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis of the Southern Ocean, links to NetCDF files

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.