370 resultados para multiple change-points
Resumo:
The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.
Resumo:
Increased anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the last two centuries have lead to rising sea surface temperature and falling ocean pH, and it is predicted that current global trends will worsen over the next few decades. There is limited understanding of how genetic variation among individuals will influence the responses of populations and species to these changes. A microcosm system was set up to study the effects of predicted temperature and CO2 levels on the bryozoan Celleporella hyalina. In this marine species, colonies grow by the addition of male, female and feeding modular individuals (zooids) and can be physically subdivided to produce a clone of genetically identical colonies. We studied colony growth rate (the addition of zooids), reproductive investment (the ratio of sexual to feeding zooids) and sex ratio (male to female zooids) in four genetically distinct clonal lines. There was a significant effect of clone on growth rate, reproductive investment and sex ratio, with clones showing contrasting responses to the various temperature and pH combinations. Overall, decreasing pH and increasing temperature caused reduction of growth, and eventual cessation of growth was often observed at the highest temperature, especially during the latter half of the 15-day trials. Reproductive investment increased with increasing temperature and decreasing pH, varying more widely with temperature at the lowest pH. The increased production of males, a general stress response of the bryozoan, was seen upon exposure to reduced pH, but was not expressed at the highest temperature tested, presumably due to the frequent cessation of growth. Further to the significant effect of pH on the measured whole-colony parameters, observation by scanning electron microscopy revealed surface pitting of the calcified exoskeleton in colonies that were exposed to increased acidity. Studying ecologically relevant processes of growth and reproduction, we demonstrate the existence of relevant levels of variation among genetic individuals which may enable future adaptation via non-mutational natural selection to falling pH and rising temperature.
Resumo:
The Arctic Ocean and its associated ecosystems face numerous challenges over the coming century. Increasing atmospheric CO2 is causing increasing warming and ice melting as well as a concomitant change in ocean chemistry ("ocean acidification"). As temperature increases it is expected that many temperate species will expand their geographic distribution northwards to follow this thermal shift; however with the addition of ocean acidification this transition may not be so straightforward. Here we investigate the potential impacts of ocean acidification and climate change on populations of an intertidal species, in this case the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides, at the northern edge of its range. Growth and development of metamorphosing post-larvae were negatively impacted at lower pH (pH 7.7) compared to the control (pH 8.1) but were not affected by elevated temperature (+4 °C). The mineral composition of the shells did not alter under any of the treatments. The combination of reduced growth and maintained mineral content suggests that there may have been a change in the energetic balance of the exposed animals. In undersaturated conditions more mineral is expected to dissolve from the shell and hence more energy would be required to maintain the mineral integrity. Any energy that would normally be invested into growth could be reallocated and hence organisms growing in lowered pH grow slower and end up smaller than individuals grown in higher pH conditions. The idea of reallocation of resources under different conditions of pH requires further investigation. However, there could be long-term implications on the fitness of these barnacles, which in turn may prevent them from successfully colonising new areas.
Resumo:
Cephalopods play a key role in many marine trophic networks and constitute alternative fisheries resources, especially given the ongoing decline in finfish stocks. Along the European coast, the eggs of the cuttlefish Sepia officinalis are characterized by an increasing permeability of the eggshell during development, which leads to selective accumulation of essential and non-essential elements in the embryo. Temperature and pH are two critical factors that affect the metabolism of marine organisms in the coastal shallow waters. In this study, we investigated the effects of pH and temperature through a crossed (3?2; pH 8.1 (pCO2, 400 ppm), 7.85 (900 ppm) and 7.6 (1400 ppm) at 16 and 19°C, respectively) laboratory experiment. Seawater pH showed a strong effect on the egg weight and non-significant impact on the weight of hatchlings at the end of development implying an egg swelling process and embryo growth disturbances. The lower the seawater pH, the more 110 mAg was accumulated in the tissues of hatchlings. The 109Cd concentration factor (CF) decreased with decreasing pH and 65Zn CF reached maximal values pH 7.85, independently of temperature. Our results suggest that pH and temperature affected both the permeability properties of the eggshell and embryonic metabolism. To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first studies on the consequences of ocean acidification and ocean warming on metal uptake in marine organisms, and our results indicate the need to further evaluate the likely ecotoxicological impact of the global change on the early-life stages of the cuttlefish.
Resumo:
The combination of elevated CO2 and the increased acidity in surface oceans is likely to have an impact on photosynthesis via its effects on inorganic carbon speciation and on the overall energetics of phytoplankton. Exposure to UV radiation (UVR) may also have a role in the response to elevated CO2 and acidification, due to the fact that UVR may variously impact on photosynthesis and because of the energy demand of UVR defense. The cell may gain energy by down-regulating the CO2 concentrating mechanism, which may lead to a greater ability to cope with UVR and/or higher growth rates. In order to clarify the interplay of cell responses to increasing CO2 and UVR, we investigated the photosynthetic response of the marine and estuarine diatom Cylindrotheca closterium f. minutissima cultured at either 390 (ambient) or 800 (elevated) ppmv CO2, while exposed to solar radiation with or without UVR (UVR, 280-400 nm). After a 6 day acclimation period, the growth rate of cells was little affected by elevated CO2 and no obvious correlation with the radiation dose (for both PAR and PAR + UV treatments) could be detected. However, the relative electron transport rate was reduced and was more sensitive to UVR in cells main - tained at elevated CO2 as compared to cells cultured at ambient CO2. The CO2 concentrating mechanism was down regulated at 800 ppmv CO2, but was apparently not completely switched off. These data are discussed with respect to their significance in the context of global climate change.
Resumo:
We present a Younger Dryas-Holocene record of the hydrogen isotopic composition of sedimentary plant waxes (dDwax) from the southern European Alps (Lake Ghirla, N-Italy) to investigate its sensitivity to climatic forcing variations in this mid-latitude region (45°N). A modern altitudinal transect of dD values of river water and leaf waxes in the Lake Ghirla catchment is used to test present-day climate sensitivity of dDwax. While we find that altitudinal effects on dDwax are minor at our study site, temperature, precipitation amount, and evapotranspiration all appear to influence dDwax to varying extents. In the lake-sediment record, dDwax values vary between -134 and -180 per mil over the past 13 kyr. The long-term Holocene pattern of dDwax parallels the trend of decreasing temperature and is thus likely forced by the decline of northern hemisphere summer insolation. Shorter-term fluctuations, in contrast, may reflect both temperature and moisture-source changes. During the cool Younger Dryas and Little Ice Age (LIA) periods we observe unexpectedly high dDwax values relative to those before and after. We suggest that a change towards a more D-enriched moisture source is required during these intervals. In fact, a shift from northern N-Atlantic to southern N-Atlantic/western Mediterranean Sea sources would be consistent with a southward migration of the Westerlies with climate cooling. Prominent dDwax fluctuations in the early and middle Holocene are negative and potentially associated with temperature declines. In the late Holocene (<4 kyr BP), excursions are partly positive (as for the LIA) suggesting a stronger influence of moisture-source changes on dDwax variation. In addition to isotopic fractionations of the hydrological cycle, changes in vegetation composition, in the length of the growing season, and in snowfall amount provide additional potential sources of variability, although we cannot yet quantitatively assess these in the paleo-record. We conclude that while our dDwax record from the Alps does contain climatic information, it is a complicated record that would require additional constraints to be robustly interpreted. This also has important implications for other water-isotope-based proxy records of precipitation and hydro-climate from this region, such as cave speleothems.
Resumo:
The filamentous and diazotrophic cyanobacterium Nodularia spumigena plays a major role in the productivity of the Baltic Sea as it forms extensive blooms regularly. Under phosphorus limiting conditions Nodularia spumigena has a high enzyme affinity for dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) by production and release of alkaline phosphatase. Additionally, it is able to degrade proteinaceous compounds by expressing the extracellular enzyme leucine aminopeptidase. As atmospheric CO2 concentrations are increasing, we expect marine phytoplankton to experience changes in several environmental parameters including pH, temperature, and nutrient availability. The aim of this study was to investigate the combined effect of CO2-induced changes in seawater carbonate chemistry and of phosphate deficiency on the exudation of organic matter, and its subsequent recycling by extracellular enzymes in a Nodularia spumigena culture. Batch cultures of Nodularia spumigena were grown for 15 days aerated with three different pCO2 levels corresponding to values from glacial periods to future values projected for the year 2100. Extracellular enzyme activities as well as changes in organic and inorganic compound concentrations were monitored. CO2 treatment-related effects were identified for cyanobacterial growth, which in turn was influencing exudation and recycling of organic matter by extracellular enzymes. Biomass production was increased by 56.5% and 90.7% in the medium and high pCO2 treatment, respectively, compared to the low pCO2 treatment and simultaneously increasing exudation. During the growth phase significantly more mucinous substances accumulated in the high pCO2 treatment reaching 363 µg Gum Xanthan eq /l compared to 269 µg Gum Xanthan eq /l in the low pCO2 treatment. However, cell-specific rates did not change. After phosphate depletion, the acquisition of P from DOP by alkaline phosphatase was significantly enhanced. Alkaline phosphatase activities were increased by factor 1.64 and 2.25, respectively, in the medium and high compared to the low pCO2 treatment. In conclusion, our results suggest that Nodularia spumigena can grow faster under elevated pCO2 by enhancing the recycling of organic matter to acquire nutrients.